Discussion Papers 1999. No. 28.
Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past, Present and Future
CENTRE FOR REGIONAL STUDIES
OF HUNGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
DISCUSSION PAPERS
No. 28
Climate History of Hungary
Since 16th Century: Past,
Present and Future
by
Lajos RACZ
Series editor
Zoltan GAL
Pecs
1999
Discussion Papers 1999. No. 28.
Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past, Present and Future
Publishing of this paper is supported by the
Research Fund of the Centre for Regional Studies, Hungary
Translated by
Rita Konta
Translation revised by
Neil MacAskill
Figures
Katalin Molnarne Kasza
Technical editor
Mihaly Fodor
Tiberias BT
ISSN 0238-2008
© 1999 by Centre for Regional Studies of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Typeset by Centre for Regional Studies of HAS
Printed in Hungary by Siimegi Nyomdaipari, Kereskedelmi es Szolgaltato Ltd., Pecs
Discussion Papers 1999. No. 28.
Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past, Present and Future
CONTENTS
Foreword
5
Acknowledgements
6
1.
Territorial Variations of the Hungarian State since 1000 AD
7
2.
Sources for Hungarian Climate History Research
12
2.1.
Documentary Sources of Rethly's Source Book
14
2.1.1. Chronicles, Annals
15
2.1.2. Records of Public Administration
17
2.1.3. Private Estate Records
18
2.1.4. Personal Papers
18
2.1.5. Early Journalism
20
2.1.6. Early Instrument Based Records
20
2.1.7. Meteorological Instrument Records
21
2.2.
Method of Analyzing the Source Documents
22
3.
Climate Characteristics of the Carpathian Basin
25
3.1.
Temperature Conditions of Hungary
25
3.2.
Precipitation in Hungary
27
4.
Climate Variations by Month in Hungary during the Little Ice Age
29
and Recent Global Warming
4.1.
January
29
4.1.1. January Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
29
4.1.2. January Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
33
4.1.3. January Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
34
4.2.
February
36
4.2.1. February Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
36
4.2.2. February Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
40
4.2.3. February Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
41
4.3.
March
43
4.3.1. March Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
43
4.3.2. March Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
46
4.3.3. March Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
47
4.4.
April
49
4.4.1. April Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
49
4.4.2. April Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
52
4.4.3. April Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
53
4.5.
May
55
4.5.1. May Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
55
4.5.2. May Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
58
4.5.3. May Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
60
4.6.
June
62
4.6.1. June Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
62
Discussion Papers 1999. No. 28.
Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past, Present and Future
4.6.2. June Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
64
4.6.3. June Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
66
4.7.
July
68
4.7.1. July Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
68
4.7.2. July Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
71
4.7.3. July Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
73
4.8.
August
75
4.8.1. August Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
75
4.8.2. August Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
78
4.8.3. August Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
80
4.9.
September
82
4.9.1. September Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
82
4.9.2. September Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
84
4.9.3. September Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
86
4.10.
October
88
4.10.1. October Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
88
4.10.2. October Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
90
4.10.3. October Climate Change Characteristics over the Centuries
92
4.11.
November
94
4.11.1. November Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
94
4.11.2. November Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
96
4.11.3. November Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
97
4.12.
December
99
4.12.1. December Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
99
4.12.2. December Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
102
4.12.3. December Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
103
5.
Seasonal Climate Trends of the Decades and Centuries
105
5.1.
Winter
105
5.2.
Spring
109
5.3.
Summer
112
5.4.
Autumn
115
6.
Half-Yearly and Yearly Climate Change Trends
118
6.1.
Winter Half-Year
118
6.2.
Summer Half-Year
122
6.3.
Yearly Temperature and Precipitation Time Series
125
7.
Climate Change Characteristics in Hungary during the Little
128
Ice Age and the Recent Warming
7.1.
Correlation Study of the Climate History and Meteorological
128
Monthly Time Series
7.2.
Hungarian Features of the Climate Changes
132
References
134
Appendix
142
Discussion Papers 1999. No. 28.
Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past, Present and Future
In memory of Antal Rethly
FOREWORD
The history of this booklet begins as far back as March 1985 when, as a second-year
university student of both geography and history, I was trying to find a topic for my
research work that was related to both sciences. My university professors, Lciszlo
Makra and Gyorgy Peczely introduced me to the reference work of Antal Rethly. During
my university studies Gcibor Mezosi acted ,as my tutor, while the first studies I made
were commented on by Vera Zimcinyi, Agnes R. Vcirkonyi, Scindor Gyimesi, Lciszlo
Katus, Lciszlo Kordos, Jcinos Mika and Jcinos Justycik. In 1990 I was fortunate enough to
make contact with the prominent actor and coordinator of European climate history
research, Professor Christian Pfister, who played a very dominant role in my profession-
al career. At Prof. Pfister's invitation I worked at the Department of Regional and
Environmental History of the University of Bern in the 1990's. During my studies in
Bern Christian Pfister and Hannes Schule introduced me to the method of using docu-
mentary sources, while the availability of adequate software and hardware resources
further supported me in my ongoing research work. In addition to the climate history
work completed in Bern, I enjoyed the benefit of considerable assistance in my
research from historians such as Bernard Lepetit and Jean-Yves Grenier of `Ecole des
Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales' in Paris. The final impetus to produce this booklet
was provided by the Hungarian Scholarship Committee ensuring a two-month scholar-
ship in the Czech Republic at the end of 1998. The manuscript of this edition was pre-
pared at the Geographic Institute of the Masaryk University in Brno with the
assistance of Professor Rudolf Brcizdil and Petr Dobrovolny.
Brno, 12 December 1998
Lajos Racz
5
Discussion Papers 1999. No. 28.
Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past, Present and Future
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The study was realized with the financial support of the OTKA Foundation
(F 20829, F 22261 and T 29183), the OKTK Foundation (1089/III.b. and 1502/III.b.)
and Eotvos Fellowship Foundation. This paper contains the results of Alfold-2
Research Program' of Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
6
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
1. TERRITORIAL VARIATIONS OF THE HUNGARIAN
STATE SINCE 1000 AD
The Hungarian tribes reached their final homeland, the Carpathian Basin during
one of the last migrational waves at the end of the 9' century. The 300,000 square kilo-
meter area of the Carpathian Basin became the geographical site of the Hungarian
State for centuries.
Figure 1
Central Europe in the 11th century
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(St.) Stephen I (Istvcin) (997-1038) officially adopted Christianity in 1000 AD and
founded the Hungarian Kingdom. In the Middle Ages the area of the country gradual-
ly expanded following several conquests and inheritances. In the 12' century the
Croatian crown went to the Hungarian king as the Croatian royal family died out. The
Croatian-Hungarian personal union endured until the beginning of the 20" century.
The Hungarian State occupied the largest amount of territory in the Middle Ages
when, in the 14' century, the Hungarian King Lajos I the Great took the title of King of
Poland.
7
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 2
Borders of the Hungarian Kingdom in the 14th century
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In the 15th century the Turks appeared at the southern border of Hungary and con-
quered the southern and central territory of the country after a struggle of one and a
half centuries, while the eastern territory, Transylvania, became a Turkish satellite-
principality. The Hungarian Kingdom was then limited to the northern and northwest-
ern regions of the Carpathian Basin and became part of the Central European
Habsburg Monarchy together with Croatia.
8
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 3
Changes in the territory of the Hungarian Kingdom in the age
of the Turkish wars (1541-1686)
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The territories occupied by the Turks were finally liberated at the end of the 17"
century. By this time the Hungarian Kingdom had lost its independence, but retained a
special status within the Central European Habsburg Empire. Following several politi-
cal disagreements, uprisings and revolutions the Habsburg Empire in the Compromise
of 1867, which created the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy, finally officially acknowl-
edged this special legal status.
9
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 4
The territory of the Hungarian Kingdom during the
Austro-Hungarian Monarchy
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The Austro-Hungarian Monarchy ceased to exist as a state as decided in the peace
agreements ending the First World War when a division into the quasi-national states
of Austria, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Hungary and Romania replaced the empire.
Following the decisions of the peace agreement, Hungary became an independent
state while losing two thirds of its former territory, and the map of Hungary has not
significantly changed since that time.
10
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 5 Central Europe in the 1990s years
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When analyzing the climate history prior to the end of the First World War the terri-
tory within the Carpathian Basin was studied, while in the later decades of the 20'h cen-
tury the area under study relates to the present day territory of Hungary.
11
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
2. SOURCES FOR HUNGARIAN CLIMATE HISTORY
RESEARCH
In our country Budapest has the longest running records of meteorological instru-
mental observation with temperature records dating back to 1780 but these records do
not contain associated adequate precipitation data prior to 1841. The second longest
running records dates back to 1853 and is from Debrecen, despite the fact that the net-
work of meteorological stations in most places in Hungary was not created until the
last third of the 19th century.
The determination of meteorological conditions for time periods which pre-date
recording of instrument based observations belongs to the sciences of climate and
environmental research, while its sources are generally characterized as proxy data in
the specialized literature. These sources can be quite varied. The first major group
covers sources based on physics, chemistry and biology, and the first national climate
reconstruction based on a database of this type was the `vole-thermometer' by Laszlo
Kordos (1977) which makes it possible to follow the climatic changes in Hungary dur-
ing the 12000-year Holocene geological age.
The second major proxy source-group includes the archeological sources, and in this
respect the dendrological studies by Andrcis Grynaeus (1997) deserve special attention,
however the combination of the dendrochronological 'floating' time series and their
climate related interpretation has yet to be completed.
Figure 6
Sources of information for the reconstruction of past climates.
The separate categories often overlap, and some of the more important
interactions are shown. (Based on Ingram, M.J. (1981) et al.)
Evidence of Past Climates
Field Evidence
Documentary Evidence
Physical-Chemical-
Written and
Archeological
Biological
Iconographic
Evidence
Evidence
Evidence
The third major source-group includes archives, irrespective of their being written,
photographic or cartographic in nature. With regard to climate related historical
sources we enjoy especially favourable conditions in the Central-European region,
thanks primarily to the research activities coordinated and directed by the former
12
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
manager of the National Meteorological Service, Antal Rethly. Rethly and his col-
leagues collected information from available sources concerning climate historical
descriptions and indications in Latin, German, Turkish and Hungarian. The resulting
works were published later in three volumes by the research manager, out of which the
Akademia Publishing House edited the first two in 1962 and 1970. Approximately half
of the third volume was edited by Antal Simon and was issued as a publication of the
National Meteorological Service in 1998.
The prototypes for Rethly's climate history sources admittedly originated with the
German climate historical school. Rethly even used Hennig's (1904) and Weikinn's
(1958) Hungarian related source work. The question must be raised as to what extent
the doubts, formulated by Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie (1967), Pierre Alexandre (1987),
Christian Pfister (1984) and other researchers of philologian education towards ele-
ments of the German school, are relevant in relation to Rethly's sources. Researchers
specializing in History have been critical of the work of researchers having an educa-
tion based in meteorology and geography pointing to alleged mistakes in chronology
and sources from a historical point of view. In the case of Rethly's collection we can be
assured of chronological accuracy as Rethly was well aware of the dating system com-
monly used in the Middle Ages which disappeared from use during the centuries of
Modern Times. The calendar reform by Pope Gregory XIII in 1582 took effect in the
territory of the Hungarian Kingdom in 1588, yet it became generally accepted only
around 1625, while the old calendar remained in use in the territory under Turkish
occupation until the latter third of the 17' century. Rethly (1962) dealt with the prob-
lems arising from the mixed use of the different calendars and with the application of
recalculation methods in the first volume of his work. The integrity of Antal Rethly's
scientific interpretation of sources is further assured by his extensive experience, hav-
ing been engaged in archive research since the early 1900s, publishing his first study on
climate history in 1914 in the Hungarian meteorological paper `Idojards' (Weather).
Rethly also consulted with outstanding historians in relation to his work. For example
in interpreting Turkish sources he consulted with the professor of Oriental Studies,
Gyula Germanus, who was the first Hungarian to complete the pilgrimage to Mecca,
and when working with Hungarian sources related to the problematic Modern Times,
he consulted with Floricin Holovics, Chief Archivist. In his references Rethly classified
the different sources as to their reliability, with sources of a lower level of reliability
printed in smaller fonts along with appropriate comments. Similarly, conflicting
sources were also pointed out. Antal Rethly's excellent education in meteorology com-
bined with his extensive practical experiences was quite beneficial to his work with the
various reference literatures. Rethly's comments on climatology were most useful when
interpreting the phenomena of nature described in the documentary sources.
13
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
2.1. Documentary Sources of Rethly's Source Book
In the first volume of Antal Rethly's source book the earliest reference to a weather
report for the Carpathian Basin states that the Danube was covered with ice in 173
AD, but for purposes of a thorough historical reconstruction of climate, adequate
sources are only available beginning with the latter half of the 16'" century. The most
reliable reference sources for historical climate information varied during different
periods of modern times, and Christian Pfister's form and content standardization
methods were used in reviewing the various sources.
Table 1
Types of climate history sources and information
(Based on Pfister, Christian (1984): Klimageschichte der Schweiz, Bern)
type of
type of
documentary sources
information
chronicles,
evidence
of evidence
of Personal
Early
Early
instrumen-
annals
public
private
notes
journalism
instrumen-
tal records
administra-
estate
tal records
tion
description
weather
damages
weather
weather
weather
systematic
systematic
of weather
anomalies
anomalies,
anomalies,
anomalies,
description
description
damagies
trends,
trends,
of weather
of atmos-
damages
damages
pheric
events
instrumental
temperature, temperature,
obSer-
precipita-
precipita-
vation
tion,
tion,
atmospheric
atmospheric
pressure
pressure
phenological cereals,
cereals,
cereals,
cereals,
cereals,
grapevine
grapevine
grapevine,
grapevine,
grapevine,
hay
hay
hay
Biological
date of wheat date of
-
pars-
date of
tithe records, date of wheat date of wheat
information ,... phenological vintage
date of wheat harvest and
harvest and
harvest and
vintage
g
harvest and
vintage
vintage
vintage
vintage
wine-
quantity and quantity and quantity and quantity and quantity and quantity and
growing
quality of
quantity of quantity of
quantity of
quantity of
quantity of
evidence
wine
wine
wine
wine
wine
wine
14
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 7 Venues of historical climate observations in Hungary
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2.1.1. Chronicles, Annals
Chronicles
The chronicle-sources in Hungary can be divided into three categories: national
chronicles, regional chronicles and town chronicles. The division is mainly based on the
extent of the geographical area described, however the various types of chronicle com-
municate very different information in content as it relates to the analysis of climate
history. Environmental and climate related observations are hardly mentioned in the
text of the national chronicles, and only then as external factors which tended to facili-
tate or impede war-related events. The regional chronicles, however, do go into some
detail regarding climate, relating important details and events such as extreme weather
conditions and disasters, as well as relating prevailing weather conditions to perennial
agricultural success or failure. With regard to climate history the best sources are the
town chronicles as people in the cities were at the mercy of the outside world on a daily
basis, living in a special symbiosis with their agricultural environment. It is therefore
no surprise that the individuals responsible for writing the town chronicles, who in
many cases were also high-ranking officials in their towns, dealt with agriculture and
weather at length in their writings.
15
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
The chronicles represent the only sources for reconstructing climate history in the
16' century, but their informative character gradually lost importance in later cen-
turies as a result of the expansion of the written form.
National Chronicles
Miklos Istvanfi (1535-1615) was the only chronicler to view events from a national
point of view. Istvanfi, statesman and historian, wrote the chronicle Tannonii histori-
arum de rebus ungaricis...' in Latin dealing with the history of Hungary between 1490
and 1606.
Regional Chronicles
As a chronicle of regional character of the war-related events of the 16' century, the
diary of Suleyman, the Magnificent (Ottoman Sultan: 1520-1566), despite the mislead-
ing title, is a work of historical significance and quite useful.
Mate Sepsi Laczko (-1624), theologian and historian of Transylvania, authored a his-
tory of Transylvania for the period from 1520 through 1624. Lestcir Gyulafy (1157-1605)
also deg It with the history of Transylvania, but his chronicles in Latin (Ephemerides)
were lost and only the records used in the preparation of the chronicle remained.
Istvan Szamoskozi
(-1612) was the most outstanding humanist historian of
Transylvania, who served first as archivist in Gyulafehervar, later as court-historian of
Prince Bocskai, and his life's work was to wrote a history of Transylvania, which unfor-
tunately remained unfinished.
Albert Bielz's (1817-1898) chronicles from South Transylvania is also regarded as a
regional source but it contains both the regional and town chronicles in German of the
Saxon towns (the most important were: R-Bra§ov, G-Kronstadt, H-Brasso; R-Sibiu, G-
Hermannstadt, H-Nagyszeben) in Transylvania and thus is somewhat of a blend of
regional and town chronicles.
Town Chronicles
During the Turkish era Sopron was the only town in Western Hungary that did not
fall under Turkish occupation. This was a result of its strategic military location,
Sopron has the richest source of climate history of all Hungarian towns. The Bruckner
chronicle is in fact a collection of the German chronicles of Sopron edited by Gottlieb
Bruckner in the first half of the 19" century, listing the events of the town from the 15"
century until his own era. Another series of chronicles from Sopron were the chroni-
cles by GyOrgy Payr and Mihcily Payr, also in German, these authors wrote the history of
the town from 1586 until the end of the 17" century. The chronicle by Mark Fauth,
Councilor of Sopron deals with a shorter period, but it is a very detailed chronicle of
the period from 1579 until his death in 1616. Fauth's chronicle was subsequently com-
pleted with events from later centuries.
My most significant source in reconstructing the climate history of the Highlands is
Gaspar HaM's chronicle from Levoaa (H-Locse). Hain (1632-1687) was the chief con-
stable of this town who collected the earlier Saxon chronicles and continued them until
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his death. His life's work was published in German under the title Zipserische oder
Leutschauerische Chronica'.
Sebestyen Borsos (1520-1584) was the chief constable of Tirgu Mure§ (H-
Marosvasarhely) from 1565 through 1582 and using the town chronicles that had been
written earlier, he edited the history of Tirgu Mure§ (H-Marosvasarhely) from 1490
through 1583.
Yearbooks
Within the category of yearbooks the most useful sources for climate history infor-
mation from the early Modern Times were diaries from the monasteries of the Order
of Jesuits and the `historia domus' from the Franciscan monasteries. Depending on
their interests, the monks writing the books dealt with weather conditions to differing
extents, but generally speaking, thanks to these sources there are already periods in the
last third of the 17'h century for which a precise climate history can be reconstructed.
In the first volume of his collection Nthly published the records of the Latin diary
from the Monastery of the Order of Jesuits in Levoda (H-Locse) for the periods 1673-
1679 and 1686-1706. Also the first volume of Rethly's collection contains the records of
the Latin diary from the Monastery of the Order of Jesuits in Kosice (H-Kassa) con-
cerning the period 1677-1681. Further volumes of the diaries from the monasteries of
the Order of Jesuits have to this day remained unavailable.
In addition to the works compiled by the Order of Jesuits, the Franciscan Order
established and maintained a countrywide network in Hungary during the early
Modern Times. The `Historia Domus' of the Franciscan Order in Gyongyos has daily
weather records starting from 1706 through the end of the 18'h century. The Historia
Domus from the Franciscan Order in Eger dealing with the period 1765-1800 is includ-
ed in the second volume of Rethly's collection. Complementing the historia domus
from the monasteries in Gyongyos and Eger, Rethly also used records for the 18'h and
19'h century from the historia domus of the monasteries in Mernye, Kecskemet and
Jaszberdny.
2.1.2. Records of Public Administration
The public administration archives have not yet been studied from the point of view
of climate history, and Rethly's collection includes only some of the ordinances issued
by the Imperial Council. Further research in this area would be very useful.
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2.1.3. Private Estate Records
The source-group of private estate records includes manorial records by their eco-
nomic officials. In these records the writers concentrate mainly on the results of agri-
cultural production acknowledging the general opinion that 'weather is the real boss
everywhere'.
Rethly's collection contains only a few private estate records, one of the exceptions
being the records from the manor of Prince Trautsohn in Regec which were used by
Istvan Bakacs (1930).
2.1.4. Personal Papers
Thanks to the expansion of written literature the most important source group in
my climate history research includes personal papers beginning in the second half of
the 17th century. This source group can be basically divided into two types: private let-
ters and personal diaries. The letters and extracts of letters included in Rethly's collec-
tion are mainly from the correspondence between the aristocrats of Transylvania and
Hungary containing mainly private and sometimes political and military information
with some reference to weather and climate data. The diaries were written by towns-
people, priests/clergymen of congregations and noblemen with farms who paid signifi-
cant attention to the weather. Besides giving detailed accounts of the weather,
agricultural production facts and figures were also recorded together with prevailing
market prices.
Typical examples of this type of correspondence from the early Modern Times were
the letters from Count Miluily Teleki (1905-26), Prince Miklos Eszterhazy (1909), Prince
Gabor Bethlen (1886) and Prince Gyorgy Rakoczi II (1877).
Our first diarist was Zsigmond Torda, an officer of the Hungarian Treasury who fin-
ished his medical studies at the University of Padova. He kept a diary in Latin in which
records for the period from 1558-1568 are available. Torda worked at two seats of the
Royal Chamber, in Bratislava (G-Pressburg, H-Pozsony) and Pregov (H-Eperjes), and
he recorded his observations while in these towns and while traveling between them.
GyOrgy Dobronoki (1588-1649) was the first Rector of the University in Trnava (H-
Nagyszombat), studied in Graz, and later joined the Order of Jesuits. As Viceroy of
the order he worked in Zagreb, Trnava (H-Nagyszombat) and Humenne (H-
Homonna). Dobronoki wrote his diary in Latin on a daily basis and his records for the
period 1636-1638 are available to us.
Ambrus Keczer (1620-1671) was in Istvan Thokoly's confidence, the father of Prince
Imre ThokOly. In his diary he wrote about the fortresses and towns of the Highlands
including Podzamok (H-Arvavara), Keimarok (H-Kesmark), Pregov (H-Eperjes) and
Huszt. The volume of Keczer's diary covering the period 1663-1669 was preserved.
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Of particular value to researchers of Hungarian climate history are the war records
of Prince Imre Thokoly (1657-1705). The prince experienced many adventures and
maintained a diary from the age of 19, in which he described the weather in detail
every day. It is quite unfortunate that only parts of his diary remain available to us
today, mainly for the years 1676-1678, 1685-1686, and 1689-1694.
Another valuable resource document for climate history information is the diary of
Gyorgy Czegei Vass (1644-1705), a Transylvanian politician and landowner from Cege.
Gyorgy Czegei Vass started writing a diary in 1680 and continued doing so until his
dead' in 1705. Six years later, in 1712 his son, Laszlo Czegei Vass resumed his father's
tradition writing a diary for the next 26 years, until 1738.
The diary of Zsigmond Szaniszlo, town clerk of Torda, includes daily weather reports
as well as a monthly and seasonal analysis of general weather conditions. Records from
Szaniszlo's diary have been preserved only for the period 1682-1711.
An important source of climate history in the Highlands from the middle third of
the 18' century is the diary of the Kortvelyesi Pap Family. Istvan Kortvelyesi Pap (-
1757), judge of the town of Szikszo initially began writing this diary, which was contin-
ued after his death by his son, Istvcin Kortvelyesi Pap Junior, a Calvinist pastor. From
this family diary we have the volumes from the period 1745 through 1779 which con-
tain general annual evaluations in the records up until 1757, but subsequent to that
date, when Istvan KOrtvelyesi Pap Junior took over the writing, daily observations of
weather conditions are recorded as well.
The diary by Istvcin Debretzeni Pap (-1841), a Calvinist pastor also contains refer-
ences to weather in varying detail, however it mainly contains general annual evalua-
tions and daily observations are only infrequently included. Istvan Debretzeni Pap
started writing his diary in 1807 as a pastor in Tiszaug and in 1815 he became the head
of the congregation in Kenderes, working there and continuing to write his diary until
he died in 1841.
Lciszlo Zlinszky (1801-1862), the Chief Engineer and Chief Director of Road Affairs
in Pest County, started writing a diary rich in weather observations in 1821, and contin-
ued his recording until his death in 1862. The diary contains mainly general monthly
and seasonal evaluations, while the daily records refer exclusively to unusual weather
events.
The diary of Mihaly Kircily, Calvinist pastor of Egerbegy in Torda County, written
between 1823 and 1848 now represents an important source for Transylvanian climate
history research. In the diary he recorded daily reports as well as a monthly weather
summary.
Like his fellow-pastors from Kenderes and Egerbegy, Gabor Ecsedy, the Calvinist
pastor of Gyula also wrote daily diary recording detailed weather conditions for the
period. 1834-1852 and this diary, having been preserved in it's entirety is available for
reference purposes.
Ferenc Vali, Director of the Calvinist College in Komarom, also recorded detailed
daily weather observations in his diary for the period from 1841 through 1846 and
these records remain available to this day.
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2.1.5. Early Journalism
The newspapers starting to appear towards the end of the 18'h century became more
and more important with regard to reconstructing climatic history. It started with the
German paper Tressburger Zeitung' published in Bratislava (G-Pressburg, H-
Pozsony) first in 1764 and continuing for the longest time in the history of the
Hungarian press was published through 1929. The first paper in Hungarian was the
`Magyar Hirmondo' (Hungarian Messenger) which appeared between 1780 and 1788.
Another Hungarian newspaper with the same title was published in Vienna between
1792 and 1803. The most important one published in Hungarian in Vienna was the
`Magyar Kurir' (Hungarian Courier) between 1788 and 1834.
