Transport of Central Asia: big dreams, little progress

Abstract

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the region of Central Asian experienced a severe economic downturn with massive effects on social conditions. The depression of the local economy also drastically reduced the demand for transport. In Central Asia, five completely new countries with 49 million inhabitants emerged in 1993, which have grown to 70 million people to date. Independence required new economic trade relations, which in turn demanded new transport corridors. The Central Asian region is unique in the world with its very low population density of 18 people per km². This region is not only landlocked, but is furthest away from any oceans, and the distances within the region are enormous. This study examines how this resource-rich region has been able to integrate into the world economy and the role played by the region’s landlocked situation, as 90 percent of world trade is conducted by sea transport.

Numerous ideas were introduced for the development of the economy and the transport infrastructure of the region. Most of these ideas came from external actors, mainly the major world powers, like the European Union, the United States, Russia and China. All of these concepts promised ambitious infrastructure developments for the region, but very little was achieved.

The Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC), established in 1997 within the framework of the Asian Development Bank, recently created a platform for intraregional cooperation. This type of cooperation is new in the region and promises to link the transport developments of those countries. It focuses on the needs of the countries of Central Asia and not on the geo-strategies of the major powers. The aim is to promote developments with the greatest impact on regional trade development. However, CAREC has not yet been able to achieve truly significant changes. One of the most important achievements, however, is that since 2010 a wide range of data on transport costs, transport times, speed, quality of services and also corruption has been available. The data suggest that soft enablers play a more important role in crossborder transport in Central Asia than physical transport infrastructure.

Recent political developments in the region – namely the political and economic opening of Uzbekistan, population growth, China’s growing interest in the region as a market and investment target – mean that the development of the transport infrastructure can facilitate the growth of the region and further integration into the world economy. But without acceleration, Central Asia will not be able to realise its potential and will face slower growth in the future. The shrinking foreign trade in recent years already suggests that faster change is needed.