In addition to Bratislava (G-Pressburg, H-Pozsony) and Vienna the first newspapers
in Pest-Buda came out at the turn of the century. The German language paper
'Vereinigte Ofner and Pester Zeitung' made it's debut in 1798 and was published until
1845. An interesting chapter in the publishing history of Hungary was written in the
period between 1790 and 1793 when the Latin language newspaper 'Ephemerides
Budenses' was published. The most important paper published in Hungarian in Pest-
Buda was titled `Hazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) published
first in 1806, and continued after 1840 under the title `Nemzeti I:Jjsag' (National Paper)
after 1840 before ceasing to exist in 1848.
These early newspapers obtained the news partly through the correspondents' net-
work, and partly through subscriptions to European papers. The major benefit to my
research provided by a review of these twice-weekly newspapers was the excellent
overview of the weather conditions throughout the country during the relevant period.
2.1.6. Early Instrument Based Records
At the turn of the 18' century lecturers and doctors educated in natural sciences
paid more attention to regular weather observation. The first doctor in Hungary to
make regular weather observations was Andreas Loew (1666-1710), Chief Scientist of
Sopron. Loew made his notes in Latin and his observations were included in the col-
lected works of the English doctor, Sydenham, published in Geneva in 1769.
Sydenham's volumes also included the weather observations of the medical Doctor
Raygeri who worked in Sopron and Bratislava (G-Pressburg, H-Pozsony) and was
therefore most certainly a colleague of Loew's for some time. After Loew's death,
Janos Adam Gensel (1677-1720) continued the Sopron observations, and was elected
Vice-Chairman to the German 'Academia Naturae Curiosorum' in 1719. Gensel was
the first Hungarian observer to measure the temperature and air pressure several
times a day in the early 18' century, and his records were also included in Sydenham's
collected works.
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Nearly all of the meteorological authors of Hungary in the first half of the 18'h cen-
tury had their reports published in the German periodicals of natural science of that
age. The first Middle-European scientific paper for the 'meteorologists' of Hungary
was the `Sammlung von Natur und Medizin...' published in Wroclaw (G-Bresslau),
which later was taken over by the publication Nachrichten — Miscellanea Physico-
Medico-Mathematica, oder angenehme, curieuse und nirtzliche..! published in Erfurt.
These papers printed observations by Istvan Pal Bcicsmegyei, a doctor from Banska
Bystrica (H-Besztercebanya), Gyorgy Buchholtz, a polyhistorian from Keimarok (H-
Kesmark), and Jcinos Adam Reimann, 'Senior Physicist' of Saros County and Pregov
(H-Eperjes).
Samuel Benito. (1743-), 'Senior Physicist' of the Town of Miskolc and Borsod
County, who studied at the university of Trnava (H-Nagyszombat) and Leiden, com-
menced detailed meteorological observations in 1780 reading the thermometer and
barometer several times a day between 1780 and 1802. In Timisoara (H-Temesvar), the
pharmacist Jozsef Karoly Klapka (-1817), started his meteorological observations also
in 1780 and continued reading the temperature and air pressure three times a day for
24 years. Janos Genersich (1761-) who completed his university studies in Jena com-
menced meteorological observations in 1789 as a teacher of the Lutheran lyceum in
Keimarok (H-Kesmark). While he left this job in 1800 for unknown reasons the
records of the University of Vienna show that Professor Genersich was invited as a lec-
turer in 1821.
Detailed records of temperature and air pressure readings for Buda are available
for the years 1811 and 1812. Little is known about the person who made these record-
ings, other than the fact that he was a citizen of Buda with a legal education.
The men of the Patkovich Family in Pecs made meteorological observations for
more than 70 years. Boldizsar Patkovich, who graduated as a doctor from the
University of Vienna and shortly afterwards was appointed the health officer of
Baranya County, started recording his observations in 1781. His eldest son Jozsef also
studied at the medical faculty of the University in Vienna graduating in 1809 and, in
1831, he was also appointed the health officer of Baranya County. After his father's
death, Jozsef Patkovich continued keeping the weather records through 1853.
Antal 116closi Karticsony, a landowner and amateur natural scientist performed
meteorological observations in Mezokomarom from 1835-37 and in Szokesfehervar
from 1837-1847. Karticsony recorded the temperature and air pressure several times
each day and wrote short comments on changes in the weather in his meteorological
diary.
2.1.7. Meteorological Instrument Records
Systematic meteorological observation in Hungary commenced in 1755 at the
University of Trnava (H—Nagyszombat) under the direction of Ferenc Weisz, Professor
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of Mathematics. Queen Maria Teresia (1740-1780) had the university relocated in 1777
to the royal castle of Buda. It was at this time that the astronomical tower was built in
the castle to serve as an astronomical and meteorological observatory. As of New
Year's Day in 1780 meteorological readings were taken here, at first with instruments
brought from Trnava (H-Nagyszombat), and then from 1781 onwards with instruments
provided by the `Societas Meteorologica Palatinae' in Mannheim. The university was
once again relocated from Buda to Pest, but the meteorological observatory remained
in the Castle of Buda. The temperature, precipitation and air pressure were recorded
in Buda from 1780 onwards, and notes on cloud-cover were also included in the
records. Uninterrupted time series are available only for temperature from the very
beginning, but as of 1841 the records included precipitation time series as well.
When using the time series from Budapest, I had to take into account the conse-
quences of the observatory relocation and as well as the effect on meteorological
observations of Budapest becoming a metropolis. In order to compensate for these dis-
torting effects, I used the time series homogenized by Tamcis Szentimrey (1944) in my
analysis.
2.2. Method of Analyzing the Source Documents
In order to combine the historical climate information from the various documen-
tary sources with that in my routine climate analysis, the sources had to be rearranged
according to theme, geographical location, and dates. To facilitate this procedure I
used the program of the Clim-Hist computer climate history databank developed by
Christian Pfister and Hannes Schale at the Historical Institute of Bern University. The
first step in the procedure was to classify that information which related directly to the
weather according to themes, following the coding principles of the Clim-Hist system.
The second of the three main groups of information which had to be sorted was indi-
rect weather data such as the freezing or rise of the river, while the third major infor-
mation group consisted of phenological data related to the natural environment and
agricultural society. When grouping the sources according to time, five time scales
were used as follows: single day, unit of ten days, month, season and a whole year. The
four geographical categories used for arranging the data were as follows: settlement,
county, the four macro-regions (Transdanubia, Highlands, Transylvania, and Great
Plain) and the country as a whole.
After arranging the documentary sources I excluded those sources that provided
information judged to be too general in nature. I only used those sources where the
writers clearly described the weather, ecological, or phenological events, and where
their time frames were determined with at least monthly accuracy. This way I excluded
those sources providing general statements on the season and weather such as 'winter
is very cold, summer is very hot'. It is quite evident that by employing this method I
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also excluded some authentic documentary sources from the analysis, but I believe the
resulting database is more reliable as a result.
Figure 8
Spatial and temporal structure of climate history reconstruction
in the Carpathian Basin
day
settlement
decade
county
month
macro-region
season
Hungary
year
After having grouped the reference data on climate history information, this data
was expressed numerically. In this phase of the analysis I followed the methodology of
Christian Pfister: more specifically, each weather incident from the data base was
marked on a scale +/-3, whereby +3 means extraordinary warm and rainy, while -3
indicates extraordinarily cold and dry weather. In the course of my research I created
temperature and precipitation time series for days, units of ten days, months, seasons
and for the whole year for each of the settlements, the counties, the four macro-
regions of the Carpathian Basin and for the country as a whole.
I would be remiss were I not to address the following question here: to what extent
are the climate history time series reliable in reality? To what extent does the double
subjective 'filter' of the brain of the recording person and the brain of the researcher
alter the original event? At this present stage I think three answers can be given to
address this area of concern. First of all, we have to remain aware of the validity of this
concern. Out of necessity, I often had to rely on very 'special' weather reports, and
there are certainly far more sources of climate history in the archives than have been
located so far. Subsequent inclusion of this additional data may have an altering effect
on the conclusions related to climatic changes drawn from the present database. The
second relevant fact is that the scale used for transforming the data into numbers is a
deliberately limited one, thus minimizing the probability of this being a source of
errors. And finally it is my opinion that the most important test of the time series in
this study can be a comparison with a climate history time series created using other
methods. Such a climate history reference could be the dendrological time series of
Andras Gryneaus once it is complete, however at the present stage our climate history
time series can only be compared to the instrument based time series from Budapest.
The overlapping period between the temperature time series is of adequate length,
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from 1780 through 1850. I compared the macro-regional time series to the Buda time
series based on a correlation calculation, and the relation appeared strong in the case
of every month. While the above indicates that the temperature time series is reason-
ably reliable, there is unfortunately no similar basis for a control comparison of the
precipitation time series.
Table 2
Correlation between the temperature time series based
on instrument observations in Budapest and the temperature time
series based on climate history for the country as a whole,
between 1780 and 1850
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3. CLIMATE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
CARPATHIAN BASIN
In my climate history analysis I use the temperature and precipitation time series of
months, seasons, and of the whole year from the four macro-regions (Transdanubia,
Highlands, Transylvania, Hungarian Plain) and the whole of the Carpathian Basin
combining with the temperature and precipitation time series of Budapest. For pur-
poses of analysis of the changes in climate, the category of standards has to be deter-
mined. Following the consensus of meteorologists I accepted the average of the period
1901-1960 as 'average', and my time series are compared to this value. To present the
temperature and precipitation conditions of Hungary, I used the climate analysis of my
former professor, Gyorgy Peczely (1981).
Figure 9
Macro-Regions of the Carpathian Basin:
Transdanubia, Highlands, Transylvania and the Hungarian Plain
3.1. Temperature Conditions of Hungary
January is our coldest month, with the average temperature for the month falling as
location moves from South to North and from West to East. The mildest region with
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an average temperature over -1 °C is the Southwest, while the coldest region with an
average temperature between —3 and -4 °C is the Northeast. This temperature distribu-
tion coincides well with the general isotherm system for January, and reflects the
effects of the warm air masses from West-Southwest, and the cold ones from the
Northeast. January and the winter temperatures in general show significant yearly dif-
ferences. For example average temperatures in January have already been recorded in
the —9 to -11 °C range, and also in the + 5-6 °C. The former corresponds to the expect-
ed average January temperature in Finland, while the latter resembles the mid-Winter
temperature of the French and Italian Riviera.
The warmest month of the year is July, when the temperature falls as one moves
from South to North, but goes up from West to East. So the coolest areas in the middle
of summer are the northwestern and northern areas of the country, with an average
temperature of 19 °C, while the hottest area is in the SouthEast with an average over
22 °C. This typical summer weather reflects the effects of the cool ocean air masses
arriving from the Northwest and the warm continental ones from the Southeast.
Temperatures recorded in July and the summer months in general do not reveal varia-
tions as significant as those of the winter months. The average temperature of our
coolest July was between 17-18,5 °C, while those of the hottest July vary between 24-26
°C, reflecting a greater level of stability in summer weather patterns.
The course of temperature change in our country shows great stability with the
monthly averages gradually increasing from January until July, and gradually decreas-
ing from July until January.
Figure 10 Monthly Average Temperatures in Budapest for the period
1901-1960
15
s 1901-60
0
EEO
January February March
April
May
Jun,
July
Augu
Scruembcr Octob
November December
months
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The average annual temperature is highest in the Southern-South-Eastern parts of
the country, around 11-11,5 °C, while the average in the North reaches only 8-9 °C, and
in the higher mountains only 6-7 °C. In national terms, the average of about 10 °C
seems to be adequate.
In order to interpret the sources used in tracing climate history, it is important to
take into account the range of absolute maximum and minimum temperatures. The
average of the greatest annual rise in temperature in Hungarian territory less than 200
m above sea level is 33-36 °C, while the average of the greatest decrease is 16-19 °C. In
flat areas maximum temperatures exceeding 30 °C can be expected even in the coolest
of summers and the absolute record high temperature in this region varies from 38-41
°C. During extreme summer heat the average temperature even at 1000 m above sea
level can reach 30-31 °C. The most extreme cold expected in most parts of the country
ranges from —25 to -30 °C, but in lower lying areas of the Plain and in mountain valleys
the accumulation of cold air can lead to lows of -30 to -35 °C.
3.2. Precipitation in Hungary
The territorial distribution of precipitation in Hungary shows significant differences,
exceeding 900 mm in the Southwestern areas with the most rain, while the annual pre-
cipitation value in the middle area of the Plain is only 480-500 mm.
The country experiences the highest levels of precipitation in the May-July period,
with the Western border-areas experiencing their highest rainfalls in July, while
Transdanubia's highest rainfall occurs in May and the Plain experiences highest rain-
falls in June. There is also an autumn (October-November), secondary period of high
precipitation in the southern part of the country, which is the result of the
Mediterranean climate. Lowest precipitation levels are experienced in the January-
February period.
Yearly averages of precipitation vary a great deal. In the driest years precipitation
on the Plain was limited to about 290-320 mm, while the averages in the rainiest
Transdanubian areas reach as much as 1100-1400 mm. The distribution of precipita-
tion varies significantly as well. As the long term precipitation time series show, a total
lack of precipitation can occur in nearly any month, and hence precipitation levels of
200-300 mm can even occur during the six month summer season.
With the annual precipitation falling on average over 120-160 rainy days, rainfall
can be expected on every third day of the year. The annual distribution of rainy days
does not correspond to the precipitation distribution, as there is a higher concentra-
tion of rainy days at the end of autumn/beginning of winter, and a low concentration at
the end of summer. This means that summer precipitation comes from less frequent
but heavier rainfalls, while autumn-winter precipitation accumulates from more fre-
quent, lighter rainfalls.
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Figure 11 Average Precipitation for Budapest from 1901-1960
80
70
80
50
E40 —
19 0 1-6 0
30 —
20
10 –
0
-5
2
2
C
C
2
E
E
2
8
g
8
z
months
In our zone some of the precipitation falls in the form of snow. In lower areas of the
country the average number of days with snow is 20-30, while it is about 50-60 in the
higher mountains. Precipitation in the form of snow amounts to 50-100 mm on the
Plain and Transdanubia, while it can even exceed 150 mm in some of the mountainous
areas. About 10-15 percent of the annual precipitation in flat areas comes as snow, and
20-25 percent in the mountains.
When temperatures remain below zero, snowfall creates a snow-cover for some
time. This snow-cover remains for the shortest time in the middle and south areas of
the Plain, where the number of days with snow-cover is about 30-35. Despite a relative-
ly milder winter, the greater portion of the Transdanubia has snow-cover for 40-50
days. The snow-cover remains for 100-120 days on mountains over 600-800 m. In the
case of long and severe winters the Plains region can be covered with snow for 80-100
days, while the duration of the snow-cover in the higher mountains can last for as many
as 140-160 days.
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4. CLIMATE VARIATIONS BY MONTH IN HUNGARY
DURING THE LITTLE ICE AGE AND RECENT
GLOBAL WARMING
To analyze the monthly climate changes I used the temperature and precipitation
time series of the climate history indexes for the whole Carpathian Basin, correlating
these to the time series of the instrument based measurements from the Budapest
observatory. Three types of data were included in the analysis of the climate change
trends. First the temperature and precipitation anomalies which were regarded as
most significant for purposes of climate reconstruction were selected. Then the main
points and trends of the 10-year average time series were described, and finally the
course of climate changes over the centuries were discussed with the assistance of the
50-year average time series.
4.1. January
4.1.1. January Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
Temperature data from the 16' century is so sparse that no conclusion concerning
the general climate-temperature trends can be drawn. The Bruckner Chronicle stated
that the gardens burst into bloom from December 1538 to January 1539 owing to the
mild weather (Rethly, 1962:70). Sebestyen Borsos also reported similar mild weather in
Transylvania in January 1555 (Rethly, 1962:81; Borsos, 1855:17). In January 1560
Istvcinfi wrote in his diary that the Hungarian military forces could easily cross over on
the frozen ice of the River Tisza (Rethly, 1962:84; Istvanfi, 1867:443). January 1565 was
again cold in the Highlands and on the Plain, as recorded by Istvcinfi, stating that the
rivers of both regions had thick ice cover (Rethly, 1962:84; Istvanfi, 1867:443). The cold
weather of January 1567, Istvcinfi noted, caused a lot of grief for the royal troops in the
Highlands (Rethly, 1962:89; Istvcinfi, 1867:560). The series of cold January months in
the years beginning in 1560 ended with a mild mid-winter in 1568, as noted in
Zsigmond Torda's detailed records on the weather in the Highlands (Rethly, 1962:270).
The growing number of sources available from the last decade of the 16' century
shows that most of the January months from the turn of the 17' century until the 1660s
were especially cold. The first two decades of this fifty-year period saw the 15-year war
between the Habsburg and Turkish Empire (1593-1606), and the war-related records
include weather reports. The first record of a January anomaly were in Istvcinfi's diary,
who wrote that in 1594 the royal troops in the Highlands found shelter from the
January cold weather at the walls of the fortress in Kogice (H-Kassa) (Rethly, 1962:104;
Istvanfi, 1867:692). In 1601 the cold weather in January prevented the movement of
military troops in Transylvania (Rethly, 1962:114; Nagy Szabo, 1855:65). In 1607 accord-
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
ing to Mate Sepsi Laczko notes January was very mild in the Highlands (Rethly,
1962:124; Sepsi Laczk6,1857:115) Januarys of the 1640's remained very cold, but no
special anomalies were reported. For two years in 1640s the midwinter was extremely
cold, while Transylvania had a particularly cold January in 1641 (Rethly, 1962:163;
Haller, 1862:67). Between these cold years in 1642 January was mild in Transylvania
(Rethly, 1962:166; Krauss, 1862:136) Gyorgy Rakoczi II, Prince of Transylvania reported
in his letters of 1645 that the lower part of the Danube at South Plain froze (Rethly,
1962:173; II. Rcilcoczi, 1877:359). In the mid-16'h century the war between the Emperor
and the Sultan started again and in January 1656 the Turkish troops were able to cross
the frozen Danube at Gyor and massacre Christians (Rethly, 1962:184; Speisser,
1712:460). The series of cold Januarys in the first two thirds of the 17" century ended
with the cold anomaly in 1669 when a nobleman from the Highlands reported that it
was impossible to go hunting in January due to the very cold weather and deep snow
cover (Rethly, 1962:290).
The decade of 1670s brought mild Januarys, then it became extremely cold at the
turn of the 18'h century. In January 1684 the Payr Chronicle recorded that the weather
in Transdanubia was so cold that the water pipes in the houses and wine in the cellars
froze, and the grapevines were damaged by the frost (Rethly, 1962:229; Payr, 1942:85).
Zsigmond Szaniszlo and Gyorgy Czegei Vass also recorded similarly cold weather in
Transylvania in January 1685 (Rethly, 1962:341). The temperature was especially low in
January 1694 as noted by the different authors from the Highlands, Transylvania and
from the Plain. The most interesting of these was probably the report by Prince Imre
ThOkOly saying that the lower Danube at the South-Plain froze (Rethly, 1962:332).
Doctor Raygeri noted in January 1697 that the Danube froze between Transdanubia
and the Highlands and remained so for more than 8 weeks (Rethly, 1962:255;
Sydenham, 1769:175). More than a decade later, in January 1709 the Fauth Chronicle
marked a record in cold weather in Transdanubia from time beyond recall, wines and
`palinka' (Hungarian brandy) froze in the casks while grapevines and walnut trees suf-
fered frost damage (Rethly, 1970:46).
This trend of cold weather in January turned much milder in the 1720s and 1730s. In
January 1727 GyOrgy Buchholtz from the Highlands wrote that the weather was fairly
mild and there was a constant wind from the South (Rethly, 1970:121; Nachrichten,
1727:30).
The coldest series of Januarys began in 1740 and lasted for 15 years according to my
climate history based temperature time series, which shows that January 1740 in
Transylvania was extremely cold, with strong winds. This weather even lead to some
deaths (Rethly, 1970:157). Januarys of 1743 and 1745 also brought very cold weather to
Transylvania (Rethly, 1970:168, 170; Clauser, 1937:230). The series of cold Januarys
ended in January 1755, when trees suffered frost damage during the severe Winter
weather in Transylvania and mills were unable to grind due to the fact that even moun-
tain streams froze (Rethly, 1970:191; Bielz, 1862:65).
The cold January weather lessened in the 1760's and 1770's. Thanks to the mild and
rainy weather in January 1764 meadows were green (Rethly, 1970:211; Cserei Gy.,
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
1875:388). In 1771 the Historia Domus of the Franciscan Order in Gyongyos reported
a mild and rainy January (Rethly, 1970:474). The Calvinist pastor, Istvcin Kortvelyesi Pap
Junior wrote in his diary that despite having some frost early in January 1772, it quickly
turned mild and the frost on the soil disappeared (Rethly, 1970:503).
The cold weather returned in the 1780's, the columnist of Tressburger Zeitung' in
the Highlands wrote that most of the wells froze in January 1784 and there was a great
shortage of water, with the daily minimum temperatures in settlements in higher
regions dropping to -29,4 °C (Rethly, 1970:311; P.Z., 4' February). Similarly cold
weather was registered at the Buda observatory on 5 and 7 January, both -21,3 °C. The
Historia Domus of the Franciscan Order in Eger, however, reported in 1788 that
January precipitation fell only in the form of rain (Rethly, 1970:513). The records from
Transdanubia, the Highlands and the Plain also remarked on a cold January in 1799,
while the correspondent of `Neuer Courir aus Ungarn' from the Plain reported that
wine froze in the cellars, water-powered mine machinery did not operate, and wood
became very expensive (Rethly, 1970:452; N.C.U., 29th January ).
The historical sources from the first half of the 19th century reported on milder
weather in January. This trend started in January 1804 when the article of `Zipser
Bote' noted from the Highlands that there was not any snow, only rain during the
month (Rethly, 1998m:34; Z.B., 1879:2).
The series of this mild weather in the first half of the 19th century was interrupted
only once at the beginning of 1810's. In January 1811 the correspondents from
Transdanubia and the Plain reported in the column `Hazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok'
(Local and Foreign Reports) that there was a thick ice cover on the Danube in January
1811 which allowed transportation on the river (Rethly, 1998m:95; H.K.T., 26th
January). In January 1813 the Buda observatory registered temperatures as low as -22,
-25 °C, and the correspondent of Pressburger Zeitung' from the Plain wrote that sev-
eral shepherds died and the price of cattle dropped due to the shortage of coal (Rethly,
1998m:120; P.Z., 15th January).
As of the 1820's mild average temperatures in January became dominant. In
January 1822 the articles state that the weather was so mild that the grass turned green
on the streets and in the city parks (Rethly, 1998m:311). January 1824 passed by with
mild days, said the news from the Plain (Rethly, 1998m: 79). Mihaly Kircily, Calvinist
pastor in Transylvania wrote in his diary that weather in January 1825 was rather more
like spring than winter (Rethly, 1998m:955). There was an exception in the middle of
the winter of 1826 when the newspapers reported extremely cold weather. Minus 19 °C
was registered in Buda on January 19', and the Danube froze even between Pest and
Buda (Rethly, 1998m:365; H.K.T., 21" January). The notes in the Historia Domus of the
Franciscan Order in Jaszbereny related very cold weather in January 1830, with tem-
peratures as low as -27 °C registered at the monastery at the end of the month (Rethly,
1998m:421). Following a few cold Januarys the correspondent in Buda commented in
January 1832 in the column `Hazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign
Reports) that the weather was spring-like, and the roads were muddy (Rethly,
1998m:459; H.K.T., 1" February). January 1833 in Transylvania — according to the news
31
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
in `Hazai es Ktilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) — brought cold weather
the likes of which had never been experienced before (Bethly, 1998m:468; H.K.T., 30th
January). Whilst a year later, in January 1834 each region of the country enjoyed a rare
`heat'. In the register of a parish in Veszprem (Transdanubia) it was noted that the
sour-cherry tree bloomed on January 22" (Bethly, 1998m:481). The trend of mild
Januarys continued in the 1840's, and Mihcily Kiraly, a Transylvanian pastor wrote that
January 1843 was mild, windy and rainy (Bethly, 1998m:1017). The writers of `Nemzeti
Ujsag' (National Paper) also wrote about autumn-like mild weather in January 1845
and 1846 (Bethly, 1998m: 284, 287; N.U., P' February, 1846). The last January anomaly
in my climate history reconstruction occurs in 1848, on the eve of the revolution, when
the Pest-Buda correspondent for `Nemzeti Ujsag' (National Paper) wrote that the
Danube was frozen on January 13'" through to the end of the month (Bethly,
1998m:705; N.U., 14" January).
An analysis of the mean temperatures by decade from the Budapest temperature
time series reveals that the average January temperatures in the middle of the 19 1h cen-
tury show a stable period of cold weather, while those for the last third of the century
show a trend of warmer Januarys lasting into the first decades of the 20th century. In
the middle third of the 20th century the weather dropped considerably twice, the first in
the 1940's, and the second in the 1960's. Since the 1970's the average January tempera-
ture has shown a steady rising trend.
Figure 12 January temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today.
The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the time series of a history based
climate reconstruction, while the second diagram is based on the time series
for instrument observations from the Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
2
a
o E
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BP -T
-2
-3
-4
years
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
3
60
55
2
50
45
0
40
35
30
-2
25
3
20
years
4.1.2. January Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
It was not possible to get a general picture of the January precipitation rates of the
16'h century due to scarcity of information sources available. These sources grew in
number in the final decades of the 1500's and show that dry winters were rare in the
Carpathian Basin, as were positive precipitation anomalies.
The first positive precipitation of January in my climate history records dates from
1607, when Mate Sepsi Laczk6 reported from Transylvania that the weather was rainy
and cloudy (Rethly, 1962:124; Sepsi Laczko, 1857:115).
After the surplus of precipitation during mild Januarys in the 17'h century, the
Januarys of the 1680's decade through the years of the 1720's turned not only cold, but
also snow-covered, and the precipitation anomalies also grew. January 1684 was very
snowy in Transylvania according to the diary of Zsigmond Szaniszlo (Rethly, 1962:85).
Gyorgy Czegei Vass from Transylvania said that January of 1694 had an unusually high
volume of snowfall (Rethly, 1962:348). The Payr chronicles from Sopron reported very
cold days in Transdanubia in January 1697 with heavy snowfalls (Rethly, 1962:256; Payr,
1942:91), and Janos Adam Gensel, a medical doctor in Sopron wrote that Transdanubia
had a snow-cover of 9 feet (about 3 m) in January 1712 (Rethly, 1970:56; Sydenham,
1769:240).
After the years of the 1730's-1740's when there were balanced levels of January pre-
cipitation there was again a period of steady surplus precipitation in the second half of
the 18'" century. The first January precipitation anomaly worth mentioning of the half-
century was registered in 1754 in the Bruckner Chronicles of Sopron according to
which the regular January fairs could not take place due to the huge amount of snow in
Transdanubia (Rethly, 1970:190). In 1771 the Historia Domus of the Franciscan
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Monastery in Gyongyos reported that there were serious spates in the Highlands fol-
lowing the uninterrupted periods of rain (Rethly, 1970:474). Istvcin Kortvelyesi Pap
Junior, the Calvinist pastor of the Highlands indicated that January of 1774 was a wet
one, but this time in the form of snow (Rethly, 1971:504). January of 1788, according to
the Historia Domus of the Franciscan Monastery in Eger was again very wet in the
Highlands (Rethly, 1970:513).
In the first half of the 19'h century January precipitation was balanced, with the first
anomaly coming as late as January 1838 when a correspondent wrote in the Ilazai es
Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) that the snowfall in Pest-Buda was
so heavy that traffic in the city was nearly blocked (Rethly, 1998m:549; H.K.T., 17'h
January).
The continuous precipitation time series for January in Budapest starting in 1841
shows very unbalanced changes, with the middle of the 19'h century exhibiting a stable
precipitation level, followed by anomalies in opposing directions decade by decade. Of
the January precipitation anomalies, the negative anomalies of the decades of the
1880's and 1900's deserve special attention, as do the positive ones in 1890's, 1940's
and 1950's. Despite the major changes in the averages for various decades, there is a
clear trend in the January months towards a higher rate of precipitation from the
beginning of the 20th century.
4.1.3. January Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
Temperature
The high index for the first half of the 16'h century is calculated based on one single
figure, and therefore cannot be used for purposes of reconstructing climate history.
The 50-year averages calculated on the basis of climate history time series show a
prevalence of cold Januarys starting from the second half of the 16th century until the
end of the 18'" century. The coldest period of this cold era was in the 17th century and,
following the period of temporary mild weather in the first half of the 18 91 century, the
turn of the 19'h century brought a stable trend of milder weather. The Budapest data
prove that Januarys of the 19th century were equally cold, while the 50-year averages
for Januarys started to gradually rise after the turn of the 20'h century.
Precipitation
The 50-year average calculated from the January precipitation time series of my cli-
mate history reconstruction shows a slight, but stable precipitation for the duration of
the three and a half centuries. There is little indication of fluctuation, with the first rel-
ative maximum precipitation dating from the first half of the 17 1" century, followed by
some decreases until the mid-1700s, and a trend of Januarys with much higher precipi-
tation rates again in the second half of the 18'h century. The Budapest time series
34
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
reveals a significant dry period starting in the first half of the 19' century that changed
only in the 20th century.
Climatic Change Characteristics
The climatic history of the Little Ice Age with it's prevalence of cold, snowy
Januarys lasted from the turn of the 17th century until the second half of the 19'h centu-
ry. The trend towards milder and drier weather in January goes back until the turn of
the 19" century, but dry and mild weather appeared together in the first half of the 20"
century. January temperatures continued to rise in the second half of the 20" century,
while the trend towards lower precipitation rates stopped. During this period, January
precipitation rates increased and often came in the form of rain or sleet due to the
higher temperatures.
Figure 13 January temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the
time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram
is based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest
observatory (1780-1996)
1.5
0.5
0
-0.5 LI
a—
8
I
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
years
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
2
44
1.5
43
42
0.5
41
1
i HP
0
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f
—6— BP-P
1550
1603
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
-0.5
39
-1
38
-1.5
37
-2
36
yearn
4.2. February
4.2.1. February Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
There are no sources available from the first half of the 15'h century concerning the
weather changes in February. The first February-related data was noted by Sebestyen
Borsos writing in his chronicle that February of 1555 brought very mild weather to
Transylvania (Rethly, 1962:81; Borsos, 1855:17).
In the 1560s and 1570s the weather in February turned cold. In February 1565 the
River Tisza had such a thick ice cover along the border between the Plain and the
Highlands that even heavy guns could be transported on it (Rethly, 1962:87; Istvtinfi,
1867:504). Istvtinfi wrote in his chronicle in February 1567 that the royal troops suf-
fered considerably from the cold weather in the Highlands (Rethly, 1962:89; Istvcinfi,
1867:560). Turkish sources reported that in February 1575 Pasha Mahmut and his
escorts arriving from Constantinople crossed the frozen Danube at the Town of
Komarom on the border between Transdanubia and the Highlands (Rethly, 1962:92;
Takcits, 1915:368).
The February temperature turned mild at the turn of the 17th century illustrated by a
note in the Bruckner Chronicle that the trees turned green in February 1583 due to the
mild weather (Rethly, 1962:97). It was also noted in the Bruckner Chronicle that
forests in Transdanubia turned green again in 1607 (Rethly, 1962:125).
From the 1610s until the 1670s the February months were mostly cold and had sta-
ble average temperatures in the Carpathian Basin. Saxon chronicles indicate that
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Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
February 1652 was extremely cold in Transylvania (Rethly, 1962:180; Krauss, 1862:186).
Chronicles from the Highlands reported that mid-winter in 1660 brought very severe
weather (Rethly, 1962:189; Szalardi, 1853:607).
The last two decades of the 17'h century passed mainly with cold Februarys and with
several temperature anomalies. This period of severe weather started in February 1684
when Zsigmond Szaniszlo wrote from Transylvania that the cold weather caused deaths
among both people and animals (Rethly, 1962:385). Gyiirgy Czegei Vass noted that
February 1685 was not better than the year before (Rethly, 1962:341). Zsigmond
Szaniszla's chronicle showed that February 1689 was again extremely cold in
Transylvania (Rethly, 1962:388). Imre Theikoly wrote in his diary that mid-winter 1693
brought spring-like weather to the Plain (Rethly, 1962-325). The medical doctor
Raygeri reported from Transdanubia that February 1697 (just like the whole winter)
was extremely cold and the Danube had ice cover for a long time (Rethly, 1962:255;
Sydenham, 1769:175).
The first decade of the 18" century shows an end to the series of predominantly cold
years, with cold temperature anomalies balanced by mild midwinters. In February 1702
Doctor Loew reported from Transdanubia that the weather was very summer-like, with
violets and waxflowers (Ceresorum acidorum) blossoming in the middle of the month
(Rethly, 1970:30; Sydenham, 1769:297). According to Loew's notes, mid-winter 1705
brought frosts to the Transdanubia (Rethly, 1970:36; Sydenham, 1769:312). February
1708 in the Highlands was mild but quite wet as well, and Loew wrote that flowers in
Transdanubia blossomed that February as well (Rethly, 1970:42; Sydenham, 1769:334).
Transylvanian records indicate that February 1709 brought very severe cold weather
again (Rethly, 1970:84; Cserei M., 1852:420). Janos Adam Gensel commented that the
weather in February 1713 was mild and rainy (Rethly, 197:60; Sydenham, 1769:243).
The beginning of the 18'h century saw mainly fairly stable and less cold Februarys.
According to the weather observations of Janos Adam Reimann February 1725 brought
very cold weather, and the same was noted in diaries from the Plain (Rethly, 1970:108-
! 109; Sammlung, 1725:121). Information from the Highlands indicate that February
1740 brought a steady and long fall in temperature (Rethly, 1970:156; Paldczi-Horvath,
1881:117). The diaries of this period reported that February 1763 was dry and warm in
Transylvania (Rethly, 1970:203; Halmagyi, 1906:58), a year later, in February 1764 not
only were the trees green in Transylvania, but planting had also begun (Rethly,
1970:211; Cserei Gy., 1875:388). Pressburger Zeitung' wrote that the winter of 1776
passed with mild, rainy weather on the Plain (Rethly, 1970:246; P.Z., 24" February).
The months of February in the first half of the 19>th century were fairly mild with the
number of warm anomalies exceeding that of cold ones. February 1806 in the
Highlands was mild, rainy and foggy, and many people even started planting that
month (Rethly, 1998m:52). The Pest-Buda correspondent wrote in `Hazai 65 Kiilfoldi
Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) that the winter of 1816 ended with extreme-
ly cold weather, so that the Danube froze between Pest and Buda on the night of
February 13 (Rethly, 1998m:224; H.K.T., 17" February). February 1817 in the
Highlands had nice warm weather (Rethly, 1998m:253). The correspondents from the
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Highlands, Plain and Transdanubia reported in the `Hazai es KUlfOldi Tudositasok'
(Local and Foreign Reports) that there were only a few frosts at night at the end of the
winter of 1818, while the weather remained warm (Rethly, 1998m:260; H.K.T., 11th
February). The Bruckner Chronicle informs us that the weather was so nice in
February 1824, that agricultural work could begin in the spring (Rethly, 1998m:347).
There were only two frosty Februarys worth mentioning in the first quarter of the
19th century, the first one in 1826, the second in 1830. It was written in the `Hazai es
Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) that the temperature in Cluj (H-
Kolozsvar) fell as low as -19 °C in February 1826 (Rethly, 1998m:366; H.K.T., 24'
March) The Historia Domus by the Franciscan Monastery in Jaszbereny remarked
that February 1830 brought extremely cold weather (Rethly, 1998m:422).
The series of mild Februarys continued from the mid-1830s. Pressburger Zeitung'
published in February 1834 that the weather was so pleasant that vine-growers in
Transdanubia started dressing the vine (Rethly, 1998m:482; P.Z., 26' February). An
unknown diarist from the Plain wrote that late winter of 1835 brought mild weather
while Rethly noted that it was muddy (Rethly, 1998m:1113). In 1843 an unknown diarist
in Transdanubia also commented that February saw such mild, spring-like weather that
trees blossomed and frogs were even heard croaking (Rethly, 1998m:643). The last
anomaly of my February temperature time series is a positive one and dates from 1846.
Gabor Ecsedy, a Calvinist pastor in the Plain wrote that the winter ended with spring-
like warm weather (Rethly, 1998m:1172).
The 10-year averages of the February temperature time series from Budapest show
a cooling trend in the first half of the 19th century. Februarys of this century were rather
cold, except for the very warm anomaly in the 1850s. A significant warming trend start-
ed in the 1890s and led to positive anomalies in the 1900s and 1930s. There were cool
periods in the 1940s and 1950s, followed later from the 1960s onwards by a series of
milder Februarys when large variations were observed.
38
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 14 February temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades
from the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on
the time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second dia-
gram is based on the time series for instrument observations from the
Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
3.5
2-
3
2.5
5 .E
1
H-T
5 8
0
-0.5
-1.5
-3
2
years
3
59
-56
2-
- 53
so
- 47
44
41
4-1-1-P
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r
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§ § g
§ §
n
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§
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-3
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
4.2.2. February Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
Similarly to the temperature time series there are no information available on late
winter precipitation from the first half of the 16' century. The first anomaly in my his-
torical climatic reconstruction dates from February 1585 which passed with dry weath-
er continuing into spring (Rethly, 1962:98-99; Bielz, 1862:21).
Starting from the 1590s, the February months remained rather wet for the next cen-
tury, yet despite the constant precipitation surplus there are only two positive anom-
alies known to us. In 1594 Istvcinfi wrote in his chronicle that the constant February
rain and sleet restricted the movements of the royal troops in Transdanubia (Rethly,
1962:105; Istwinfi, 1867:694). According to Transylvanian news from February 1642 it
rained every day and prevented movement of traffic on the roads (Rethly, 1962:166;
Haller, 1862:76).
The weather in February at the turn of the 18' century became dry. By winter 1686
it got so dry that there were fires in the fields as reported by the Transylvanian
Zsigmond Szaniszlo (Rethly, 1962:387). An unknown diarist reported from the Plain,
that there was neither snow, nor rain in February 1696 (Rethly, 1962:252). Doctor Loew
recorded frost in February 1705 but there was no snowfall at all (Rethly, 1970:36;
Sydenham, 1769:312) and he further noted that the series of dry Februarys ended in
1708 with a mild and rainy winter (Rethly, 1970:84).
February precipitation increased again in the 1710s, when Jcinos Adam Gensel wrote
that late winter 1713 brought constant 'warm rain' to Transdanubia starting on the 10"
of February (Rethly, 1970:60; Sydenham, 1769:243).
These fairly wet decades led to a fairly dry period between the 1730s and 1750s with
no remarkable anomalies.
Starting from mid-1760s the end of the winter saw a higher rate of precipitation and
this trend continued until the first decade of the 19' century. The first anomaly of the
1760s was negative as February 1763 went by with dry and warm weather in
Transylvania (Rethly, 1970:203; Halmagyi, 1906:58). Istvan Kortvelyesi Pap Junior, a
Calvinist pastor wrote in his diary in February 1765 that there were serious snowfalls at
the beginning of the month, with precipitation late in the month falling as rain while
the snow melted (Rethly, 1970:500). In February 1776 the 'Pressburger Zeitung' corre-
spondent from the Plain reported that the month passed with mild weather, but there
were long periods of rain (Rethly, 1970:246; P.Z., 24' February). Samuel Benko, a med-
ical doctor in the Highlands wrote that in 1781 the month was cold with a lot of snow-
fall (Rethly, 1970:524), while the 'Pressburger Zeitung' correspondent reported that
roads and settlements were in danger from foxes due to the thick snow cover (Rethly,
1970:279, P.Z., 7'h February). The winter in 1804 ended in the Highlands with such sig-
nificant snowfalls, people could not leave their homes until they made a tunnel (Rethly,
1998m:34).
Februarys in the first half of the 19' century were fairly stable and only one precipi-
tation anomaly was recorded. The Pest-Buda correspondent reported an extremely dry
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
February in 1821 in `Hazai es Ktilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports)
(Rethly, 1998m:296; H.K.T., 7'h and 26th February).
The Budapest instrumental measurements showed that the weather in February in
the second half of the 19' century was mostly dry, while the end of the winter was
extremely dry in the 1850s, 1860s and 1880s. From the beginning of the 20" century
February precipitation increased significantly, reaching peak levels in the 1930s and
1940s. Precipitation levels then began decreasing from the mid-20' century, which
became quite noticeable in the 1960s.
4.2.3. February Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
Temperature
The February months from the second half of the 16'h century until the end of the
17' century were somewhat colder than the average. The 50-year February tempera-
ture time series shows that February temperatures started to get milder during the first
half of the 18' century, a trend that continues until today, and this process has speeded
up especially in the 20th century.
Precipitation
The 50-year averages calculated from the climate history precipitation index time
series show a permanent February precipitation surplus, but to differing extents from
the second half of the 16th until the middle of the 19th century. When graphed out, the
February precipitation diagram shows two peaks, a stronger one in the first half of the
17' century, and a lesser one in the second half of the 18' century. The time series of
reconstructed climate history and the Budapest instrument-based data show that
February precipitation dropped significantly for a long period in the 19th century.
Februarys in the first half of the 20' century apparently had higher precipitation levels
followed by a slight drop in the second half of the century.
Climate Change Characteristics
The Februarys of the Little Ice Age were mostly cold and snowy beginning in the
second half of the 16th through the end of the 17' century. While this slight wet trend
continued through the 18'h century and into the first half of the 19' century, Februarys
turned milder. This trend of February months getting milder has remained notable
until today, in conjunction first with a precipitation decrease in the 19" century, fol-
lowed by a significant rise in precipitation in the first half of the 20' century and anoth-
er precipitation drop in the second half of the century.
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 15 February temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades
from the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on
the time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second dia-
gram is based on the time series for instrument observations from the
Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
2
3
1.5 —
— 2.5
1—
—2
0.5 —
— 1.5
I
H-T
0
1
BP-1- 1
1550
1600
1660
1700
1750
1800
1850
1903
1950
2000
-as -
— 0.5
-1 -
-1.5 —
— -0.5
-2
1
yell%
2
— 52
1.5
— 49
— 46
_43
0.5
I
—
F—E— H-P
0
BP PJ
— 37
-as
- 34
—31
-1.5
— 28
2
25
years
42
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
4.3. March
4.3.1. March Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
The March months in the first part of the 16'h century were fairly winter-like, in 1507
the Bruckner Chronicle wrote that the snow cover remained in Transdanubia also for
March (Rethly, 1962:59). According to the Bruckner Chronicle, the long-lasting winter
prevented the start of the spring agricultural work in March 1525 (Rethly, 1962:63).
There were snowfalls in Transdanubia in the second half of March 1543 amidst cold
weather (Rethly, 1962:73; Kecseti, 1859:84). Zsigmond Torda wrote in his diary that the
beginning of spring in 1565 had cold but fine weather (Rethly, 1962:268).
No clear trend can be outlined from the sparse data originating at the turn of the
17'h century. A study of the sources from the 17'h century shows clearly that the months
of March were mostly cold throughout the century, although negative temperature
anomalies were recorded for the first time in the 1650s. In March 1651 the Payr
Chronicle reported that the second half of the month was cold and snowy in
Transdanubia (Rethly, 1962:180; Payr, 1942:38). A year later, in 1652 the Bruckner
Chronicle reported that there was frost every day in March and agricultural work was
delayed in Transdanubia as late as April (Rethly, 1962:181). Transdanubia had a cold,
snowy and rainy early spring again in 1655 according to the Payr Chronicle (Rethly,
1962:184; Payr, 1942:47). Ambrus Keczer wrote in his diary in 1666 that the weather was
wintry for the whole month of March in the Highlands (Rethly, 1962:286). March 1683
saw very wintry weather, wrote Zsigmond Torda (Rethly, 1962:384), the vegetation in
Transylvania which had blossomed in the mild February weather, suffered a lot of frost
damage in March (Rethly, 1962:226; Hain D., 1853:22). The first warm March in the
historical climate time series was recorded in March 1686 when early spring brought
warm, fine weather to Transdanubia (Rethly, 1962:234; Csanyi, 1858:122). Yet the mild
March weather did not remain for the rest of the 17th century. Transylvanian records
say that March 1691 was very cold, windy and rainy (Rethly, 1962:240; Cserei M,
1893:151). Raygeri's meteorological diary reported very cold winter in March in
Transdanubia as well (Rethly, 1962:255; Sydenham, 1769:175).
By the beginning of the 18th century the cold March months were no longer so domi-
nant, as indicated in the Fauth Chronicle in 1710 which describes an early spring in
Transdanubia free of rain and with warm weather (Rethly, 1970:51).
Cold Marches again became dominant from the 1720s. In 1725 Gyorgy Buchholtz
reported from the Highlands that there were regular snowfalls and the ice on the
streams was so thick ice that even vehicles could cross on it (Rethly, 1970:109;
Sammlung, 1725:229-230). Gyorgy Buchholtz observed that cool Marches were fol-
lowed by a very mild early spring in 1728 in the Highlands (Rethly, 1970:127;
Nachrichten, 1728:892). A Transylvanian pastor wrote in his diary in 1731 that the win-
ter cold remained into the early days of April (Rethly, 1970:139; Vciscirhelyi, 1948:145).
March 1760 passed in Transylvania with such cold and windy weather that it prevented
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
the start of various agricultural works (Rethly, 1970:199; Cserei Gy., 1875:358).
According to the Historia Domus of the Franciscan Monastery in Gyongyos, March
1763 brought very cold snowy weather to the Highlands, causing the death of many
sheep, and vine-growers suffered considerable frost damages as well (Rethly,
1970:472). Reports from this period indicate that March 1767 passed with cold snowy
weather in Transylvania (Rethly, 1970:224; Cserei Gy., 1875:421), and a Pressburger
Zeitung' correspondent reported from the Highlands that the torment caused by the
early spring spates were coupled with very cold weather in 1768 (Rethly, 1970:227; P.Z.,
9'h March). Istvcin Kortvelyesi Pap Junior, Calvinist pastor in the Highlands wrote in his
diary that the beginning of March was pleasant, but turned to winter again on the 12'h
of March (Rethly, 1970:503). According to Kiirtvelyesi Junior's notes the year 1773
brought cold weather to the Highlands, while there were snow storms in the Plain
causing the death of many animals (Rethly, 1970:235, 503). Istvcin Kortvelyesi Pap
Junior's diary reported about March 1775 that there was still plenty of snow that month
(Rethly, 1970:504). The Tressburger Zeitung' correspondents from the Highlands and
the Plain reported that the snow cover remained until the end of March 1784 and it
was impossible to find fodder at any price (Rethly, 1970:314; P.Z., 20th and 27'h March).
The meteorological notes of Samuel Benko, a medical doctor in Miskolc, show that the
average temperature in March 1800 was one degree lower than the February average
(Rethly, 1970:464), and articles from the Plain reported that retailers left for the Pest
fair in 'big snow' on the 19th of March (Rethly, 1970:464; Magdics, 1888:157).
March in the first two decades of the 19'h century passed with fairly stable, cool
weather, without any remarkable cold anomalies. Starting from the 1820s, early spring
weather turned extremely cold again. Articles from the Plain state that early- and mid-
March of 1820 brought severe frosts, and the weather turned pleasant by the end of the
month (Rethly, 1998m:292). The correspondents from the Plain and Transdanubia
wrote for `Hazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) that the
extremely cold weather of March 1824 caused death for both people and animals,
while the frost froze the almond and peach-trees (Rethly, 1998m:340; H.K.T., 13"
March and 3rd April). Particularly early, and mid-March of 1825 were winter-like, and a
Pest columnist wrote in Ilazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports)
that there were regular snowfalls until the middle of the month, with temperatures
dropping as low as -10, -11,5 °C (Rethly, 1998m:353; H.K.T., 16th March).
In 1830 the ice bridge between Buda and Pest remained on the Danube until the 19"
of March (Rethly, 1998m:427; H.K.T., 31s' March). Laszlo Zlinszky wrote from the Plain
and Mihaly Kiraly from Transylvania that March 1834 passed with cold, frosty weather,
and that there were several snowfalls in Transylvania, and going sleigh-riding was pos-
sible even at the end of the month (Rethly, 1998m:935, 980). Laszlo Zlinszky recorded
in 1838 that the ice remained on the Danube until mid-March (Rethly, 1998m:937),
while Gabor Ecsedy, Calvinist pastor wrote that it was snowing in the Plain also at the
end of the month (Rethly, 1998m:1127). According to the correspondant of `Hazai es
Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) March of 1839 were continuously
cold and snowy in Transylvania (Rethly, 1998m: 577; H.K.T., 20'" April). In 1840 the
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Historia Domus of the Franciscan Monastery in Mernye (Transdanubia) wrote that the
mild winter was followed by such a cold March that it prevented the start of agricultur-
al work, and the almond and peach crop was destroyed by frost (Rethly, 1998m:609).
Gabor Ecsedy, Calvinist pastor in the Plain noted that March 1843 passed with misty
and frosty weather (Rethly, 1998m:1156). The early spring of 1845 was again remark-
ably cold and the `Nemzeti Ujsag' (National Paper) reported that the ice on the
Danube started to break up at Pest-Buda on the 21st of March and was still breaking up
on the 30th (Rethly, 1998m:669; N.U., 23" and 30th March). The first part of March 1847
was extremely cold and `Nemzeti Ojsag' (National Paper) reported from the Highlands
that there was still ice on the rivers in the middle of the month, and temperatures
dropped as low as -10, -14 °C (Rethly, 1998m:695; N.U., 21" March). The correspon-
dent from the Plain wrote for 'Pesti Naplo' (Diary of Pest) that the Tisza River started
to freeze up again owing to the extreme cold weather of March of 1850 (Rethly,
1998m:716; RN., 29'h March).
According to the average March temperatures of the Budapest time series over the
centuries, early springs were cold in the middle of the 19th century, but a warming trend
began in the mid-1800s and has continued until today. The first wave of March warm-
ing had its peak in the 1910s, followed by a slight cooling trend until the 1940s. The
warming trend inevitably continued, with some variations, in the second half of the 20"
century.
Figure 16 March temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the
time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram
is based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest
observatory (1780-1996)
years
45
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
H-P
BP-CS
4.3.2. March Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
Regarding March precipitation, there is inadequate source material to reveal any
trends for the 16th century. There are Saxon notes available stating that March 1580
was very dry in Transylvania (Rethly, 1962:96; Hain D., 1853:10).
The first signs of early spring becoming wet date from the last decade of the 16'h
century, when Istvcinfi's Chronicle reported that in March 1594 there were constant
rains and the roads, unfit for traffic due to the spates, prevented movement of the
royal troops in the Highlands (Rethly, 1962:105; Istvcinfi, 1867:697).
The March months were mostly wet from the beginning of the 17'h century until the
first decade of the 18th century. Despite the long-lasting prevalence of wet early
springs, the first positive precipitation anomaly was recorded as late as the middle of
the century. In 1655 the Payr Chronicle reported that March passed with sleet and
rainstorms in Transdanubia (Rethly, 1962:184; Payr, 1942:47-49). March of the year
1664 left Transdanubia without any precipitation, noted the Payr Chronicle also
(Rethly, 1962:200; Payr, 1942:61). Count Mihtily Teleki wrote in a letter that in March
1675 it often rained and there were several sleet storms in both Transylvania and the
Plain (Rethly, 1962:212; Teleki, 1905-26:VII.31). According to the Payr Chronicle,
March 1676 deserved special mention due to the dry weather in Transdanubia (Rethly,
1962:216; Payr, 1942:74). Andreas Loew, a medical doctor in Sopron wrote in his mete-
orological diary that Transdanubia received a considerable amount of snow early in
March 1707, followed later in the month by frequent rain, causing the roads to become
unfit for traffic (Rethly, 1970:41; Sydenham, 1769:323).
The series of mild but wet March months ended with a transitory period of dry early
springs in the 1710s. The Fauth Chronicle reported in 1710 that March passed without
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
any precipitation falling in Transdanubia (Rethly, 1962:51). The early spring of 1715
was dry, without a drop of rain in Transdanubia, wrote the Fauth Chronicle (Rethly,
1972:62).
Similarly to the previous century, the fairly wet March weather became prevalent
with a few anomalies starting from the 1720s until the end of the century. March 1767
went by with constant snow, sleet and rain storms in Transylvania (Rethly, 1970:224;
Halmagyi, 1906:300). 'Magyar Hirmond6' (Hungarian Messenger) and Pressburger
Zeitung'. correspondents reported early in the spring of 1782 that there were major
snowstorms across the country at the beginning of the month, while in the second half
there were rainfalls and spates unlike anything ever seen before (Rethly, 1970:292;
M.H., 3" April; P.Z., 3" April). The series of the wet years ended with a dry March in
1794, when 'Magyar Hirmondo' (Hungarian Messenger) reported from Transylvania
that there was not a drop of rain and the soil totally dried out (Rethly, 1970:411; M.H.,
2" April).
According to documentary sources, precipitation in March was very balanced in the
19' century, with only two anomalies recorded both negative ones. In March 1823 the
Pest-Buda columnist wrote in `Hazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign
Reports) that the dry weather prevented plowing (Rethly, 1998m:333; H.K.T., 5'h April).
Early spring in 1832 was so dry in the Plain and Transdanubia regions that clouds of
dust were formed and the wind "carried dust" (Rethly, 1998m:459; H.K.T., 16" April).
Following some decades of dry weather in the 1800s, the second half of the 19th cen-
tury and the first half of the 20" century were fairly wet. In this century we have experi-
enced mostly wet March months but the averages over the century varied within broad
limits with very wet March months of the 1860s, 1910s and 1930s, but early spring in
1890s and 1920s proved much drier. March in the second half of the 20'h century
became evidently much drier, and was extremely dry in the 1950s and 1970s.
4.3.3. March Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
Temperature
The diagram based on the 50-year averages of climate history reconstruction time
series outlines two characteristics of the early spring climate change: on one hand the
March months were mostly cold, but on the other hand, there were cyclic changes
within this cold scale. The big negative anomaly in the first half of the 16' century is
somewhat exaggerated and can be mainly attributed to the distorting effect of the very
limited amount of sources data. The time series of the 50-year averages can be regard-
ed as reflective of reality from the turn of the 17' century. One of the coldest periods
of the climate history) temperature time series for March was the second half of the
17' century, followed by a more stable period in the first half of the 18" century. There
was a continuing trend towards colder March months between the mid-18' and mid-
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
19' centuries. The Budapest temperature time series show that this pattern changed in
the second half of the 19' century when a gradual warming trend started which contin-
ues until the present day.
Precipitation
The 50-year precipitation averages calculated on the basis of the climate history
time series show a long term but slight precipitation surplus. It is quite interesting that
the time series shows a trend which started in the first half of the 16' century that,
while extremely mild, was stable and it accelerated slightly in the first half of the 19'h
century. The Budapest precipitation time series show similar in the second half of the
19" century and in the first half of the 20' century. They became significantly drier
from the mid-20' century onwards.
Climate Change Characteristics
The months of March in the Little Ice Age were mostly cold and fairly wet. The
coldest and wettest period was in the second half of the 17' century, while early spring
was far less wet during the significantly colder period of the 19" century. In the second
half of the 19'h century March started to turn warmer, while precipitation rates did not
change significantly until the mid-20th century, with the second half of the 20'h century
bringing early warmer and drier springs.
Figure 17 March temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the
time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram
is based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest
observatory (1780-1996)
2
1.5
0.5
0
H-T
-0.5
-1.5 -
2
years
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2
57
1.5
53
49
0.5
45
H-P
.11
—e— BP-P
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
41
-0.5
37
-1
33
-1.5
29
-2
25
yea.
4.4. April
4.4.1. April Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
There are insufficient sources available from the 16'h century to determine climate
trends, but nevertheless two remarkable negative temperature anomalies were record-
ed. In 1507 the Bruckner Chronicle wrote that the winter lasted until the end of May in
Transdanubia (Rethly, 1962:39). According to Gispcir Hain's Chronicle from Levoea
(H-Locse), the weather turned cold in April 1534 and the snow caused serious damage
to the trees in blossom and to the green crops (Rethly, 1962:68; Hain G., 1910-13:69).
The April weather in the mid-16'h century became very summer-like. In April 1540
the weather was very warm and dry for some time in Transylvania, which caused sever-
al forest-fires (Rethly, 1962:71; Bielz, 1862-63:70). After the eclipse of the 7" of April
1549, the middle of the spring was hot and dry again, causing repeated forest fires in
Transylvania (Rethly, 1962:76; Bielz, 1862-63:11). Transylvania had another unusually
hot April in 1556 (Rethly, 1962:81; Hain D., 1853-54:9). The series of warm Aprils
ended with a cold spring in 1565, when Transylvania suffered serious frost damages,
Zsigmond Torda also wrote that the month was cold, wet and cloudy (Rethly, 1962:87,
268; Bielz, 1862-63:15).
At the turn of the 17th century, there were fairly cold mid-springs. A long-lasting cli-
mate change trend appeared in the 1640s, when the April weather became significantly
colder, and this continued until the end of the century. Count Mihcily Teleki wrote a let-
ter from the Plain in April 1668 saying that it was snowing for weeks combined with
blizzards (Rethly, 1962:205; Teleki, 1905-26:1V289). In April 1676 Garpcir Hain record-
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
ed in his chronicle that there were significant snowfalls in the Highlands unlike any-
thing ever seen before causing severe damages both in the fields, and forests causing
the death of many forest animals (Rethly, 1962:215; Hain G., 1910-13:446). Raygeri
reported from the Highlands and Zsigmond Szaniszld from Transylvania in 1696 that
April brought severe frosts (Rethly, 1962:252; Sydenham, 1769:174). In 1700 the whole
of April brought frost and snow in Transdanubia, wrote Andreas Loew in his meteoro-
logical diary (Rethly, 1962:262).
The beginning of the 18'h century brought a renewed cooling trend that bottomed
out in the 1780s, and ended around the end of the century. The first typically cold
April was recorded in 1716, when the Fauth Chronicle reported that the winter that
year remained in Transdanubia until the end of April, and there was still not a single
green tree in early May (Rethly, 1970:64-66). Transylvania had constant snowfalls in
April of 1737, which prevented the farmers from beginning their spring tasks (Rethly,
1970:148; Apor, 1863:199), and reports from the Plain said that trees had no green
leaves at the beginning of May (Rethly, 1970:148; Bielz, 1862-63:62). The Transylvanian
Saxon chronicles said that April of 1740 was cold in Transylvania (Rethly, 1970:158;
Kdrolyi, 1866:V.169). On the other hand mid-spring was very warm in Transylvania in
1744, as diaries from this period state that several fruit trees blossomed in the second
half of the month (Rethly, 1970:171; Apor, 1863:235). Dry cold winds and scattered
snowstorms followed each other in April 1759 (Rethly, 1970:197; Cserei Gy., 1875:356).
Both Transdanubia and Transylvania experienced an unusually cold mid-spring in
1764, which caused a delay in the spring development of the vegetation (Rethly,
1970:213). There were extensive snowfalls in Transdanubia in March 1771, the snow
remained until April, and the spring planting could not start until early May (Rethly,
1970:232). Articles in both the Pressburger Zeitung' and the diary notes by Pastor
Isnyin Kortvelyesi Pap Junior reported that the Highlands had a cold and snowy April in
1775, and that winter weather prevailed practically until the end of the month (Rethly,
1970:242, 504; R Z., 8'h April). April 1784 was not only cold and snowy in the different
regions of the country, but the frequent snowstorms caused deaths among people and
animals (Rethly, 1970:315, 319-320; RZ., 14'h April).
Following the transitory mild weather at the turn of the 19'h century, it turned mostly
cold again in mid-spring. The Historia Domus from the Franciscan Monastery in Eger
wrote about cold weather in the Highlands in April 1802 (Rethly, 1998m:16). The cor-
respondents wrote in Ilazai es Kiilfoldi ThdosItasok' (Local and Foreign Reports)
about snowfall in all regions of the country in April 1812 and the prevalence of cold
weather costing the lives of many animals in the Plain (Rethly, 1998m:110-111; H.K.T.,
29th April). In April 1823 an unknown diarist wrote about dry and cold weather in the
Highlands, which greatly delayed the blossoming of the vegetation (Rethly,
1998m:338). The following year, 1824 brought similar weather to the Highlands in
mid-spring when April was again frosty and dry (Rethly, 1998m:349). Mihaly Kindly, a
Transylvanian Calvinist pastor wrote in 1826 that April brought cold weather, frequent
snow in mountainous regions, and frequent rain or sleet at lower elevations (Rethly,
1998m:958). There were reports of extremely cold weather and countrywide snowfalls
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
in April 1839 in liazai es Kiilfoldi Tudosltasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) and
'Vereinigte Ofner and Pester Zeitung' (Rethly, 1998m:580; H.K.T., 10° April).
Calvinist pastor Mihaly Kiraly wrote in his diary that April 1842 brought dry and cold
weather to Transylvania which had negative effects on vegetation and there was a seri-
ous shortage of coal (Rethly, 1998m:1014).
According to the 10-year averages of the Budapest precipitation time series, Aprils
in the first and second third of the 19° century were equally warm. Remarkably warm
were the decades of the 1820s, 1840s and 1860s. The last third of the 19' century start-
ed a significant cooling trend, which continued also through the first third of the 20+>°
century, with extremely cold April months for thirty years, from the beginning of the
century until the end of the 1920s. Mid-spring became warmer again in the second half
of the century with outstandingly warm weather in the 1940s and 1960s.
Figure 18 April temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the
time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram
is based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest
observatory (1780-1996)
ye an
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
81
76
71
66
- 61
56
i
H-P
51
-e- BP-CS
41
36
31
26
21
16
yam
4.4.2. April Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
Those few sources available from the mid-16'h century refer to very dry Aprils. The
Highlands received not a single drop of rain in mid-spring 1532, wrote Gatpcir Hain,
which resulted in a shortage of water and adequate grazing pasture for the herds
(Rethly, 1962:67; Hain G., 1910-13:53). Saxon sources from South Transylvania wrote
that April of 1540 was very hot and extremely dry, which caused wells to dry out and
numerous forest-fires as well (Rethly, 1962:71; Bielz, 1862-63:70). Transylvania experi-
enced another very dry April in 1549 when many rivers and wells dried up and there
were forest-fires again (Rethly, 1962:76; Bielz, 1862-63:11).
The first third of the 17th century brought a very wet period, the most remarkable
April precipitation anomaly of which came in 1614 when the Bruckner Chronicle
wrote that it rained throughout the whole month of April in Transdanubia (Rethly,
1962:133).
Precipitation was balanced in the April months of the last 67 years of the 17'h centu-
ry, and only three anomalies are known of. April 1668 was remarkable not only due to
its wet character, but because the most of the precipitation came in the form of snow
to the Plain and Transdanubia as Count Mihaly Teleki wrote in a letter (Rethly,
1962:205; Teleki, 1905-26:IV.289). Gaspcir Hain from Levoda (H-LA5cse) recorded in his
chronicle that there were extensive snowfalls in April 1676 unlike anything ever experi-
enced before (Rethly, 1970:215; Hain G., 1910-13:446). Zsigmond Szaniszlo ended this
run of wet Aprils in 1684 noting that the month passed with dry weather in
Transylvania (Rethly, 1962:385).
The April months in the first third of the 18" century were mostly wet. Janos Adam
Gensel reported for `Sammlung von Natur and Medicin...' that 1719 brought rainy and
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
snowy weather to the Transdanubia region (Rethly, 1970:80; Sammlung, 1719:673).
Transylvania experienced a repeat of 'February' weather in April 1737, as the month
began with snow, later turning rather rainy (Rethly, 1970:148; Apor, 1863:199).
A trend towards drier Aprils began in the mid-18' century and continued until the
mid-19" century. Transylvania saw not a drop of rain in April 1744 (Rethly, 1970:171;
Clauser, 1937:230). Mid-spring was again dry in Transylvania in 1760 (Rethly, 1970:199;
Cserei Gy., 1875:358). In April 1781 'Magyar Hirmondo' (Hungarian Messenger)
reported that the crops in different areas of the Highlands did sprout due to the dry
weather (Rethly, 1970:281; M.H., 19' May). The papers of that period wrote about a
cross-country drought in April 1794 (Rethly, 1970:412; M.H., 2" May). The Historia
Domus of the Franciscan Monastery in Eger stated that April of 1802 was cold and dry
in the Highlands and Plain (Rethly, 1998m:16). The year 1813 brought drought to the
whole country again, wrote the `Hazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign
Reports) (Rethly, 1998m:123; H.K.T., 5' May). April 1825 passed by with dry and warm
weather such that there was shortage of water in different areas of the Plain (Rethly,
1998m:354). Mihcily Kircily recorded in April 1842 that it was dry and cold in
Transylvania (Rethly, 1998m:1013).
According to the Budapest precipitation time series data, the April months in the
mid-19' century were dry, but there was a significant trend towards higher rates of pre-
cipitation in the last third of the century that peaked twice, first in the 1880s and again
in the 1920s. April months became much drier from the middle of the 20th century, and
this trend accelerated, particularly after the 1970s.
4.4.3. April Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
Temperature
The time series of 50-year averages calculated on the basis of the climate history
temperature indexes showed a stable and slight cooling trend from the mid-16'h century
until the second half of the 18' century. The extent of cold April weather in the first
half of the 19' century decreased slightly. Based on the figures of the Budapest instru-
mental time series, the April weather became cooler again from the second half of the
19th century until the mid-20' century when a warming trend began which still prevails
to this day.
Precipitation
The 50-year averages of the climate historical reconstruction time series reveal very
interesting processes in the history of our climate. The diagram of the 50-year averages
from the beginning of the 16' century until the mid-19' century describes a definite
curve easy to follow, reflecting the highest levels of precipitation between the marked
start and end point in the second half of the 17" century. An analysis of the diagram
53
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
index values makes it apparent that the first half of the 16" century and that of the 19'
century were rather dry. Wet Aprils, however, dominated from the turn of the 17" cen-
tury until the end of the 18" century. The Budapest instrument-based records show
that the levels of April precipitation remained constant from the mid-19' century until
the mid-20' century with mid-springs in the second half of the century becoming drier.
Climate Change Characteristics
Cold, rainy or snowy weather determined the April climate characteristics from the
turn of the 17' century until the mid-18' century. The prevalence of cold Aprils contin-
ued in the second half of the 18' century and the first half of the 19' century, while
becoming much drier
The figures of the Budapest instrumental time series show that Aprils became sig-
nificantly colder with approximately constant precipitation levels between the second
half of the 19' century and the first half of the 20' century. The April months with a
warm and dry character became prevalent in the second half of the 20' century.
Figure 19 April temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the
time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram
is based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest
observatory (1780-1996)
2
12,5
1.5-
12
0.5
11.5 I
0
I
1550
L--e—BP-T
11
8
-0.5 —
1. .
10.5
2
1 0
'eon;
54
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
2
es
so
1.5
75
70
65
I
30
-1.5 -
25
-2
20
years
4.5. May
4.5.1. May Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
Due to the scarcity of documented data, it is difficult to precisely determine the
characteristic climate for the months of May in the 16th century, yet the available data
points towards the conclusion that warm and often dry months dominated. The first
documented May temperature anomaly dates from 1507 recording a cold and snowy
late-spring (Rethly, 1962:59). 1541 brought very warm days in the late spring, with cher-
ries already ripe in Transylvania around the middle of the month (Rethly, 1962:71;
Kemeny, 1893:185). In May 1551 the fields were dry in the Highlands due to a drought
and unusual high temperatures (Rethly, 1962:78; Wagner, 1774:11.57). The late spring of
1585 was particularly warm and drought prevailed in Transylvania (Rethly, 1962:99;
Hain D., 1853-54:11).
The May months of the 17th century were mostly cool, although there were a few
cold anomalies. The Bruckner Chronicles reported May of 1635 to be cold and rainy in
the Transdanubia region (Rethly, 1962:155). In 1642, as described in the Payr
Chronicle, cold weather in May continued on into early June in Transdanubia (Rethly,
1962:168; Payr, 1942:30). The Transdanubian Payr Chronicle indicated that May 1663
was 'hopelessly' cold (Rethly, 1962:198; Payr, 1942:57). The severe cold weather in May
of 1675 caused loss of life among people and animals alike in the Highlands, wrote
Gcispar Hain, and the spring planting suffered from frost damage as well (Rethly,
1962:213; Hain G., 1910-13:434).
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Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
In the 1700s, the months of May were not much different than those of the previous
century, being mostly cool despite some warm anomalies. According to Andreas Loew's
weather observations, warm and thy weather prevailed in Transdanubia in 1703
(Rethly, 1970:32; Sydenham, 1769:239). The first cold anomaly of the 18th century was
recorded in May 1707 when Andreas Loew wrote in his meteorological diary that main-
ly cold, cloudy and rainy weather prevailed in Transdanubia (Rethly, 1970:41;
Sydenham, 1769:323). In 1711 Janos Adcim Gensel reported it was unusually hot at the
end of spring in the Highlands (Rethly, 1970:55; Sydenham, 239). The sudden cold and
snow in May 1723 killed numerous fruit trees in Transylvania (Rethly, 1970:99;
Vascirhelyi, 1948:143), and Gyorgy Buchholtz noted that there was snowing and even
blizzards at the end of May in the Highlands (Rethly, 1970:99; Sammlung, 1723:516).
May 1726 was, on the other hand, hot and dry, also noted by Gyorgy Buchholtz (Rethly,
1970:117; Sammlung, 1723:571). The next temperature anomaly recorded in May was
in 1797 when Samuel Benko wrote that the weather of late spring was dry and the heat
was stifling (Rethly, 1970:533).
The May months of the first half of the 19th century exhibited varying weather pat-
terns. May 1826 passed with unpleasantly cool and rainy days, wrote the Pest-Buda
correspondent for `Hazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports)
(Rethly, 1998m:368; H.K.T., 31" May). The writers of Pressburger Zeitung' reported
May of 1829 to be cold and rainy across the country (Rethly, 1998m:408; P.Z., 9'h June).
While in 1830 it was 'broiling hot', stated the `Hazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local
and Foreign Reports) (Rethly, 1998m:438; H.KT., 26'h May). In 1833 May was very
warm and dry again, and it was reported that crops in the Highlands suffered consider-
able damage due to the drought (Rethly, 1998m:470). The correspondents from the
Plain and Highlands for `flazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports)
wrote that May of 1836 brought winter-like weather with regular frosts, and there was
even a snowfall in the middle of the month, all of which caused serious damage to the
spring crops, vineyards and fruit trees (Rethly, 1998m:512; H.K.T., 21" May).
A review of the mean temperatures by decade using the Budapest temperature time
series show that the warm period of the first half of the 19"' century was followed by
cooler decades after the 1870s. From the second half of the 19th century until the pre-
sent day the weather was cold in the decades of the 1910s and the 1960s, as it was in
the 1870s as mentioned earlier, while the late spring was mild in the 1880s, 1920-40s
and 1970-90s.
56
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 20 May temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades from the
16" century until today. The first diagram ( 1500-1850) is based on the time
series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram is
based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest obser-
vatory (1780-1996)
3
20
19
18
17
H-1"
—4— BP-T
16
15
-2
14
-3
13
year.
•earn
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
4.5.2. May Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
The few May months for which data exists from the 16" century were mainly
remarkable for their dry character. In 1532 Gaspar Hain recorded in his notes that
there was not a drop of rain in the Highlands for 12 weeks between the 24' of March
and the 11" of June, the plants stopped growing due to the drought, and the herds had
neither grass nor water (Rethly, 1962:67; Hain G., 1910-13:53). There was drought
again in the Highlands in May 1551, scorching the spring crops and the grass (Rethly,
1962:78; Wagner, 1774:11.57). There is information in the record concerning the
drought in Transylvania in 1585, when dry weather from early May until the end of
June stunted the growth of the corn crop, limiting it to a height of only one foot (32
cm) (Rethly, 1962:99; Hain D., 1853-54:11; Bielz, 1862-63:20).
Precipitation in May during the 17 6 century was fairly balanced, with a slight precip-
itation surplus in the middle of the century, but only negative anomalies are found in
the reference sources. Transylvania was ravaged by a drought in May of 1634 (Rethly,
1962:153; Krauss, 1862:117). A year later, in 1835 the Bruckner Chronicle reported a
cold and rainy late spring in Transdanubia (Rethly, 1962:155). Gyorgy Dobronoki wrote
that the Highlands saw no rain at all in May of 1636, causing wells and rivers to run
dry, and in early June, the gravity of the situation was reflected by the fact that proces-
sions were held to ask for rain (Rethly, 1962:273). Transylvanian crops sown that spring
suffered considerable damage due to the very dry weather in May 1640 (Rethly,
1962:162). Gcispcir Hain wrote in his chronicle that settlements in the Highlands had to
struggle with water shortages in May (and June) 1682, as wells and streams went dry,
rendering mills inoperable as well (Rethly, 1962:225; Hain G., 1910-13:491).
The majority of the May months in the first half of the 18th century were wet,
although there were a few exceptions. Gyorgy Buchholtz wrote in 1700 that the weather
in the Highlands remained rainy from Easter (Easter Monday was on April 11th) until
September which caused serious damage to crops (Rethly, 1962:262). Dr. Loew also
reported that Transdanubia had unpleasantly cold weather in May 1705 (Rethly,
1970:36; Sydenham, 1769:312). Two years later in 1707 the same period was cool again
and unusually rainy, according to Andreas Loew (Rethly, 1970:41; Sydenham, 1769:323).
Janos Adam Gensel wrote that the country had flood-like spates in May 1712 due to
the rainy weather (Rethly, 1970:57; Sydenham, 1769:241). May 1726 was dry in the
Highlands, as noted by Janos Adam Reimann (Rethly, 1970:117; Sammlung, 1726:534).
Gyorgy Buchholtz reported in the paper Nachrichten ...' published in Erfurt a report
about a dry late spring in 1727 in the Highlands (Rethly, 1970:123; Nachrichten,
1727:297). It was also Gyorgy Buchholtz who wrote about the weather in May 1735,
stating that there was a high volume of rainfall, with continuous precipitation over a six
week period causing spates in the Highlands, washing away bridges, mills and houses
(Rethly, 1970:145). The Bruckner Chronicle reported a very rainy May in Transdanubia
in 1745 (Rethly, 1970:174).
The late-spring weather turned much drier in the second half of the 18"' century,
becoming most remarkable in the first decade of the 19" century. Transylvania experi-
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
enced a cool and dry May in 1760, when recently sown crops again suffered consider-
able damage due to the drought conditions (Rethly, 1970:199; Cserei Gy., 1875:358),
while the same month in 1797 was very hot and thy in the Highlands, wrote Samuel
Benko in his meteorological notes (Rethly, 1970:533). According to the Historia Domus
of the Franciscan Monastery in Kecskemet, the month of May in the year 1807 was
very dry on the Plain (Rethly, 1998m:55). A year later, in 1808 the `Hazai es Killfoldi
Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) stated that the plants in the fields of the
Plain did not exhibit any growth due to the drought conditions late that Spring (Rethly,
1998m:63; H.K.T., P' June). May of 1811 was warm and dry in the Highlands (Rethly,
1998m:103). Father Istvan Debreczeni, a Calvinist pastor noted in his diary that the
weather in the Plain was very dry in 1822 (Rethly, 1998m:876), while three years later,
in May 1825 it became so dry that there was a shortage of water in several areas of the
Plain (Rethly, 1998m:353).
Late spring precipitation in the second quarter of the 19th century was more bal-
anced, with anomalies of both extremes. The Pest-Buda correspondent for `Hazai es
Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) wrote that May 1826 brought main-
ly cool, unpleasant weather along with constant rains (Rethly, 1998m:368; H.K.T.,
May). The correspondent from the Highlands for Pressburger Zeitung' reported a
cold and rainy May in 1829 (Rethly, 1998m:408; P.Z., 9th June), while in 1833 the `Hazai
es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) stated that there was not a drop
of rain, so the recently sown crops could not grow (Rethly, 1998m:470; H.K.T., 26th
May). Various papers of the period reported that constant rains and extensive floods
hit the country in May 1837 (Rethly, 1998m:541; E.H., 6'h June; H.K.T., 7'h June). `Hazai
es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) published a report stating that
each region of the country suffered from spates in the late spring of 1839 as a result of
constant rains, and witches were accused of causing the calamities (Rethly, 1998m:582;
H.K.T., 3" July). Mihaly Kircily, a Calvinist pastor wrote that Transylvania experienced a
very dry May in 1841 and the drought was such that it limited plant growth (Rethly,
1998m:981). The correspondents of `Nemzeti Ujsag' (National Paper) reported that
May 1845 was very rainy across the country, with floodwaters covering agricultural
fields over a very large area (Rethly, 1998m:671; N.O. 3' June). The year 1846 brought
very dry weather to Transylvania, reported the `Erdelyi Hirmondo' (Transylvania
Messenger) (Rethly, 1998m:684; E.H., 11'h June).
A review of the mean precipitation rates (by decade) as represented by the
Budapest precipitation time series for May reveals a very unstable distribution. Ranges
of fluctuation reach as high as 40 mm, which is quite remarkable when one takes into
account the fact that the precipitation average for May was 68 mm. The extreme values
of the May temperature 'curve' can be summarized as follows: wet 1850s, dry 1860s,
wet 1890s, dry 1920s, very wet 1930s, dry 1960s, and moderately wet 1980s.
59
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
4.5.3. May Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
Temperature
A review of the 50-year temperature averages reveals that the months of May in the
16" century were mostly mild, but there was a significant cooling trend in the first half
of the 17" century. Mays continued to remain cool in the second half of the 17'h centu-
ry, but not so cool as in the first half. This characteristic of slightly cool May months
continued until the mid-19" century. The 50-year May temperature averages calculat-
ed using time series produced from the Budapest instrument observation data show a
cooling trend from the mid-19'h century until the mid-20'h century when the situation
reversed and in the second half of our century a slight warming trend has prevailed.
Precipitation
A graph based on the 50-year precipitation averages for May calculated using his-
torical climate reconstruction methods is largely similar to that for April, but the dura-
tion and the volume of the precipitation surplus in May is significantly less than that of
April. May weather was slightly dry until the mid-17"' century, turning wet in the sec-
ond half of the 17' century and even more so in the first half of the 18" century.
Precipitation in the late spring during the second half of the 18" century and the first
half of the 19" century was balanced. The 50-year average calculations based on pre-
cipitation time series from Budapest instrument-based observations show that the pre-
cipitation distribution remained balanced from the mid-19" century until the 20'h
century. In the second half of the 20'h century there is a significant trend towards dry
weather.
Climate Change Characteristics
An assumption based on the sparse data available, and partly in spite of that fact, is
that the months of May were mostly warm and dry in the 16' century, while they
turned rather cool and wet from the beginning of the 17'h century until the mid-18"
century. This characteristic cool climate prevailed until the mid-19' century, while late
spring precipitation was fairly balanced throughout the period.
The time series derived from the instrument-based observations in Budapest show
that May temperatures and precipitation rates varied in opposition to one another.
During the period of decreased temperatures lasting until the middle of the 20" centu-
ry, precipitation rates increased slightly, and when temperatures moderated in the sec-
ond half of our century, precipitation rates decreased to produce a significant dry
trend.
60
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 21 May temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades from the
16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the time
series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram is
based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest obser-
vatory (1780-1996)
2
19
- 18.5
1 —
— 18
— 17.5
— 17
H-T
16.5
—o— BP-T
— 16
— 15.5
-1 -
15
-1.5 —
- 14.5
-2
14
years
2
90
1.5
— 80
0.5
—
I
--e— H-P
1550
1650
1700
1750
1900
1950
L- • - 8 P P
-0.5
—60
— 50
-1.5
-2
years
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
4.6. June
4.6.1. June Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
Based on the meager quantity of records available, it is to be presumed that the
months of June in the middle and the second half of the 16th century were mostly
warm. There were two positive anomalies entered in the records. June was extremely
warm and dry in 1551 according to the records from the Highlands (Rethly, 1962:78;
Wagner, 1774:11.57), while Transylvania had a hot and dry early summer in 1585
(Rethly, 1962:99; Hain D., 1853-54:11). The sequence of warm Junes was interrupted in
the year 1606 with cold weather unlike anything previously experienced. It even
snowed in Transylvania and the sudden frosts damaged corn, recently planted crops,
and trees in both gardens and forests (Rethly, 1962:123; Bethlen F, 1782-93:VI.465;
Bielz, 1862-63:32).
June months exhibiting extreme temperatures were very rare in the 17' century,
apart from the cold anomaly recorded in 1606 referred to above, we have knowledge of
only one other anomaly in this season. Both the Bruckner and Payr Chronicles report-
ed that June of 1619 was hot and dry in Transdanubia (Rethly, 1962:140; Payr, 1942:14).
The temperature averages of the 18" century show balanced temperatures in June,
although that century saw several early summers with extreme weather. Positive tem-
perature anomalies were recorded rather in the first half, while negative ones appear
mainly in the second half of the 18' century. Andreas Loew wrote in his diary that in
June of 1703 it was so warm that the vine-blossoms were gone in Transdanubia by the
middle of the month (Rethly, 1970:32; Sydenham, 1769:299). Dr. Loew reported anoth-
er very hot early summer four years later in 1707 in Transdanubia (Rethly, 1970:41;
Sydenham, 1769:323). Transylvania experienced extremely dry weather in June of 1710
(Rethly, 1970:51; Cserei M,1852:441). The sequence of hot June months continued in
Transdanubia in 1712, and again Andreas Loew recorded the extreme heat (Rethly,
1970:57; Sydenham, 1769:242). According to the meteorological records of Istvan Pal
Bcicsmegyei, extremely hot and dry weather prevailed in the Highlands in June of 1726
(Rethly, 1970:117; Sammlung, 1726:702). Diaries from 1755 reflect that grazing land in
Transylvania was scorched due to the June heat and drought (Rethly, 1970:192;
Vcisarhelyi, 1948:236). In Transylvania in 1767 June was as cold as November (Rethly,
1970:225; Cserei Gy., 1875:421). Father Istvan Kortvelyesi Jr. reported in his diary that
June weather in 1777 was cold and rainy (Rethly, 1970:505).
The months of June in the first half of the 19" century were stable with respect to
average temperatures when compared with previous centuries and few temperature
anomalies were noted. The early summer of 1817 was very warm in the Highlands
(Rethly, 1998m:254). June of 1821 was cool and rainy in Transylvania according to
`Hazai es Killfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) (Rethly, 1998m:300;
H.K.T., 3rd October). Father Istvan Debreczeni entered in his diary that the cold weather
in June 1832 caused serious damage to crops in the Plain (Rethly, 1998m:884). The hot
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
and dry weather of early summer in 1833 caused only slightly less damage to the crops
of the Highlands as well, again according to `Hazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and
Foreign Reports) (Nthly, 1998m:471; H.K.T., 13th July. The papers reported that June
of 1834 brought heat and drought again (Nthly, 1998m:485; H.K.T., 5 1" July). In the
early summer of 1839 the heat and countrywide drought caused serious damage to
crops as reported in the `Hazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports)
(Nthly, 1998m:584; H.K.T., 13'h July).
According to the 100-year averages of Budapest temperature data, the weather dur-
ing June months in the first and second third of the 19'h century was mainly warm. The
stable warm weather for 30 years, from the 1830s until the 1860s, deserves special
attention. There was a significant cooling trend at the turn of the 20th century that bot-
tomed out during the 1920s. During the second third of the 20'h century there was a
slight warming trend, but with significant deviation, reaching relative peaks in the
1930s and 1950s. In the 1980s, June months turned cooler again.
Figure 22 June temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades from the
16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the time
series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram is
based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest obser-
vatory (1780-1996)
21.5
21
20.5
--0— H-T
19.5
19
18.5
18
17.5
-3
17
Years
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
95
2
85
75
0
1 —M—H-P
—*-8P-CS
65
55
45
years
4.6.2. June Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
The scarcity of documentary sources for the 16th century prevents the determination
of clear conclusions regarding variations in climate trends. Transylvanian records indi-
cate that it rained nearly every day in June of 1508 (Nthly, 1962:60; Bielz, 1862-63:6).
The early summer of 1549 brought long-lasting drought to Transylvania (Bethly,
1962:76; Bielz, 1862-63:11). A drought which started early in May of 1551 continued in
the Highlands into June, scorching sprouting crops and drying the fields (Rahly,
1962:78; Wagner, 1774:11.57). There was not a drop of rain in Transylvania in June of
1585, which significantly hindered corn growth (Nthly, 1962:99; Hain D., 1853-54:11).
There were two early summers that experienced drought at the beginning of the 17"
century. The Fauth Chronicle wrote that June of 1616 was so dry that wells ran dry in
Transdanubia (Rathly, 1962:136). Both the Bruckner and Payr Chronicles reported in
1619 that the corn could not grow in Transdanubia due to a major drought (Nthly,
1962:140; Payr, 1942:14). The months of June turned wet after the decade of 1610
through the 1680s. It rained continuously from the 9th through the 12'h of June 1658
according to the Payr Chronicle, preventing farmers from working their fields in
Transdanubia, and the vineyards became overgrown with weeds (Nthly, 1962:188;
Payr, 1942:51). The same region had similar rainy weather in June of 1663, which again
impeded agricultural work (Nthly, 1962:198; Payr, 1942:57). The Payr Chronicle
reported that Transdanubia had a very dry June in 1666 (Nthly, 1962:202; Payr,
1942:63). Transylvanian records stated that the early summer of 1667 was unusually
wet (Nthly, 1962:203; Hain D., 1853-54:21).
The rates of June precipitation became more balanced at the turn of the 18'h century
with regard to 100-year averages, and there was an increase in both positive and nega-
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
tive precipitation anomalies as well. In June of 1681 there was no grass to cut in the
Plain due to the drought (Rethly, 1962:224; Takacs, 1910:63). June 1682 also brought
drought, and Gcispcir Hain reported water-shortages in the settlements of the
Highlands, and mills going on tank-holidays' as well (Rethly, 1962:225; Hain G., 1910-
13:491). Transylvania received a lot of rain in the early summer of 1689, wrote
Zsigmond Szaniszl6, which ruined the hay harvest (Rethly, 1962:344). Drought returned
to Transylvania in June of 1690 (Rethly, 1962:238; Cserei M, 1893:147), and a year
later, in June of 1691 it rained continuously in this region for four weeks, causing rivers
to flood and roads to be difficult to travel due to mud (Rethly, 1962:241; Cserei M,
1893:152). Andreas Loew wrote in his diary that Transdanubia saw fine and rain-free
weather in June of 1704 (Rethly, 1970:34; Sydenham, 1763:305). The early summer of
1708 passed without a single rain-free day in Transdanubia after the 8th of June report-
ed Dr. Loew among his meteorological observations (Rethly, 1970:44; Sydenham,
1763:334). Transylvania experienced drought in June of 1710 to a degree never before
experienced there, causing major damage to crops and vegetation (Rethly, 1970:51;
Cserei M, 1852:441). Jcinos Adam Reimann wrote that the Highlands had an extremely
dry June in 1724, causing a scarcity of hay (Rethly, 1962:103; Sammlung, 1724:613), and
this was the case again in the Highlands two years later, in June of 1726 causing signifi-
cant damage to crops (Rethly, 1970:117; Sammlung, 1726:702).
From the 1730s onwards June became wet again, and this trend prevailed overall,
but witirwide variations, until the end of the 18" century. Janos Adam Reimann record-
ed that June of 1730 was cool and rainy in the Highlands (Rethly, 1970:136;
Nachrichten, 1730:919). Ten years later, in June 1740 it rained so much that the rivers
in the Highlands and Transylvania flooded (Rethly, 1970:158; Dong6, 1900:IV.53).
However, June of 1746 was dry in Transylvania, in the Plain and in Transdanubia
(Rethly, 1970:175; Apor, 1863:323). The heat was so severe in the early summer of 1755
that early crops were scorched in the field in Transylvania (Rethly, 1970:192; Vciscirhelyi,
1948:236). This region had floods again in 1767 due to June rains (Rethly, 1970:225;
Cserei Gy.,1875:421). Father Istvan KOrtvelyesi Jr., a Calvinist pastor, wrote that the
Highlands experienced rainy weather throughout June of 1771 (Rethly, 1970:503). It
was also KOrtvelyesi Jr. who recorded that June of 1777 brought frequent rains to the
Highlands (Rethly, 1970:505). The Pressburger Zeitung' also reported heavy rains in
the same region in June 1781, bringing floods that washed away the cut hay (Rethly,
1970:282; P.Z., 8th August). Early summer was dry again a year later, in 1782 according
to the correspondents from the Plain and Highlands for 'Magyar Hirmondo'
(Hungarian Messenger) (Rethly, 1970:294; M.H., 6th July). Samuel Benk6 observed
rains and showers in June of 1786 (Rethly, 1970:527).
The dominance of rainy June months decreased significantly in the first half of the
19th century, but there were far more anomalies recorded than ever before. The
Historia Domus of the Franciscan Monastery in Eger tells us of rains in June 1801 that
caused damage to corn and vineyards (Rethly, 1998m:7). It rained for four weeks in
Transdanubia and in the Highlands, wrote Pressburger Zeitung' in June 1803, and the
water level of the Danube was higher on the 21" of June than during the spring melt
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(Rethly, 1998m:24; P.Z., 24'h June). Early summer of 1811 was very dry, according to
the Pest-Buda correspondent of Pressburger Zeitung', impeding crop growth (Rethly,
1998m:99; P.Z. 22" June). An unknown diarist wrote that the Highlands experienced a
cool and wet June in 1814 (Rethly, 1998m:172). The Buda observatory recorded fine,
dry weather in the meteorological diary for June of 1818 (Rethly, 1998m:264; H.K.T.,
11th July) but the same month two years later in 1820 was cool and rainy in the
Highlands (Rethly, 1998m:294). The `Hazai es Killfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and
Foreign Reports) reported in June of 1821 that constant rains destroyed the seedlings
in the gardens and fields (Rethly, 1998m:300; H.K.T., 3" October). Father Istvan
Debreczeni, however, recorded that in the early summer of 1822 the Plain saw no rain
at all (Rethly, 1998m:876). Work in the fields suffered delays in Transylvania in June
1831 due to rain according to `Hazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign
Reports) (Rethly, 1998m:447; H.K.T., 20'h July). Transylvania experienced a very dry
June in 1833 wrote the papers of that time, with hay drying out in the fields and farm-
ers fearing they would be unable to feed live-stock during following winter (Rethly,
1998m:471; H.K.T., 13'h July). The dry weather of the previous year returned to
Transylvania, the Plain and Transdanubia in early summer of 1834 (Rethly, 1998m:485;
H.K.T., 5th July). June in 1836 was again dry and Erdelyi Hirlap' (Transylvanian
News) reported that the fields in the Plain were totally scorched (Rethly, 1998m:515;
E.H., 23" July). The year 1837 finally brought a wet June, but the constant rains
destroyed the belt of hay in the Plain, the hay turning black in the fields (Rethly,
1998m:542; H.K.T., 1° July). Two years later, June 1839 was so dry, wrote Ilazai es
Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports), that there were one-inch-deep
rents in the soil of the Plain (Rethly, 1998m:585; H.K.T., 13'h July). The Historia Domus
of the Franciscan Monastery in Jaszbereny recorded that late spring and early summer
of 1846 brought very dry weather to the Plain (Rethly, 1998m:685).
The 100-year averages of the Budapest precipitation time series show that June pre-
cipitation rates varied greatly. In the 19'h century, the 1860s were extremely dry, while
precipitation levels increased significantly in the last third of the century. The first
decade of the 20th century brought extreme drought but was followed by a long period
of greatly increased June precipitation levels until it reached the peak of the century in
the 1950s. The months of June in the last third of our century turned somewhat drier.
4.6.3. June Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
Temperature
The time series of 50-year averages calculated on the index values of the historical
climate reconstruction show a cooling trend for three and a half centuries, but except
for the second half of the 18'h century, this occurred within the slightly warmer domain
than the average. The data of the Budapest temperature time series shows that the
drop in average June temperatures continued until the mid-20th century, while the
months of June turned much warmer in the second half of our century.
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Precipitation
According to the few sources of information available, June months of the 16" cen-
tury were rather dry, but it can be stated that early summer was slightly wetter from the
turn of the 17" century until the middle of the 19th century. Two peaks can be marked
within this wet period, one in the second half of the 17' century, and another in the
second half of the 18' century. The Budapest documentary precipitation time series
shows a drying trend between the second half of the 19th century and the first half of
the 20' century, while the months of June became wetter again in the second half of
our century.
Climate Change Characteristics
Four distinct climate types can be distinguished for June months within the five hun-
dred years analyzed here. The months of June in the 16" century were mostly warm
and dry. The characteristic climate from the turn of the 17th century until the mid-18th
century was warm but wet. June weather from the second half of the 18th century until
the middle of the 19th century was slightly cooler and wetter than the overall average.
The time series derived from instrument-based observations in Budapest show that
June temperatures and precipitation rates varied in unison with each other. The period
of lower temperatures that lasted until the mid-20th century saw lower precipitation
rates as well, while the second half of the century brought not only higher tempera-
tures, but higher precipitation levels as well.
Figure 23 June temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades from the
16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the time
series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram is
based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest obser-
vatory (1780-1996)
2
22
21.5
1.5
21
20.5
0.5
20
1
0
19.5
8
—6— EAT
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1850
1900
1950
2000
19
-0Z
18.5
18
-1.5
17.5
2
17
years
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6 --I—H-P
6 —*-13P-P I
1850
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
year.
4.7. July
4.7.1. July Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
The July temperature indexes of the historical climate reconstruction show that the
July mean temperature was a bit warmer than the average except for a few exceptions,
and that most of the anomalies were positive ones.
In 1551 the Highlands experienced an extreme heat and drought starting from the
feast of Tidal) and Jakab' (the of May) until that of 'Maria Magdolna' (the 22nd of
July) which scorched crops in the fields (Rethly, 1962:78; Wagner, 1774:11.57). Istvcinfi's
chronicle reads that the weather was again very warm in the Highlands (Rethly,
1962:82; Istvcinfi, 1867-71:423).
The hot and dry weather of July 1607 caused forest-fires in Transdanubia, and inter-
fered with the growth of the hay as well (Rethly, 1962:125). July 1683 brought broiling
summer heat to the Highlands (Rethly, 1962:227; Babotsay, 1901:11). Andreas Loew
wrote that it was so warm in July of 1688 in the Highlands that the people felt as if the
'sky was on fire' (Rethly, 1962:236; Sydenham, 1763:288).
According to Loew's notes from 1701, Transdanubia had a very warm mid-summer
that year (Rethly, 1970:27; Sydenham, 1763:297). July of 1706 was extremely hot in
Transdanubia, it did not cool off at night either, wrote Loew (Rethly, 1970:38;
Sydenham, 1763:318). There are records available about the heat and dry weather in
Transylvania in 1710 (Rethly, 1970:51; Cserei M, 1852:441). Loew's meteorological
observations prove that the series of hot midsummers continued in July of 1712
(Rethly, 1970:57; Sydenham, 1763:242). The first cold anomaly dates from July of 1761
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
as documented in the Transylvanian records (MO?, 1970:200; Cserei Gy., 1875:373). It
was also noted in Transylvanian diaries that July 1763 was hot and dry (Rethly,
1970:205; Cserei Gy., 1875:375). The 'Pressburger Zeitung' reported that July of 1778
was so hot that the farmers could work only at night in the Plain (Rethly, 1970:252-254;
P.Z., 25'h and 29'h July, 5'h August). The middle of the summer in 1782 was again
extremely warm and 'Magyar Hirmondo' (Hungarian Messenger) reported that the
temperature in the Highlands reached as high as 33,8 °C (Rethly, 1970:295; M.H., 31
July and 7'h September). July of 1783 was not only hot, but the correspondents of
Pressburger Zeitung' from Transylvania wrote about an unusual dry fog probably
caused by volcanic dust in the atmosphere after the eruption of the Hekla volcano in
Iceland (Rethly, 1970:304; 30'h July). The Highlands experienced heat and drought in
July 1788 according to the 'Pressburger Zeitung', and there were forest-fires in various
places (Rethly, 1970:353; P.Z., 2" August). Mid-summer of 1792 passed with very warm
weather in the Highlands, noted Samuel Benko in his diary (Rethly, 1970:529). A year
later it was again broiling hot in the Highlands (Rethly, 1970:530). The last July tem-
perature anomaly of the 18th century was a positive one in 1797 when the Buda-corre-
spondent of 'Magyar Kurie (Hungarian Courier) wrote that wells ran dry and grazing
lands were scorched due to the hot, dry weather (Rethly, 1970:440; M.K., 28'h July).
'Vereinigte Pester and Ofner Zeitung' reported in July 1802 that it was hard to
stand the heat in the Plain (Rethly, 1998m:18; V.O.P.Z., in August). Mid-summer of
1811 brought heat and drought to the Highlands reported the 'Pressburger Zeitung'
(Rethly, 1998m:99; P.Z., 2" August). An unknown diarist recorded that Transdanubia
experienced a lengthy spell of hot weather in July 1817 (Rethly, 1998m:254). Mihaly
Kiraly, a Calvinist pastor, recorded that July 1830 brought hot, alternately dry and
stormy weather to Transylvania (Rethly, 1998m:970). Transdanubia and the Plain had a
hot, dry mid-summer in 1834 wrote the Buda-correspondent for 'Hazai es Kiilfoldi
Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) (Rethly, 1998m:485; H.K.T., 13th August)..
July of 1839 was again reported by newspapers to be hot and dry in Transdanubia
(Rethly, 1998m:591; H.K.T., 17'h August). Gabor Ecsedy, another Calvinist pastor noted
in his diary that July of 1841 was hotter than he had ever experienced before with tem-
peratures occasionally reaching as high as 45 °C (Rethly, 1998m:1146).
According to the averages of the Budapest temperature time series over the cen-
turies, midsummer of the first two thirds of thel9th century brought mostly warm
weather. July turned cooler in the last third of the 19 6 century, and in the first decades
of the 20th century, with the 1910's being particularly cold. The July months warmed up
again in the middle third of the 20'h century, with the years of the 1930s and 1950s out-
standingly warm. Mid-summer became cooler again in the 1960s and 1970s, while a sig-
nificant warming trend started in the 1980s and continues until today.
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Figure 24 July temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades from the
16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the time
series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram is
based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest obser-
vatory (1780-1996)
years
years
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4.7.2. July Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
The July precipitation time series of the historical climate reconstruction show a sta-
ble precipitation surplus from the beginning of the 16th century until the mid-19th centu-
ry, but despite the positive precipitation balance, there were several anomalies towards
both extremes.
It rained without interruption for the duration of July 1508, according to
Transylvanian Saxon sources (Rethly, 1962:60; Bielz, 1862-63:6). Turkish historians
wrote in 1532 that the wet July and the spates of the Transdanubian rivers caused a lot
of problems for troops moving against Vienna (Rethly, 1962:67; Thiry, 1893:1.353). The
dry weather that started in the spring of 1549 remained through mid-summer as well
and Transylvanian Saxon sources reported that many wells and rivers dried up, and
that there were forest-fires due to the drought (Rethly, 1962:76; Hain D.1853-54:8).
The drought that started in May of 1551 endured until the end of July causing serious
damage to crops (Rethly, 1962:78; Wagner, 1774:11.57). Lestdr Gyulafy recorded in July
1552 that the siege of the royal troops at Cluj (H-Kolozsvar) failed due to the constant
rain (Rethly, 1962:78; Gyulafy, 1893:116). The wet July of 1566 in the Plain prevented
the Turkish siege at the fortress of Gyula from succeeding (Rethly, 1962:88; Istvcinfi,
1867-71:527). Sebestyen Borsos wrote in his chronicle that there was not a drop of rain
in July of 1580 in Transylvania (Rethly, 1962:96; Borsos, 1855:25).
Mid-summer of 1607 was hot and dry, according to the Bruckner Chronicle, causing
forest-fires and severe crop damage in Transdanubia (MN)), 1962:125). Gaspar Hain
wrote that July 1628 brought unusually wet weather to the Highlands, causing rivers to
flood resulting in major material damages (Rethly, 1962:148; Hain G., 1910-13:185),
and Prince Miklos Eszterhcizy wrote in his letter from Transdanubia that it was impossi-
ble to run on the muddy and flooded roads (Rethly, 1962:148; Eszterhcizy, 1909:41).
Ambrus Keczer's notes indicate that mid-summer of 1665 was very wet in the
Highlands, with rainy weather and the resulting floods delaying agricultural work
(Reddy, 1962:285). A year later, July of 1666 brought totally different weather and the
Payr Chronicle reported that the whole month passed without any rain at all (Rethly,
1962:202; Payr, 1942:63). Saxon sources from Transylvania state that the weather in
July 1667 turned wet again, with rain falling throughout the month, bringing floods
that prevented the harvesting of the crops (Rethly, 1962:203; Hain D., 1853-54:21). A
year later July of 1668 again brought long periods of rain and floods in Transylvania
(Rethly, 1962:205; Bielz, 1862-63:71). Mid-Summer of 1681 was again very dry, and
there were no grasses at all to cut in the Plain (Rethly, 1962:224; Takcics, 1910:63).
Andreas Loew's weather observations show that Transdanubia had a very hot and dry
July in 1688 (Rethly, 1962:236; Sydenham, 1763:236). Saxon sources from Transylvania
reported that it rained continuously in July of 1698 causing floods (Rethly, 1962:256;
Bielz, 1862-63:57).
Transylvania saw rain every day in July of 1705, causing floods that washed away
bridges (Rethly, 1970:35; Bielz, 1862-63:57). Five years later, in 1710 the people of
Transylvania experienced a drought the likes of which they had never seen before
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(Rethly, 1970:51; Cserei M.,1893:441). There was also a great drought in July of 1728,
noted by Gyiitgy Buchholtz in his meteorological diary, which led to forest-fires in the
Highlands, while the parched fields resulted in the deaths of many animals in the Plain
(Rethly, 1970:129; Nachrichten, 1728:1197,1326). There are documentary sources
referring to drought in Transylvania in July of 1742 (Rethly, 1970:165; Clauser,
1937:230). Transylvania had drought again in 1759, which caused a shortage of hay
(Rethly, 1970:197; Cserei Gy., 1875:356). Transylvanian reports say that July of 1763
brought hot and dry weather (Rethly, 1970:205; Cserei Gy., 1875:375). According to
Samuel Benko's weather records, mid-summer of 1782 went by with hot dry weather
(Rethly, 1970:525). The Buda correspondent of 'Magyar Kurir' (Hungarian Courier)
reported that July 1797 brought heat and drought, most wells dried up, and the fields
were scorched dry by the heat (Rethly, 1970:440; M.K, 28th July).
The Historia Domus of the Franciscan Monastery in Eger recorded that the
Highlands experienced constant rain in July of 1801 causing considerable damage to
crops (Rethly, 1998m:7). The Tressburger Zeitung' reported in July 1811 that the
Highlands had very warm and steady dry weather (Rethly, 1998m:99; P.Z., 2 August).
Early summer was warm and dry in the Highlands in 1817, and there was precipitation
in the form of hail (Rethly, 1998m:254). The Historia Domus of the Franciscan
Monastery in Jaszbereny recorded that the whole summer of 1822, but primarily July,
was so dry in the Plain that the recently planted crops could not produce any harvest
(Rethly, 1998m:320). July of 1825 was extremely wet, with heavy rains causing spates,
reported the Pest-Buda correspondent of `Hazai es KiilfOldi Tudositasok' (Local and
Foreign Reports) (Rethly, 1998m:356; H.K.T., 30'h June). Mid-summer of 1827 was hot
and dry in the Plain according to the Historia Domus of the Franciscan Monastery of
Jaszbereny (Rethly, 1998m:382). The `Hazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and
Foreign Reports) reported that the Highlands received just a little rain in July 1830
(Rethly, 1998m:439; H.KT., 3" August). July 1831 on the other hand was extremely
wet in Transylvania, which delayed the harvest (Rethly, 1998m:447; H.KT., 20'h July).
The Plain experienced uninterrupted rain in the mid-summer of 1833 which hindered
the harvest, noted the `Hazai es KtilfOldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports)
(Rethly, 1998m:472; H.KT., 31" August). July 1834 brought extreme heat and drought
to the Highlands (Rethly, 1998m:486; H.K.T., 23rd July). `Erdelyi Hirado'
(Transylvanian Reports) reported that drought caused considerable suffering in
Transdanubia in July 1836 when the water-mills stopped working and there were rents
in the fields of 5-8 cm wide and 32-64 cm deep (Rethly, 1998m:516; E.H., 30th July). The
`Hazai es KiilfOldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) reported that
Transylvania received constant rain in July of 1837 with rivers flooding in several areas
covering farm land and hay fields (Rethly, 1998m:543; H.K.T., 16th August).
-
Transdanubia had drought-like conditions in July of 1839, which delayed the growth of
the crops on the farms (Rethly, 1998m:587; H.KT., 7'h August). `Nemzeti Ujsag'
(National Paper) reported that Transdanubia and the Highlands had cool and dry
weather in July 1842 (Rethly, 1998m:635; N.U., 16th and 30th July). The Historia Domus
of the Franciscan Monastery in Kecskemet recorded that July of 1846 was so dry that
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
the fields were totally scorched, and the live-stock was driven afield just out of habit
(Rethly, 1998m:687).
The averages of the Budapest precipitation time series by century show extreme
fluctuations. Average rainfall in the first decade of the time series (1840s) was 70,5
mm, while it was only 30,8 mm in the 1980s. The 10-year precipitation averages for July
varied between these values from decade to decade. According to the records particu-
larly dry decades occurred in the 1860s, 1890s, 1930s and the years of the 1980s previ-
ously mentioned. The following decades were, conversely, conspicuously wet: the
1840s, 1870s, 1900s, 1950s and 1960s.
4.7.3. July Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
Temperature
The 50-year averages of the historical climate reconstruction indexes show that the
July months were slightly wanner than the 0-value considered to be the average. The
fairly stable diagram has lower values in the second half of the 17th century, and slightly
higher values in the second half of the 18th century. The combination of the historically
reconstructed data and the Budapest instrumental based data results in a time series
that shows a cooling trend starting at the beginning of the 19' century that lasts until
the middle of the 20th century. In the second half of the 20th century, the months of July
turned slightly warmer.
Precipitation
The combination of the historically reconstructed data and the Budapest instrumen-
tal based data results in a time series that seems to outline a five hundred year process
of July months becoming increasingly dry. Nevertheless this tendency towards drier
weather took place in overall wet circumstances until the end of the 18th century, and
the really dry climatic conditions became dominant only during the first half of the
19th century.
Climate Change Characteristics
The July months from the end of the 16th century until the second half of the 18'
century were mostly warmer and wetter than the average, while the average tempera-
ture remained relatively high in the second half of the 19th century as well, but July
weather became drier.
The data of the Budapest instrument based time series show that both the average
temperature and precipitation dropped until the middle of the 20th century, while the
second half of our century brought a further drop in temperature combined with a rise
in precipitation.
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Figure 25 July temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades from the
16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the time
series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram is
based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest obser-
vatory (1780-1996)
24
23.5
23
22.5
22
E
H-T
21.5
21
20.5
20
19.5
years
2
70
1.5
65
60
0.5
55
0
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1850
1903
e
50
-0.5
45
40
2
35
years
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4.8. August
4.8.1. August Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
The average temperatures of August months over the decades of the 16th century
varied significantly and did not show a stable medium-term trend. There is no knowl-
edge of remarkable temperature anomalies for August during this time period.
August turned warmer from the beginning of the 17'h century until the first decade
of the 18'h century when, coincidentally, the first positive anomalies occurred. Gaspar
Hain wrote in his chronicle that the Highlands had a heat wave in August 1622 (Rethly,
1962:144; Hain G., 1910-13:161). GyOrgy Dobronoki noted that the weather was
extremely warm and dry in the Highlands in August of 1637 (Rethly, 1962:278). The
only negative temperature anomaly of the century was in August of 1641, when Gaspar
Hain recorded that the vegetable crops in the Highlands were destroyed by the cold
weather, that it snowed in the mountains and there were even frosts (Rethly, 1962:164;
Hain G., 1910-13:199). August of 1661 was unusually warm with the constant heat
causing considerable discomfort for the royal troops traveling from the Highlands to
Transylvania (Rethly, 1962:192; Speisser, 1712:520). The Diarium of the Order of
Jesuits in Kasse recorded a very hot late summer in 1678 (Rethly, 1962:364). Andreas
Loew reported that in August of 1701 not only were the days hot in Transdanubia, but
the nights as well (Rethly, 1970:27; Sydenham, 1763:297), while the late summer of
1703 brought a spell of cool weather (Rethly, 1970:32; Sydenham, 1763:301). August of
1705 brought heat again to Transdanubia (Rethly, 1970:36; Sydenham, 1763:312) as did
the following year in 1706 when grapes were already ripe and on sale at the beginning
of August in Transdanubia (Rethly, 1970:38; Sydenham, 1763:318). The century long
trend of warm August months ended with a cold late-summer in 1707, when Andreas
Loew wrote about cool, rainy and unpleasant windy weather (Rethly, 1970:41;
Sydenham, 1763:328-329).
From the 1720s until the 1750s the months of August were mostly free of extremes,
except for 1725 which saw a cool and rainy August. This weather in the Highlands was
recorded by Janos Adam Reimann (Rethly, 1970:111; Sammlung, 1726:i53).
The August temperatures turned warmer again in the last third of the 18'h century,
and the number of positive temperature anomalies increased. Transylvanian sources
reported that August of 1763 was extremely hot and dry (Rethly, 1970:205; Cserei Gy.,
1875:375). 'Magyar Hirmondo' (Hungarian Messenger) noted that August of 1781 was
so hot that the temperatures in the Plain reached as high as 41,2 °C (Rethly, 1970:284;
M.H., 5'h and 29'h September) while other papers noted that the heat in the Plain was
difficult to bear (Rethly, 1970:296). According to 'Magyar Hirmondo' (Hungarian
Messenger), the weather was hot and dry in August of 1782 in the Hungarian Plain
(Rethly, 1970:296; M.H., 7'h September) 'Magyar Hirmondo' (Hungarian Messenger)
reported that the heat and drought of August 1784 (Rethly, 1970:318; M.H., 25'h
September) hit every region of the country. According to 'Ephemerides Budenses', the
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weather was hot and dry in August of 1791 both in Transdanubia and the Plain (Rethly,
1970:383; E.B. 26'h August). August 1807 was recorded as one of the warmest late-sum-
mers of the Buda time series and the Pressburger Zeitung' reported that Transdanubia
experienced a continuous heat wave for the duration of the month (Rethly, 1998m:56;
P.Z., 4th September).
Most of the August months in the first half of the 19'h century were warm with the
most significant warming trend taking place in the 1820s and 1830s. Late summer of
1820 brought extraordinary heat both to the Plain and the Highlands (Rethly,
1998m:294). `Hazai es Kfilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) wrote that
August in 1822 was so hot that the grapes of the Buda area vineyards had ripened by
the middle of the month (Rethly, 1998m:321; H.K.T., 31" August). Mihaly Kircily, a
Calvinist pastor noted that August 1824 brought oppressive heat to Transylvania
(Rethly, 1998m:953). The Pressburger Zeitung' reported that late summer in 1830
brought such hot and dry weather to the Highlands that the grazing lands were
scorched, and the corn crop dried out in the fields (Rethly, 1998m:439; P.Z., 27'h
August). The only negative exception of the temperature anomalies was in August of
1833 when the `flazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) wrote
about cool, rainy weather in the Highlands (Rethly, 1998m:474; H.K.T., 31" August).
Laszlo Zlinszky noted in August 1834 that late summer was again very hot (Rethly,
1998m:936). Gabor Ecsedy, a Calvinist pastor spoke about the weather of August 1838
being unusually cool and clouded in the Plain (Rethly, 1998m:1129). `Hazai es Kii
Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) reported that late summer in 1839 brought
heat and drought never experienced before in Transylvania (Rethly, 1998m:591; H.K.T.,
12th October). It was again Gabor Ecsedy, a Calvinist pastor, who characterized the
weather of August 1841 as unusually warm and dry in the Plain (Rethly, 1998m:1147).
Heat and drought also characterize the weather in Transylvania in the late summer of
1850 (Rethly, 1998m:718; M.H., 25'h September).
According to the 100-year averages of the Budapest temperature time series, the
latter decades of the 18th century brought warm later summers, and this predominantly
warm characteristic of August months continued until the 1870s. Yet August became
significantly cooler by the end of the 19'h century, particularly in the decades of the
1880s, 1910s, 1920s and 1930s. August turned warmer again in the mid-20' century, but
the 1960s brought cooler weather again. A significant warming trend began in the
1970s and continues to this day.
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Figure 26 August temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the
time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram
is based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest
observatory (1780-1996)
23.5
22.5
21.5
—111— H-T
20.5
0
a
19.5
18.5
17,5
years
years
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4.8.2. August Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
While there is a scarcity of source material available from the first half of the 16th
century, the data we do have shows that the August months of that time were wet.
Saxon sources wrote in 1508 that it rained continuously in Transylvania until St.
Bartholomew Day (24 August) (Rethly, 1962:60; Bielz, 1862-63:6). August of 1526 was
remarkably wet also, hindering the movement of troops of Suleyman I through
Transdanubia, then causing the Csele Stream to flood and claim the life of the
Hungarian king, Lajos II who drowned dressed in heavy armour. Istvcinfi describes this
unfortunate incident in detail in his chronicle (Rethly, 1960:155; Istvcinfi, 1867-71:155).
Turkish sources show that the Turkish army moving against Vienna, but bivouacked at
the fortress of Koszeg in Transdanubia, suffered a lot due to the wet late summer of
1532 (Rethly, 1962:67; Thaty, 1893:1.354).
There are too few sources available to properly evaluate the climate history in the
second half of the 16th century. One single anomaly was recorded as far as we know,
when Sebestyen Borsos wrote in his chronicle that there was not a single drop of rain in
Transylvania until St. Bartholomew's day (24 August) in 1580 (Rethly, 1962:96; Borsos,
1855:25).
The months of August were mostly wet in the first two thirds of the 17'h century.
Saxon sources in the Highlands reported drought conditions in August of 1633 (Rethly,
1962:153; Wagner, 1774:11.68). Gyiirgy Dobronoki wrote in this diary that the Highlands
had an unusually warm and dry August in 1637 (Rethly, 1962:278). Continuous rains hit
Transdanubia in August 1647, wrote the Payr Chronicle (Rethly, 1962:177; Payr,
1942:35), and later, in 1652, it reported that Transdanubia saw no rain at all in the late
summer and early autumn (Rethly, 1962:181; Payr, 1942:41). Dissimilarly, August in the
year 1657 brought heavy rains again to Transdanubia and resulted in blue mold rot in
the vineyards in many areas (Rethly, 1962:186; Payr, 1942:50-51). It was Gaspar Hain
who commented that the rains in August of 1659 delayed the harvest in the Highlands
(Rethly, 1962:188; Hain G., 1910-13:281). The late summer of 1665 passed with exten-
sive rains in the Highlands causing floods (Rethly, 1962:201; Guzich, 1889:447). Saxon
sources from Transylvania wrote in 1667 that rains since the end of June caused floods
(Rethly, 1962:204; Bielz, 1862-63:54; Hain D., 1853-54:21), and the rain in August of
1675 caused unprecedented flooding in Transylvania and serious damage to crops
(Rethly, 1962:213; Szekely Archives, 1934:353).
Late-summer weather became much drier at the turn of the 18'h century. August of
1683 brought stable dry weather to Transylvania, wrote Zsigmond Szaniszlo (Rethly,
1962:385), while Andreas Loew recorded heat and drought conditions in Transdanubia
for the late summer of 1701 (Rethly, 1970:27; Sydenham, 1763:297).
August months during the first two thirds of the 18'h century were also mostly wet.
Late summer of 1712 was mostly rainy in Transdanubia (Rethly, 1970:57; Sydenham,
1763:242). Istvan Pal Bacsmegyei reported in 1720 that it was raining in the Highlands
for the whole month of August except for three days, and that the high levels of precip-
itation caused the corn 'to germinate on the land' (i.e. without being planted) (Rethly,
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1970:86; Sammlung, 1720:140). Jcinos Adam Reimann wrote about cool and rainy
weather in the Highlands in August 1725, and remarked on floods after the spring
snow melt (Rethly, 1970:111; Sammlung, 1726:153). Two years later, in 1727 Reimann
reported again that it rained nearly every day in the Highlands in August (Rethly,
1970:124; Sammlung, 1727:454). Gyorgy Buchholtz noted in this meteorological diary
that late summer of 1734 brought very wet weather destroying a significant amounts of
produce (Rethly, 1962:144; Weber, 1896:146). Transylvania had drought in August of
1740 (Rethly, 1970:161; Apor, 1863:210), while late summer in 1751 was wet again in
Transylvania (Rethly, 1970:187; Vcisdrhelyi, 1948:236).
The period from the 1760s until almost the middle of the 19'h century brought most-
ly dry weather in August. Transylvania suffered from a drought in August of 1763 such
that the leaves withered and fell (Rethly, 1970:205; Cserei Gy., 1875:375). August of
1767 was one of the last rainy late summers and Transylvanian sources wrote that the
high precipitation levels destroyed the corn crops (Rethly, 1970:225; Halmcigyi,
1906:324). August of 1781 brought excessive heat and a drought to the Plain and there
remained hardly any viable grazing lands for the animals, according to 'Magyar
Hirmondo' (Hungarian Messenger) (Rethly, 1970:284; 29'h September). In the late
summer of 1782 dry weather was predominant once again in the Plain (Rethly,
1970:296; M.H., 7'h September). Two years later, in August of 1784 the `Magyar
Hirmondo' (Hungarian Messenger) reported that the drought was so serious that the
small branch of the Danube completely dried up between the Highlands and
Transdanubia (Rethly, 1970:318; M.H., 25th September). Transylvania also had a dry
late summer in 1788 (Rethly, 1970:354; M.K., 30'h August). August 1791 brought
drought-like weather conditions to the Pest-Buda area that caused crops and trees to
dry out, as recorded in the 'Ephemerides Budensis' (Rethly, 1970:383; E.B., 26'h
August). The 'Magyar Kurir' (Hungarian Courier) wrote in the late summer of 1794
that lakes and marshes dried up in the Highlands due to the drought, and the moss in
the marshes caught fire in several places (Rethly, 1970:416; M.K., 9''' September). Both
Tressburger Zeitung' and 'Vereinigte Ofner and Pester Zeitung' reported that August
1801 brought cool and rainy weather to the Plain and Transdanubia (Rethly, 1998m:10;
P.Z., September; V.O.P.Z., 20'h August). The Highlands saw not a drop of rain in
August 1804, noted the Historia Domus of the Franciscan Monastery in Eger (Rethly,
1998m:38). The Historia Domus of the Franciscan Monastery mentions the drought in
the Plain in the late summer of 1807 in Kecskemet (Rethly, 1998m:55). The August
months in 1810 and 1811 brought fine, warm and dry weather to the Plain (Rethly,
1998m:93,104; Magdics, 1888:165). The Plain experienced broiling hot and dry weather
in August of 1820 (Rethly, 1998m:292) and the grapes were already ripe in August due
to the warm weather, as reported by the Pest-Buda correspondent for `Hazai es
Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) (Rethly, 1998m:289; H.K.T., 19th
August). The same paper reported a drought that lasted until the end of August in
1822 (Rethly, 1998m:321; H.K.T., 31 4 August). Late summer of 1824 also brought dry
weather to the Pest-Buda region, which was reported in several different papers
(Rethly, 1998m:345; H.K.T., 28'h August). Tressburger Zeitung' also reported that a
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drought in August 1830 caused considerable damage to crops (Rethly, 1998m:439; P.Z.,
27th August). Three years later August of 1833 turned unusually cold and rainy, with
high precipitation levels delaying the corn harvest (Rethly, 1998m:473; H.K.T., 31"
August). Lciszlo Zlinszky noted in this diary that all three summer months in 1834
brought drought-like conditions (Rethly, 1998m:518). A severe drought in August of
1836 in the Plain caused grazing lands to become scorched, wrote the `Erdelyi Hirado'
(Transylvanian Messenger), so the live-stock was driven into the harvested fields to
graze (Rethly, 1998m:518; E.H., 3' September). Ilazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local
and Foreign Reports) wrote that August of 1839 brought severe heat and dry weather
to Transylvania unlike anything ever experienced before, and the shortage of rain
caused the crops to die and grazing-lands to become parched and burned by the heat
and the sun (Rethly, 1998m:591; H.K.T., 12'h October). Transylvania also experienced
extreme heat in August of 1841 causing severe damage to the crops noted Mihcily
Kircily, a Calvinist pastor (Rethly, 1998m:1010). In the following year, the month of
August in 1842 also brought drought to the Highlands and the Plain, with wells drying
u,p and grazing-lands desiccated due to the lack of precipitation noted the Nemzeti
Ujsag (National Paper) (Rethly, 1998m:636; N.U., 10'h September). Both the Highlands
and Transylvania had a very rainy August in 1845, and both regions experienced floods
(Rethly, 1998m:676; N.U., 25th August and 5th September), while late summer in 1850
was dry, as recorded in the Plain (Rethly, 1998m:715).
According to the averages of the Budapest time series the precipitation rates in
August fluctuated a great deal from decade to decade. The decades of the 1860s,
1890s, 1900s, and also the 1940s were extremely dry while late summers in the 1850s,
1880s and 1930s brought wet weather. Since the 1950s the months of August have
remained wet.
4.8.3. August Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
Temperature
The diagram of the 50-year temperature averages based on the climate history
reconstruction reveal variations on a one hundred year scale. This historical time series
shows a slight dominance of warm late summers. The only 50-year average with below
average temperatures dates from the second half of the 16'h century, but is based on so
little data that it can be ignored. The first peak of the fluctuating warming trend
occurred in the second half of the 17'h century, while the relative decrease in the first
half of the 18'h century leads into the steady high temperature average in the second
half of the 18th, and the first half of the 19th century. The 50-year temperature averages
from the Budapest instrument based time series show a stronger cooling trend from
the mid-19'h century until the mid-20'h century, while the August months in the second
half of our century turned warmer.
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Precipitation
The 50-year averages based on the climate history precipitation indexes show the
dominance of wet August months from the early 17'h until the mid-18'h century, again
disregarding the flimsy data from the 16'h century. It is easy to follow the trend of late
summers becoming drier in the second half of the 18'h and the first half of the 19'h cen-
tury. According to the 50-year averages of the Budapest precipitation time series the
drying process which started in the mid-18' century continued until the mid-20th cen-
tury, while the August months in the second half of our century turned again much
wetter.
Climate Change Characteristics
Augusts remained mostly warm and slightly wet from the turn of the 17'h until the
mid-18' century. Late summers continued to be warm without surplus precipitation in
the second half of the 18'" and first half of the 19'h century. The 50-year average of the
Budapest time series show that the temperature and precipitation levels moved in uni-
son, with the cooling trend accompanied by a drop in precipitation until the mid-20"
century, with subsequent Augusts becoming warmer accompanied by a rise in precipi-
tation levels.
Figure 27 August temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the
time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram
is based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest
observatory (1780-1996)
2
22.5
1.5
22
21.5
0.5
21
--e—H-T '
c 0
t11
—o—BP4
1550
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
2000
20.5
5
7.1
-0.5
c3
20
-1
19.5
-1.5
2
19
years
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58
53
H-P
E
BP-P
48 E
43
38
years
4.9. September
4.9.1. September Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
There is so little historical climate information available regarding average tempera-
tures in September prior to the 17`h century, that it is impossible to determine any
trends for that timeframe. There is only one temperature anomaly known to us, from
September 1551 when Lestcir Gyulafy wrote in his chronicle that "it was so cold that it
would not have been colder at Christmas either" (Bethly, 1962:78; Gyulafy, 1893:116).
The temperatures in the early autumns were quite stable from the second third of
the 17'h century until the mid-19'h century, with very few anomalies.
The Saxon Chronicles reported that September of 1618 was so hot that spring crops
were destroyed in Transylvania (Bethly, 1962:138; Bielz, 1862-63:39). 1639 went by with
warm and dry weather in Transylvania (Bethly, 1962:172; Haller, 1862:58). Gyiirgy
Czegei Vass recorded cold weather with some white frost for Transylvania in September
of 1685 (Bethly, 1962:342).
Andreas Loew wrote in his weather diary that September 1701 brought unusually
warm and dry weather to Transdanubia (Bethly, 1970:27; Sydenham, 1763:297). It was
also Loew that noted a fine, warm and mostly dry September of 1703 in Transdanubia
(Bethly, 1970:32; Sydenham, 1763:301). Early autumn in September 1705 brought cool
and rainy weather to Transdanubia (Bethly, 1962:36; Sydenham, 1763:312). However
the same month in 1708 was hot and dry (Bethly, 1962:44; Sydenham, 1763:334-335).
Father Istvcin Kortvelyesi Jr wrote in his diary that September of 1770 brought swelter-
ing heat to the Highlands (Bethly, 1970:502). Early autumn of 1781 was hot and dry in
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the Highlands and Transdanubia according to the 'Magyar Hirmondo' (Hungarian
Messenger), while September of 1797 was extremely warm in the Plain (Nthly,
1970:442; M.H., 5'h December).
The Pest-Buda correspondent of Tressburger Zeitung' reported September 1834 to
be so hot and dry that wells and streams dried up (Bethly, 1998m:489; P.Z., 8'h
November). Gabor Ecsedy, a Calvinist pastor wrote in his diary that the Plain had an
unusually warm September in 1838 (Nthly, 1998m:1130).
The averages of the Budapest temperature time series over the decades show that
there was a strong cooling trend in the middle third of the 19th century, coldest in the
1840s and 1850s. After the unusually warm decade of the 1860s, there was another
cooling trend reaching its coldest period in the 1910s. Beginning in the second third of
the 20'h century, the September months turned warmer while exhibiting significant
fluctuations,
Figure 28 September temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades
from the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on
the time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second dia-
gram is based on the time series for instrument observations from the
Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
19
18
17
16
15
14
years
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70
- 60
•
- 50
11
1 1
\It
E -0-BP-CS
f
5n8
- 40
-30
-20
- 10
years
4.9.2. September Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
While we have data indicating anomalies towards both 'extremes during the 16th cen-
tury, the overall data is far too sparse to enable us to outline any climate trend for the
period. Sebestyen Borsos reported in his chronicle that the drought-ridden summer of
1580 was followed by a dry September in Transylvania (Rethly, 1962:96; Borsos,
1855:25). It was noted in Istvcinfi's chronicle that the royal troops could not travel on
the sloppy roads in September of 1596 (Rethly, 1962:107; Istvcinfi, 1867-71:769). Istwinfi
also noted that the siege of Szigetvar was delayed by the rainy weather in 1597 (Rethly,
1962:108; Istvanfi, 1867-71:788).
The September months of the 17th century show a slight precipitation surplus, never-
theless there were precipitation anomalies of both extremes during the century.
Transylvanian sources indicate that it was so dry in September 1639 that it was impossi-
ble to plant crops (Rethly, 1962:161; Haller, 1862:58). Early autumn of 1644 brought
warm and dry weather to the Highlands (Rethly, 1962:172; Haller, 1862:95). The dry
period of September 1686 delayed autumn planting in Transylvania, wrote Gyiirgy
Czegei Vass (Rethly, 1962:342). Gyorgy Czegei Vass reported that Transylvania had such
a dry September in 1692 that it precluded ploughing (Rethly, 1962:347). According to
Raygeri's observations September of 1695 brought frequent rains to the Highlands
(Rethly, 1962:172; Sydenham, 1763:172).
Septembers in the first two thirds of the 18' century turned much wetter. DE Loew
observed that early autumn of 1701 brought warm and dry weather to Transdanubia
(Rethly, 1970:27; Sydenham, 1763:297). This region had a cool and rainy September in
1705 (Rethly, 1970:36; Sydenham, 1763:312). Loew noted warm and dry weather again
in the Early autumn of 1708 (Rethly, 1970:44; Sydenham, 1763:334-335). Gyorgy
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Buchholtz recorded that rain was frequent in the Highlands in the early autumn of
1717 (Rethly, 1970:69; Sammlung, 1720:414), while Janos Adam Reimann noted the
same in September of 1720 (Rethly, 1970:87; Sammlung, 1720:414). On the other hand,
Gyorgy Buchholtz noted that September of 1726 was so dry in the Highlands that it pre-
cluded the planting of crops (Rethly, 1970:119). The following year Buchholtz reported
in September of 1727 that the corn germinated in the fields due to the overabundance
of rain (Rethly, 1970:124; Nachrichten, 1727:539). September of 1729 was laconically
characterised by Gyorgy Buchholtz to be a 'rainy month' (Rethly, 1970:134;
Nachrichten, 1729:535). Notes from the Highlands said that the grapes started to split
on the vine due to the heavy rains in September of 1751, so the harvest had to be start-
ed early (Rethly, 1970:187; Bat-6a, 1893-96:533). Due to the numerous rainy days in
September of 1758, the autumn planting could not start until St. Michael's Day (29
September) (Rethly, 1970:196; Cserei Gy., 1875:325-326,341). Father Istvcin Kortvelyesi
Jr. noted that the grapes started to rot on the vine due to frequent rains in September
of 1768 (Rethly, 1970:501).
The precipitation averages by decade for the last third of the 18th century indicate a
very stable period however these statistical averages mask the reality that the frequen-
cy of precipitation in September increased over the last three-quarters of the period
covered by our climate history reconstruction. Father Istvcin Kortvelyesi Jr. wrote that
the Highlands had constant early autumn drought in September of 1776 (Rethly,
1970:506). Kortvelyesi also reported dry weather in the Highlands in September of 1779
(Rethly, 1970:506). The 'Magyar Hirmondo' (Hungarian Messenger) wrote that the
grapes started to rot again in September 1780 due to the constant rains in the
Highlands (Rethly, 1970:273; M.H., 14' October). The correspondents from
Transdanubia and the Highlands of the same paper reported that early autumn the fol-
lowing year brought heat and drought to those regions. In September 1782 the small
arm of the Danube below Pest-Buda dried up completely between Transdanubia and
the Highlands due to the drought (Rethly, 1970:297; M.H., 21" September). The
September rains in 1794 caused serious damage to the vineyards of the Tokaj region in
the Highlands (Rethly, 1970:417; M.H., 14' October). The Pressburger Zeitung'
reported that Transdanubia received constant rain in September of 1801 with the
exception of only a few days of dry weather (Rethly, 1998m:11; P.Z., 6' October). The
dry September weather in 1802 was not beneficial to the grape harvest in Buda, wrote
'Vereinigte Ofner and Pester Zeitung' (Rethly, 1998m:19; V.O.RZ., 23' September and
7th October). September of 1803 was dry again the following year in Hungary according
to various newspapers (Rethly, 1998m:33). It was noted in the Historia Domus of the
Franciscan Monastery in Kecskemet that the whole month of September in 1809 was
rainy in the Plain (Rethly, 1998m:80), while the `Hazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local
and Foreign Reports) published an article about a drought in Transdanubia and the
Plain in the early autumn of 1810, making it impossible to plough or plant (Rethly,
1998m:90; H.K.T., 19' September). September of the following year was dry again and
farmers with livestock in the Highlands had serious difficulty providing the animals
with enough fodder in 1811 (Rethly, 1998m:103). In 1813 the Tressburger Zeitung'
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
wrote about extensive rainfalls causing serious floods in the country (Rethly,
1998m:136; RZ., 17" and 24'h September, 5" October). The Highlands again received a
lot of rain in September of 1818, wrote Jozsef Asvay .161cai in his diary (Rethly,
1998m:267). The Plain had dry weather in the early autumn of 1824 (Rethly,
1998m:347; Auer, 1952:195). The newspapers reported in detail about the unusually
wet weather in 1833, causing the grapes to start rotting on the vine, and the rivers in
the Highlands to flo.od in several places (Rethly, 1998m:475; H.K.T., 5" and 9"
October). The following year, September 1834, brought a long drought, causing the
water level of the Danube to fall so low that there were shallows in the riverbed
(Rethly, 1998m:486; H.K.T., 11'h October). The 'Erdelyi Hfrado' (Transylvanian
Messenger) reported that the September weather in 1837 was very dry in the Plain
(Rethly, 1998m:519; E.H. 22"d October).
The Budapest precipitation time series shows that precipitation was very different in
the 19" century, with a notable minimum in the 1860s and 1890s, and a notable maxi-
mum in the 1880s. The 20th century started with high precipitation rates referred to as
unsurpassable and it led practically straight to the extremely dry decade of the 1940s.
The quantity of early-autumn precipitation rose slightly in the 1950s and 1960s, but a
new trend of decreasing precipitation began in the 1970s.
4.9.3. September Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
Temperature
The graph of the 50-year averages calculated from the temperature indexes of the
climate history reconstruction, with slight fluctuations, closely follows the '0' value or
`reference average' value. This indicates that the temperatures within the studied peri-
od tended to be average in nature overall, with the exception of the 16th century period
for which there is insufficient reliable data available. The Budapest time series based
on instrument measurements shows a higher proportion of significant temperature
changes than that observed for the period analysed using historical reconstruction
methods. In fact there was a steady and significant cooling process from the turn of the
19' until the middle of the 20" century, followed by a strong warming trend in the sec-
ond half of our century.
Precipitation
The time series showing the 50-year averages based on climate history reconstruc-
tion data is quite similar to that for temperature as once again only slight fluctuations
are observed during the three and a half centuries analysed. But in the case of the pre-
cipitation time series there is overall slight precipitation surplus for the period. It is
worth noting that the slight drying trend that started in the mid-18" century, as indicat-
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ed by the historical reconstruction, is shown to have continued to the present day
according to the Budapest data gleaned from instrument based measurements.
Climate Change Characteristics
While we are again forced to exclude from the analysis that period of the 16'h centu-
ry which is poorly documented, it can be clearly seen that most of the September
months from the turn of the 17th century until the second half of the 18'h century exhib-
ited stable temperatures and a slight surplus of precipitation. From the beginning of
the 19'h century, a cooling trend begins, lasting until the mid-20'h century, which is
accompanied by a drying trend. The subsequent warming trend in the second half of
our century is accompanied by a continuation of the tendency towards drier weather in
evidence now for the past two centuries.
Figure 29 September temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades
from the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on
the time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second dia-
gram is based on the time series for instrument observations from the
Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
18.5
18
17.5
17
8
H-T
-4 - BP-T
16.5
-4
16
15.5
15
years
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2
1.5
60
55
0.5-
50
45E
H-P
E
1550
1600
—o—BP-P
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
-0.5 -
40
35
-1.5 -
30
-2
25
years
4.10. October
4.10.1. October Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
The October temperature time series based on the climate history reconstruction
reflects considerable stability, with few fluctuations away from our reference average
month temperature or '0' value. Further support for this observation is reflected by the
fact that there are very few anomalies in the October temperature time series.
Turkish historians recorded that Turkish troops returning home after the unsuccess-
ful siege of Vienna in October 1529 suffered considerably due to the cold, wet weather
in Transdanubia (Rethly, 1962:66; Thary, 1893:341-344). On the other hand the trees
were blossoming in October of 1553 due to the warm weather (Rethly, 1962:79; Hain
D., 1853-54:8). Zsigmond Torda wrote in his diary that October of 1562 was dry and
warm in the Highlands (Rethly, 1962:266).
We know of one single temperature anomaly from the 17'h century. Transylvanian
sources reported that the cold winter weather had already started in October of 1614
(Rethly, 1962:133; Hain D., 1853-54:16).
Transdanubia had a heat wave unlike anything previously experienced in October of
1701, wrote Andreas Loew (Rethly, 1970:27; Sydenham, 1763:297). The Fauth Chronicle
reported that October of 1716 brought cold and frost to Transdanubia, and in some
areas it even snowed (Rethly, 1970:65). According to Janos Adam Reimann's meteoro-
logical notes, the Highlands had a cold October in 1730 with frequent snowfalls
(Rethly, 1970:137; Nachrichten, 1730:1383). The 'Pressburger Zeitung' reported cold
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and snowy weather in the Highlands in October of 1775 (Bethly, 1970:243; P.Z. 3"
January, 1776).
The Pest-Buda correspondent of the `Hazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok' (Local and
Foreign Reports) wrote that the weather was pleasant and warm in October of 1819
(Nthly, 1998m:278; H.K.T., 13'h November). The same month in 1825 brought cold and
rainy weather in the Highlands (Nthly, 1998m:358; H.K.T., 14th December). Antal
Karcicsony noted in his diary that it was warm in Transdanubia in October 1841, when
the fruit trees blossomed for the second time that year, and there was even a second
crop of strawberries (Bethly, 1998m:1328). `Erdelyi Hirado' (Transylvanian Messenger)
published the news that the warm weather in October 1846 resulted in the harvesting
of a second crop of cherries in Buda (Rahly, 1998m:689; E.H., 1" November).
The October months in mid-19'h century were warm, as shown by the data of the
Budapest temperature time series, and the high-point of the 1950s decade has not
since been exceeded. Nevertheless a period of fluctuations with an overall cooling
trend began in the second half of the 18' century, reaching its lowest points in the
1880s and 1910s. Mid-autumn turned warmer again from the middle of the 20' centu-
ry, with notable warm periods in the 1960s and 1980s.
Figure 30 October temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades from
the 16m century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the time
series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram is
based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest obser-
vatory (1780-1996)
H-T
I —6— BP-T '
years
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80
70
60
1-11— H-P
I
E —*--13P-CS
50
40
20
years
4.10.2. October Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
The October months of the 16'h century were mostly wet according to the few
sources available. Turkish sources tell us about unusually cold, wet weather in October
1529, and that there were extensive spates in Transdanubia (Rethly, 1962:66; Thiry,
1893:341). Istvcinfi's Chronicle recorded that the constants rains and muddy roads
caused delay in the troop movements of Suleiman I returning home from Buda
through Transdanubia in October 1543 (Rethly, 1962:73; Istvcinfi, 1867-71:310).
Zsigmond Torda noted in his diary that the Highlands had dry warm weather in
October 1562 (Rethly, 1962:266). The month of October two years later in 1564, again
according to Torda's notes, brought constant rain to the Highlands (Rethly, 1962:267).
Palatine Istvcin Illeshazy recorded in October 1598 that the constant rains prevented
the movement of the Turkish troops in the Plain and in Transdanubia (Rethly,
1962:109; Illeshcizy, 1863:62).
Precipitation increased in October months in the middle third of the 17'h century.
Transylvania experienced a very dry period in October 1642, which prevented fall
planting (Rethly, 1962:168; Haller, 1862:80). Saxon sources reported that October of
1649 was so rainy in Transylvania that it was impossible to drive on the muddy roads
(Rethly, 1962:178; Krauss, 1862:1.179). Count Mihaly Teleki wrote in a letter that
Transylvania was hit by such heavy rains in October 1678 that the Turkish envoys post-
poned their return due to the spates (Rethly, 1962:218; Teleki, 1905-26:VII.559).
There was a decrease in precipitation in the October months of last decades of the
17'h century. October 1686 was very dry in Transylvania, wrote Gyorgy Czegei Vass
(Rethly, 1962:342).
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Rainy October months dominated the whole of the 18'h century. The Payr Chronicle
reported that October of 1700 brought hopelessly rainy weather in Transdanubia
(Rethly, 1962:262; Payr, 1942:92-93). The same month nine years later in 1709 again
brought an abundance of rain to the Plain (Rethly, 1970:49; Cserey M., 1852:420). Jcinos
Adam Reimann noted that it rained nearly every day in the Highlands in October 1728
(Rethly, 1970:130; Nachrichten, 1728:1439. Both the Bruckner Chronicle and Father
Istvcin Kortvelyesi Jr., a Calvinist pastor, related that frequent rains fell in Transdanubia
and the Highlands in October 1761 (Rethly, 1970:200, 500). The Historia Domus of the
Franciscan Monastery in Gyongyos recorded that a rainy October in 1770 caused a
delay in the harvesting of the grapes in the Highlands (Rethly, 1970:473). Tressburger
Zeitung' reported in October 1775 that the Highlands had cold weather and a lot of
snow. The thick snow cover caused a lot of damage to the fruit gardens and forests
(Rethly, 1970:243; R Z., 3'd January, 1776). A year later Father Istvan KOrtvelyesi Jr
wrote that October brought a severe drought to the Highlands (Rethly, 1970:505).
Scimual Benko's notes indicate that October of 1785 was rainy and windy in the
Highlands (Rethly, 1970:527).
Precipitation rates for the months of October decreased somewhat in the first half
of the 19'h century. The Highlands had an extremely dry October in 1802, wrote the
Pressburger Zeitung', when wells and rivers dried up and there were frequent forest
fires as well (Rethly, 1998m:20; P.Z., 15'h October). There were rains across the country
in October of 1808 causing heavy floods according to the `Hazai es Ktilfoldi
Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) (Rethly, 1998m:64; H.K.T., 29 1" October). A
year later in 1809 the rainy weather of the previous October returned once again
(Rethly, 1998m:83). The Pest-Buda correspondent of the `Hazai es Kiilfiildi
Tudositasok' (Local and Foreign Reports) wrote that the weather in October of 1823
was very dry (Rethly, 1998m:335; H.K.T., 29th October). October of 1825 brought cold
and rainy weather according to the Highlands-correspondent of the same paper, and
the roads were made impassable to traffic (Rethly, 1998m:358; H.K.T. 14th December).
As a result of dry October weather in 1832, the Danube reached its lowest water levels
ever, according to news reported by the Highlands-correspondent of the Pressburger
Zeitung' (Rethly, 1998m:463; P.Z., 6'h November). 'Vereinigte Ofner and Pester
Zeitung' reported constant rainfall in the Plain in October 1840 (Rethly, 1998m:605;
V.O.RZ., 13'h December). Gabor Ecsedy, a Calvinist pastor, wrote in his diary that the
Plain saw rains mostly in the first and last third of October in 1847 (Rethly,
1998m:1180).
The averages of the Budapest precipitation time series by decade show that after
major fluctuations in the middle of the 19 1" century the October months became mostly
wet from the 1880s until the 1930s. This trend reversed in the mid-20th century with the
trend towards drier Octobers becoming particularly notable beginning in the 1960s.
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4.10.3. October Climate Change Characteristics over the
Centuries
Temperature
The temperature time series based on the climate history reconstruction is fairly sta-
ble and shows the dominance of October months that are slightly cooler than the aver-
age. The exceptions to this overall trend were the cold period in the first half of the 17"
century, and the warm period in the first half of the 19'h century. The Budapest time
series based on data collected with weather instruments shows a long period of cooler
weather from the mid-19" until the mid-20" century followed by a warming trend in the
second half of the century.
Precipitation
The October precipitation time series based on a reconstructed climate history
showed a significant and notable precipitation surplus for the duration of the Little Ice
Age, with the only exception being a drier period in the first half of the 19'h century.
The Budapest instrument based measurements show that October precipitation rates
did not change much in the second half of the 19'h and the first half of the 20'h century,
while in the second half of our century a definite tendency towards drier Octobers is
evident.
Climate Change Characteristics
The dominant character of October months during the Little Ice Age was cool and
wet weather until the end of the 18th century. The cooling process from the mid-19'h
through the mid-20th century was not accompanied by a significant change in precipita-
tion rates, while the warmer period that started in the second half of our century did
bring with it a significant drying trend.
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▪
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Figure 31 September temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades
from the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on
the time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second dia-
gram is based on the time series for instrument observations from the
Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
2
12.5
12
11.5
0.5 —
8
j —e—H4
0
1:1
11
.5
1550
1650
1850
1900
1950
2000
-0.5 —
10.5
10
-2
9.5
years
2
75
1.5
•- 70
65
60
0.5
55
745•111-8
•
0
4
E
E
.5
1550
1600
1650
1100
1750
1800
1850
1900
50
-0.5
45
-1
40
-1.5
35
-2
30
years
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4.11. November
4.11.1. November Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
One can venture to conclude, despite the uneven distribution of the meagre sources
available to us for the period, that the November weather was mostly cold from the
beginning of the 16'h until the middle of the 17'h century, and that this was particularly
true at the turn of the 17'h century. Istvanfi wrote in his chronicle that unusually cold
weather in November of 1595 caused a lot of suffering among both the Turkish and the
Royal troops (Rethly, 1962:106; Istvcinfi, 1867-71:754). Turkish historians wrote that the
winter weather had already begun in October 1597, and that it was snowing in
November (Rethly, 1962:113; Karticson, 1916:269). Reports from Sopron indicate that
Transdanubia was already experiencing winter weather, including snow, in November
of 1600 (Rethly, 1962:113). It was recorded in the Payr Chronicle that the vintage start-
ed as late as November in 1632, but the grapes were frozen on the vine stalks (Rethly,
1962:152; Payr, 1942:24). Saxon Chronicles reported that it was snowing in November
of 1634 and that the cold weather was as unbearable as one might normally expect in
January (Rethly, 1962:153; Krauss, 1862:1.117).
The average November temperatures by decade paint a stable picture from the sec-
ond half of the 17th until the end of the 18th century, and the number of temperature
anomalies was low during this period of one hundred and fifty years. It snowed in
Transylvania early in November of 1686 and the resultant useful sledge-road remained
in good condition until Christmas, wrote Gyorgy Czegei Vass (Rethly, 1962:342). Prince
Imre TholcOly entered in his war log that November of 1693 brought pleasant spring-
like weather to the Plain (Rethly, 1962:331). Transdanubia experienced unusually mild
weather in November of 1708, according to Andreas Loew's notes (Rethly, 1970:45;
Sydenham, 1763:334-335). Janos Adam Reimann published an article in the scientific
magazine `Nachrichten...' in Erfurt stating that the first half of November was cold in
the Highlands in 1730, while it snowed in the second half (Rethly, 1970:137;
Nachrichten, 1730:1439). 'Magyar Hirmondo' (Hungarian Messenger) wrote that the
weather in November of 1782 was so cold in Hungary that there was already ice drift-
ing on the Danube (Rethly, 1970:299; M.H., 7th December).
Based on the climate history data, one concludes that beginning from the first half
of the 18'h century, the average November temperature rose, and the number of posi-
tive temperature anomalies grew as well. Thanks to the warm weather in November of
1811 there were ripe strawberry fields in Transdanubia and the grapes sprouted again
on the vines, according to the Bruckner Chronicle (Rethly, 1998m:106). The Pest-
Buda correspondent wrote for the `Hazai es Killfoldi 'lltdositasok' (Local and Foreign
Reports) that the weather was mild in November of 1821 and that the livestock could
be driven to pasture until early December (Rethly, 1998m:306; H.K.T., 19th December).
In 1829 the newspapers carried reports about early November snow falling across the
country. They also reported that the second half of the month was extremely cold, that
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there were snowstorms, and that ice floes were drifting down the Danube at Pest-Buda
by the 20'h of November (Bethly, 1998m:411; H.K.T., 18'h and 21" November).
The data from the Budapest temperature time series indicate that most of the
November months in the middle third of the 19Th century were warm, particularly dur-
ing the 1850s and 1870s. There was a transitory cooling trend at the turn of the 20'"
century, while the November weather turned milder from the 1930s through the 1970s.
The average November temperature of the 1980s and 1990s has been more reminis-
cent of late autumn than early winter.
Figure 32 November temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades
from the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on
the time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second dia-
gram is based on the time series for instrument observations from the
Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
years
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HP
BP-CS
years
4.11.2. November Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
The time series based on climate history reconstruction shows a steady surplus of
precipitation in the November months from the early 16'h until the mid-19''' century.
The Istvanfi Chronicle reported that constant cold rains caused difficulties in the
movement of the Turkish and the Royal troops at Buda in November of 1530 (Rethly,
1962:66; Istvcinfi. 1867-71:202).
Saxon sources indicate that there was plenty of rain in November of 1641 and it was
impossible to drive on the roads (Rethly, 1962:165; Haller, 1862:73). Similarly weather
in Transylvania in November 1649, also according to Saxon sources, caused disruption
to road traffic as well as mud slides in several areas (Rethly, 1962:178; Krauss,
1862:1.179). Amrus Keczer entered in his diary that the Highlands experienced constant
rain in November of 1665 making road travel difficult and causing spates in several
places (Rethly, 1962:283). GyOrgy Czegei Vass recorded that Transylvania had rainy,
muddy conditions in November of 1689 (Rethly, 1962:344).
The Payr Chronicle reported that most of the autumn was unusually wet in
Transdanubia in the year of 1700, with constant rain from St. Michael's Day
(September 29) until Advent (November 28) (Rethly, 1962:262; Payr, 1942:92-93).
November of 1709 also brought plenty of rain according to Transylvanian sources
(Rethly, 1970:29; Cserei M., 1852:420). This region had rainy, foggy, cloudy weather in
November of 1764 (Rethly, 1970:212; Cserei Gy., 1875:389). Father Istvan Kortvelyesi Jr
recorded that it rained constantly during November of 1773 in the Highlands (Rethly,
1970:503), and that similar conditions in the same region in November 1775, made the
vintage more difficult (Rethly, 1970:504). The Pressburger Zeitung' wrote that there
were spates in the Highlands as a result November rains in 1779 (Rethly, 1970:260;
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P.Z., 271 " November and 11' December). November 1782 brought cold and extremely
cold weather to the Highlands and the traffic was totally blocked by snow storms,
according to the 'Magyar Hirmondo' (Hungarian Messenger) (Rethly, 1970:299; M.H.,
13' November).
The Budapest instrument based precipitation time series shows that November pre-
cipitation in the second third of the 19' century was quite unstable and that there was a
notable trend towards drier weather beginning with the 1880s, which continued until
the beginning of the 20" century. November precipitation increased significantly in the
middle third of the 20' century, most notably in the 1940s and 1960s, decreasing again
from the 1970s on.
4.11.3. November Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
Temperature
The 50-year averages of the November temperature time series shows a dominance
of cold November months from the beginning of the 16' until the middle of the 17'
century. From the second half of the 17 6 until the middle of the 19" century, the aver-
age November temperature remained steady around the '0' value marking the refer-
ence average. The Budapest instrument based data results in a time series indicating
that Novembers became significantly colder during the 19' century. From the turn of
the 20' century there was a strong warming trend, which has continued until this day.
Precipitation
Precipitation levels were mostly positive during November months from the begin-
ning of the 16' until the mid-19' century. A drying trend started to take shape at the
turn of the 19' century, strengthening significantly in the second half of the century.
Novembers turned wet again in the first half of the 20th century, and from the middle of
the century the drying trend returned.
Climate Change Characteristics
Novembers were mostly cold and wet from the beginning of the 16' until the end of
the 18' century. The November weather in the first half of the 19' century, while wet,
was somewhat milder. According to the Budapest temperature time series, the steady
warming period which started in the second half of the 19' century was accompanied
by a rise in precipitation levels until the mid-20' century, after which precipitation
decreased again throughout the second half of the century.
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Figure 33 November temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades
from the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on
the time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second dia-
gram is based on the time series for instrument observations from the
Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
2
6.5
1.5 --
6
0.5 —
5.5
3,
BP-d
5
4.5
2
4
years
2
76
1.5 —
71
66
0.5 —
H-P
0
61 E
,
r
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
950
-0.5 —
56
-1 -
51
2
46
years
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4.12. December
4.12.1. December Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
As stated earlier, there are only a few sources of climate history related information
available from the 16' century, so no definite climate change trend can be outlined for
that timeframe. There are records available, however, regarding some temperature
anomalies. Count Tamcis Ncidasdy wrote in his letter that the Danube froze between
the Highlands and Transdanubia in December of 1538 due to the cold weather (Rethly,
1962:82-83; Komciromy, 1911:97). On the other hand, December of 1562 brought wet,
warm weather to the Highlands, wrote Zsigmond Torda (Rethly, 1962:266). December
weather a year later was again mild in the Highlands, reported Gcispar Hain, with the
result that it was still possible plough just two weeks before Christmas (Rethly, 1962:86;
Hain G., 1910-13:100). It was so cold in December 1565 that all the rivers froze in
Transylvania, wrote Sebestyen Borsos (Rethly, 1962:269). Zsigmond Torda noted that the
whole month of December brought mild weather in 1567 (Rethly, 1962:269).
The average December temperatures in the decades of the 17th and 18th century
were stable and the number of anomalies was remarkable low.
The Payr Chronicle reported that the weather was constantly warm in Transdanubia
in December of 1612, and that there were no frosts until New Year's eve (Rethly,
1962:131; Payr, 1942:11). Transylvania experienced such warm weather in December of
1641 that gardens and fields were in blossom (Rethly, 1962:165; Krauss, 1862:136). As a
result of the autumn dry weather, autumn planting was possible in Transylvania only at
the end of November in 1642, but the December frosts caused a lot of damage to the
crops (Rethly, 1962:168; Haller, 1862:81). GyOrgy Czegei Vass recorded in his diary that
December of 1684 brought such mild weather that was possible to plough and plant
until Christmas (Rethly, 1962:341).
Albert Bielz's Saxon Chronicles note that the weather was extremely cold in
Transylvania in December 1754 (Rethly, 1970:191; Bielz, 1862-63:65). This area had a
dry, cold period in December of 1762, with major frosts causing considerable damage
to the recently sown crops that were left unprotected due to the lack of snow cover
(Rethly, 1970:201-202; Halmagyi, 1906:41). The Pressburger Zeitung' reported that
December of 1781 brought a severe cold period to Transylvania and the Plain, causing
the River Temes to freeze from the surface all the way down to the riverbed (Rethly,
1970:286; P.Z., 12' January, 1782). The correspondents of various newspapers com-
mented that December of 1788 was colder in every region of the country than it had
ever been before, and that the Danube was already frozen solidly enough at Pest-Buda
on the 20' of December to support the weight of heavy carts crossing the ice (Rethly,
1962:355-356; P.Z., 10' January, 1789; M.K., 10' January, 1789). According to Samuel
Benko's weather observations, December of 1799 also brought extremely cold weather
to the Highlands (Rethly, 1970:534).
99
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
The averages of the December temperature indexes by decades in the first half of
the 191h century show that the early-winter weather turned slightly milder. Pressburger
Zeitung' wrote that the December weather was definitely spring-like in 1802 (Rethly,
1998m:20; P.Z., 7111 January, 1803). Cold winter weather arrived in Transdanubia and
the Plain early in December of 1812, reported the `Hazai es Kiilfoldi Tudositasok'
(Local and Foreign Reports), and at Pest-Buda traffic was already crossing the ice on
the Danube, with temperatures at Buda reaching as low as —20 to -25 °C by the end of
December. Due to the intense cold, wolves were sighted in the `puszta' region of the
Plain and many people froze to death (Rethly, 1998m:115; H.K.T., 30'h December). The
Pressburger Zeitung' reported that December of 1822 brought such cold weather that
by the end of the month thick ice had formed on the Danube at Pest-Buda, again
allowing the transport of goods across the ice (Rethly, 1998m:323; P.Z., 24th December
and 5'h January, 1823). December of 1825 passed with warm, spring-like weather, there
were no frosts, the roads were covered with dry dust and the gardens and fields were in
blossom (Rethly, 1998m:359; H.K.T., 31" December). According to Pressburger
Zeitung', Transdanubia and the Plain experienced severe winter cold in December of
1829, with temperatures of -14 °C recorded in Buda around Christmas (Rethly,
1998m:413; P.Z., 30'h December). The Danube froze between Transdanubia and the
Highlands during the cold December of 1840, and temperatures dropped to the -17,5 —
20 °C range in Bratislava (G-Pressburg, H-Pozsony) during the period (Rethly,
1998m:606). Laszlo Zlinszky entered in his diary that the Plain experienced mild
weather in December of 1841, with the first frost coming as late as the last day of the
month (Rethly, 1998m:939). December of 1843 was mild and rainy, according to Gabor
Ecsedy's records (Rethly, 1998m:1161).
The decade average temperatures for December according to the Budapest time
series show that the milder weather at the turn of the 19'h century was replaced by cold
weather beginning in the mid-19th century. This 1870s experienced the coldest weather
during this colder trend that lasted throughout the second half of the 19th century. The
December weather, while fluctuating to a great extent, became overall milder again
during the 20'h century. Remarkable positive anomalies were recorded in the 1910s,
1950s and 1960s, while there was a significant cooling trend between the 1920s and
1940s and in the 1960s.
100
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 34 December temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades
from the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on
the time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second dia-
gram is based on the time series for instrument observations from the
Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
ree
H-T
deg
--0— BP-T
ius
ls
Ce
years
70
65
60
55
H-P
50 E
1
,7*— BP-C
40
- 35
30
years
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
4.12.2. December Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends
The available sources of climate history information make it possible to trace
changes in early winter precipitation beginning in the second half of the 16'h century
and it is evident that the December months remained wet until the mid-19' century,
except for a drier decade mid-17'h century.
Gcispar Hain wrote in his chronicle that December of 1652 was so dry in the
Highlands that the water mills stopped working (Rethly, 1962:181; Hain G., 1910-
13:255). Gyorgy Czegei Vass recorded in December of 1684 that Transylvania received
an unusual amount of rain (Rethly, 1962:386).
December of 1728 brought considerable amounts of snow to the Highlands, accord-
ing to Janos Adam Reimann's observations (Rethly, 1970:131; Nachrichten, 1729:307).
He also noted that it snowed continuously in the Highlands in December of 1730
(Rethly, 1970:137; Nachrichten, 1730:1497). The weather was dry and cold in
Transylvania in December 1762 (Rethly, 1970:201-202; Habnagyi, 1906:41), while two
years later, in 1764 it rained constantly in Transylvania and in the Plain, according to
reports in two different newspapers (Rethly, 1970:212; Peteiffy, 1908:207). Father Istvan
Kortvelyesi Jr., a Calvinist pastor wrote that the Highlands experienced rainy weather
throughout December of 1773 (Rethly, 1970:503). Kortvelyeses diary indicates that the
roads in the Highlands very muddy in December of 1775 (Rethly, 1970:504). Kortvelyesi
was to report again in December of 1778 that it was extremely rainy (Rethly, 1970:506).
The 'Pressburger Zeitung' published the news in December 1779 that due to the rainy
weather there were serious spates in the Highlands unlike anything ever experienced
before (Rethly, 1970:260; P.Z., 25'h December). This series of wet early winters contin-
ued in 1780, when the 'Magyar Hirmondo' (Hungarian Messenger) reported that the
beginning of the month was rather rainy, while the second half of the month brought a
lot of sleet (Rethly, 1970:276; M.H., 6' January, 1781). The Highlands experienced a
very rainy December in 1785 to such an extent that road traffic was nearly completely
disrupted according to 'Pressburger Zeitung' (Rethly, 1970:330; P.Z., 4'h January, 1786).
December of 1788 was cold and very snowy in the Highlands, and snowstorms made
travel very difficult (Rethly, 1970:356; P.Z., 10'h January, 1789) and the 'Magyar Kurir'
(Hungarian Courier) reported in 1790 that even unloaded carts got stuck in the mud in
the Plain due to the rainy weather (Rethly, 1970:274; M.K., 7' January, 1791).
December of 1841 was mild but rainy in the Plain, wrote Gabor Ecsedy, a Calvinist
pastor (Rethly, 1998m:1149).
The Budapest instrument based precipitation time series indicates that December
average precipitation rates varied considerably and that there is no identifiable and
clear trend. The Budapest data indicates that the decades of the 1840s, 1850s, 1890s,
1920s, 1940s, 1970s and 1980s were especially dry, while the periods from the 1860s
until the 1880s and from the 1900s until the 1910s, and the years of the 1950s and
1960s were very wet.
102
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
4.12.3. December Climate Change Trends over the Centuries
Temperature
The graph resulting from the 50-year average values based on climate information
of a historical nature reflects a very balanced picture from the second half of the 16'
until the middle of the 19' century. With only slight variations, these values approxi-
mate quite well the '0' value marking the reference average temperature. The first half
of the 17" century appears to have been slightly colder, while the second half slightly
milder than our reference average. The December months of the 18'" century were
equally cold, while they turned slightly warmer in the first half of the 19° century. The
50 year averages of the Budapest temperature time series show that there was a signifi-
cant cooling trend in the second half of the 19th century, while a clear warming trend
started at the turn of the 20th century which continues until today.
Precipitation
The 'historical' 50-year averages of the precipitation indexes show a steady precipi-
tation surplus from the second half of the 16' until the middle of the 19° century, with
the diagram of the long-term trends reaching its highest value in the second half of the
18° century. The 50-year averages of the Budapest precipitation time series do not
show any significant changes in the one hundred and fifty-year period from the middle
of the 19° century until the present day.
Climate Change Characteristics
A review of the 50-year averages indicates that the December months were mostly
wet with average temperatures from the second half of the 16'h until mid-19" century.
The data of the Budapest 'instrument' based time series shows that the cold and wet
late winters in the second half of the 19'h century turned milder and slightly wetter in
the first half of the 20'h century. The further rise in the average temperature during the
second half of the 20'h century has been accompanied with a slight drying trend.
103
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 35 December temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades
from the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on
the time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second dia-
gram is based on the time series for instrument observations from the
Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
years
2
- 70
1.5
65
60
0.5
55
-
H-P
0
H-
50 E —40-13P-P I
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1
1950
2030
-as
45
40
-1.5
35
-2
30
years
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
5. SEASONAL CLIMATE TRENDS OF THE DECADES
AND CENTURIES
The time series for the centuries were created by summarising the monthly docu-
mentary sources. As already indicated in the methodological chapter, weather sum-
maries from the documentary sources for periods longer than a month were
disregarded.
5.1.Winter
Temperature
Records of winter weather observations are available in greater and greater num-
bers after the second half of the 16'h century than for dates prior to that. These records
indicate that winter weather towards the end of the 16'h century and at the turn of the
17'h century was rather varied. Cold winters in the 1570s and 1600s flanked the milder
winters of the 1580s.
The winters in the first two-thirds of the 17'h century were very cold, part of a cool-
ing trend that started at the beginning of the century, reaching its coldest in the 1620s,
and cold winters continued to dominate until the end of the 1660s.
The winter season in the last third of the 17'h and first third of the 18'h century
turned somewhat milder, a warming trend that ended with the mild winters in the
1720s and 1730s. Another cooling trend started towards the middle of the 18''' century,
producing the coldest winters in the 1740s and 1780s.
The time series for the historical reconstruction data show that Hungary had milder
and milder winters in the first half of the 19th century. The Budapest winter tempera-
ture time series indicates that winters were very cold from the years of the 1830s till the
end of the 19'h century.
A significant warming trend began with the 20'h century, reaching its first peak in the
1910s. Then, following a temporary cooling period, this trend of milder winters contin-
ued throughout the twentieth century to the present day.
Precipitation
The winter precipitation time series based on climate history reconstruction data
shows a steady surplus of precipitation, with slight variations, from the second half of
the 16h century practically until the end of the 18'h century.
Winter precipitation rates decreased slightly in the first half of the 19th century
according to the historical based reconstruction data. According to the Budapest
instrument observation based winter precipitation time series, the winters in the 1850s
105
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
were the driest ones, while the snowy winters of the 1870s were followed by another
dry period at the turn of the 20' century.
From the beginning of the 20 1h century, a trend of higher winter precipitation rates
prevailed. This process reached its peak in the 1950s, the decade with the highest pre-
cipitation rates during the period for which there exists instrument based observation
records for Budapest. Precipitation rates began decreasing in subsequent decades, a
trend that continues to the present day.
Climate Change Characteristics
Hungary had mostly cold and snowy winters from the second half of the 16" century
until the end of the 18' century. This stable situation changed at the beginning of the
19'h century, when winters turned much milder and slightly drier. There was another
cooling trend in the second half of the 19' century, but this was not accompanied by
higher winter precipitation rates. The winter weather grew increasingly milder from
the turn of the 20' century, accompanied by a rise in winter precipitation through the
1950s followed by decreased winter precipitation to the present day.
106
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 36 Winter temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the
time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram
is based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest
observatory (1780-1996)
2
1.5
0.5
—111— H-T
TJ
-0.5
-1.5
-2
years
years
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 37 Winter temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the
time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram
is based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest
observatory (1780-1996)
2
3
1.5 -
2
0.5
0
—t-
I
i
,
i
H-T
g
1550
1850
1900
2000
BP-T
, E1
E
-1 -
-2
2
years
2
1.5 -
180
160
0.5
140
I
H-P
0
i
sp..............
I-
1 -4--13P- P
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1950
2000
120
-0.5
100
80
•1.5
2
60
years
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
5.2. Spring
Temperature
The average spring temperatures across the decades of the 16th century show large
variations, and the likeliest explanation for these is that the information available from
this century consists almost entirely of temperature anomalies. An analysis of the 50-
averages makes it clear that the average spring temperature, for the duration of the cli-
mate history reconstruction from the beginning of the 16th century until the middle of
the 19th century, remains within the cold temperature domain.
The Budapest spring temperature time series shows that the milder springs in the
first two-thirds of the 19th century were followed by cooler springs in the last third of
the 18th century. This trend of cooler springs carried on into the first decades of the 20th
century, after which the trend turned to warmer springs beginning about a third of the
way through the 20th century up to the present day.
Precipitation
The first well-documented climate change of the spring precipitation time series in
the climate historical reconstruction was the dry period in the second third of the 16'''
century. Springs were mostly wet (i.e. exhibiting positive precipitation rates) from the
second half of the 16th century till the end of the 18th century. The wettest period during
this stable trend of wet springs occurred in the second half of the 17th century and the
first half of the 18th century. Within this century it is possible to differentiate between
three distinct cycles in the ongoing increase in precipitation rates. The first cycle peaks
in the 1670s, the second in the 1700s and the third in the 1730s.
The trend toward drier springs is easily discerned in the first half of the 19th century,
and the Budapest precipitation time series shows that the driest period was comprised
of the very dry springs in the 1840s. Compared to previous decades, springs became
much wetter at the turn of the 20'h century, and the springs of the 1880s, 1910s and
1930s were particularly wet. This trend of wet springs lasted for more than half a cen-
tury and ended in the mid-20th century, at which point spring weather became much
drier.
Climate Change Characteristics
The data of the climate historical reconstruction shows that the Little Ice Age,
which can be characterised as having brought cold and wet spring weather, determined
the spring climate from the turn of the 17th to the end of the 18th century.
The spring temperatures did not vary much in the first half of the 19'th century nor
through the middle of the century, but precipitation rates did decrease considerably. A
drop in precipitation rates also accompanied the cooling trend in the last third of the
19th century. While the temperature time series shows a constant warming trend from
the beginning of the 20'th century, it was only in the second half of the 20th century that
the trend of wet springs was replaced by a drier period.
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 38 Spring temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the
time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram
is based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest
observatory (1780-1996)
2
12.!
1.5
12
11.2 8
H-T
• L..—BP-T
I
u
10.2
10
years
-
H-P
-
BP-P
E
E
years
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 39 Spring temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the
time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram
is based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest
observatory (1780-1996)
12.5
0.8 -
0.6 -
12
0.4 -
0.2
11.5 13
.2
•
-o -a- H.p
0
5.
2 -0 - BP-P
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1950
2000
11
10.5
-0.8
10
years
280
0.8
0.6 -
230
0.4
0.2 -
180
H-P
•
-
BP- P
1550
16(X)
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
-0.2 -
130
-0.6
80
-0.8
30
years
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
5.3. Summer
Temperature
The temperature time series based on the climate history reconstruction show that
the summers were invariably warm from the beginning of the 16' century until the
middle of the 19" century, with the exception of only four decades from this three hun-
dred and fifty-year period. These decades when cooler summer weather prevailed are
well documented and are the following: the 1600s, 1640s, 1730s and 1760s.
The last third of the 18' century into the turn of the 19th century brought a series of
unusually warm summers, nevertheless the summer weather became milder in the first
half of the 19' century, and a significant cooling trend started in the mid-1800s, which
lasted until the 1920s. The summer weather turned warmer again from the middle of
the 20' century and while this warming trend has been somewhat balanced by the cool-
er summers of the period from 1960 through the 1980s, the warming trend has contin-
ued into the 1990s.
Precipitation
Summers from the 16th until the mid-18' century remained wet overall, with drier
summer weather occurring only in the decades of the 1540s, 1580s, 1610s and 1680s.
The unusually rainy summer period from the 1640s until the 1670s deserves special
mention within this time series of predominantly wet summers.
The trend of summers becoming drier made its appearance in the last third of the
18th century, and continued until the 1860s. Summers became again wet in the last third
of the 19' century and a drier period commenced again at the turn of the 20' century.
Wet summer weather prevailed again from the 1910s through the 1970s, and this trend
ended when dry summers made a comeback in the 1980s and 1990s.
Climate Change Characteristics
While summer weather from the beginning of the 16' century until the mid-18th cen-
tury was characteristically fairly warm and wet, the second half of the 18' century
brought summer weather that was significantly drier accompanied by a slightly cooling
trend. (This cooling was not extensive enough however to classify the temperatures as
cool compared to our reference average). The Budapest temperature time series show
that the comparative decrease in both temperature and precipitation continued in the
summers of the second half of the 19'h century and also into the first half of the 20th
century. These trends reversed in the second half of our century and through the 1970s
a summer warming trend has been accompanied by a significant rise in precipitation
rates. The summers of the last two decades, however, while continuing the warming
trend, have been drier.
112
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 40 Summer temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades
from the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on
the time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second dia-
gram is based on the time series for instrument observations from the
Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
years
27
22
H-P
E
BP-P
17
-1 -
12
3
70
years
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 41 Summer temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades
from the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on
the time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second dia-
gram is based on the time series for instrument observations from the
Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
23.5
0.8 -
—23
0.6 —
— 223
0.4 —
• 22
0.2 —
— 21.5
0
21
3
--BP-T
1550
1600
1650
17110
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2003
a
-0.2 —
• 20.5
-0.4 —
20
-0.6 —
— 19.5
-0.8 •
19
I8.5
270
0.8
0.6
0.4
220
0.2
5
5
1550
1600
1650
17110
1750
1800 'N....N1350
170
E
—11.-13P-P
-0.2
-0.4
1 20
-0.6
-0.8
70
years
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5.4. Autumn
Temperature
A review of the averages calculated for ten-year and fifty-year periods as per the
temperature time series based on the reconstructed climate history will illustrate that
autumn weather was mostly cool and cold from the beginning of the 16'h until the end
of the 18th century. The cold character of the autumn weather was more notable until
the mid-17'h century, while the following decades experienced particularly cold
autumns; the 1590s, 1600s and 1630s. Autumns of the one hundred and fifty year peri-
od from the mid-16 1" until the late 18'h century were just moderately cool, with the
exception of the notably cold autumns between the 1710s and 1740s.
According to the historical indexes, the autumn weather turned milder in the first
half of the 19 1" century. The Budapest temperature time series concurs quite reason-
ably, showing that this mild-trend came at the turn of the 19'h century. The equally mild
and sometimes very mild autumns in the first half of the 19'" century were replaced in
the second half of the century and at the turn of the 20'h century by autumn weather
that was mostly cold in nature. The autumn weather turned much milder after the
1920s, a warming trend that reached its peak in the 1940s and 1960s respectively, fol-
lowed by a slight cooling trend.
Precipitation
The precipitation time series based on reconstructed climate history show that
autumn weather remained constantly wet from the beginning of the 16'" until the end
of the 18th century. There was only one decade, the 1580s, that is classified as dry. The
most notably rainy of this long period of wet decades were as follows: the 1540s, 1590s,
1670s, 1750s and 1790s.
Autumn weather became drier in the first half of the 19'h century, a trend that con-
tinued until the 1860s, as shown by the Budapest precipitation time series. In the last
third of the 19'h century autumns turned wet again, and this predominance of wet
autumns prevailed until the 1930s. Autumn weather again turned drier mid-20" centu-
ry and this trend which strengthened in the 1970s, continues till today.
Climate Change Characteristics
The autumns from the early 161" until the late 18th century were mostly cool and
wet. The autumn weather turned milder and drier in the first half of the 19th century
according to the time series of the climate history reconstruction.
The Budapest meteorological instrument time series show that autumns in the sec-
ond half of the 19'h century were rather cool and dry. They became much warmer after
the turn of the 20th century, followed by a rise in the precipitation rate until the middle
of the 20th century. The autumn weather in the second half of our century while warm,
has become much drier as we approach the millennium.
115
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 42 Autumn temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the
time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram
is based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest
observatory (1780-1996)
12.5
12
10.5
0
9.5
yeam
2
1.5
240
0.5
190
I
E —e—BP-P •
140
-0.5
90
-1.5
2
40
years
116
-
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 43 Autumn temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the
time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram
is based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest
observatory (1780-1996)
0.8 -
0.6
0.4 -
I H-T
0
!
-02
-
-0.8
years
0.8 •
0.6
0.4 •
0.2 -
•
H-P
▪
;-41-BP-P
-
1550
1600
1650 •
1700
1750
1810
1851)
1 8)
1950
2(810
14(1
-0.2 -
-0.4 •
90
-0.8 -
40
years
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
6. HALF-YEARLY AND YEARLY CLIMATE CHANGE
TRENDS
This chapter deals with temperature and precipitation time series for the six-month
winter and summer periods based on monthly data, as well as with an analysis of the
temperature and precipitation time series from the point of view of a twelve-month
period.
6.1. Winter Half-Year
I used the averages of the months from October through March to analyse the cli-
mate change trends during the 'winter' half-year period.
Temperature
The weather during the winter half-year was cool overall, and in certain periods
even very cold from the beginning of the 16', until the end of the 18' century. This pre-
dominance of cool weather was significantly interrupted only in the second half of the
16' century by a milder period, which was followed by an extremely cold one in the
first half of the 17' century. The other outstanding feature of the winter half-year tem-
perature time series is the trend towards milder weather beginning in the mid-17" cen-
tury and continuing into the middle of the 19" century. The climate history based
indexes of the first half of the 19' century show that the winter half-year weather of
this period was sometimes very mild.
The Budapest temperature time series shows that the winter half-year weather
turned cold from the 1840s until the end of the 19' century. Another significant warm-
ing trend appeared early in the 20' century, which has since remained stable except for
a short period in the 1940s.
Precipitation
The precipitation time series based on climate history reconstruction shows that the
winter half-years remained wet from the early 16" century until the mid-19' century.
Within this period covering three and a half centuries, the only characteristically dry
winter half-years were in the 1580s. Subsequently, a drying trend became apparent in
the first half of the 19" century, bottoming out in the 1860s.
The Budapest precipitation time series shows that the weather of the winter half-
year periods turned wet again in the last third of the 19" century. This was followed by
a drier period at the turn of the 20" century, and then another wet trend developed in
the second third of the 20' century. The winter half-year periods became drier and
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
drier in Hungary in the last third of the 20th century after exhibiting the highest precipi-
tation levels in the 1930s and 1950s.
Climate Change Characteristics
The weather of the winter half-years was predominantly cool and wet from the early
16th until the late 18th century. This characteristic changed slightly in the first half of the
19'h century, when the winter half-years turned somewhat milder and drier.
The Budapest time series shows that winter half-year weather became cold and wet
in the second half of the 19th century. This was followed by a significant warming trend
in the 20' century, which was accompanied by a precipitation increase through the sec-
ond third of the 20'h century. While this warming trend continued into the last third of
our century, precipitation levels have shown a considerable decrease in the past three
decades.
119
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 44 Winter Half-Year temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the
decades from the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is
based on the time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the
second diagram is based on the time series for instrument observations from
the Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
3
2
U
M-H-H-10
—0—BP-H-I0
-2
-3
years
E
E
—0—BP-CS-I0
years
120
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Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 45
Winter Half-Year temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the
decades from the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is
based on the time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the
second diagram is based on the time series for instrument observations from
the Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
2
6
1.5
5.5
0.5
4_5
r
ee
t
M-H-H-5) l
4
deg
ius
--BP-H-51)
1550
61
1650
17181
lip
1 I
1850
ls
Ce
-11.5
3.5
-1
3
-1.5
2.5
2
2
years
2
382
1_5
332
0.5
—1.—M-1-1•CS-50
—41—BP-CS-50
282
E
1550
16011
1650
17011
175(1
180)
1850
1900
21010
232
-1.5
2
182
years
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Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
6.2. Summer Half-Year
I used the averages of the months from April through September to analyse the cli-
mate change trends during the 'summer' half-year period.
Temperature
Average summer half-year temperatures by decade for the duration of the period
covered by the climate history reconstruction methods are quite constant around the
'0' value marking the reference average, with the exception of some slight variations.
(Once again we are forced to disregard the sparse amount of data available for the first
half of the 1500s as statistical inadequate.) This considerably stable period from the
16" until the mid-19" century was followed by a significant cooling period in the second
half of the 19" century which continued into the first third of the 20" century, as shown
by the data of the Budapest temperature time series. The weather of the summer half-
years turned somewhat warmer in the middle of the 20" century, but there was a cool
period from the 1960s through the 1980s, which was more reminiscent of the weather
at the turn of the century. This was followed by a renewed warm trend, which has con-
tinued over the last decades of our century.
Precipitation
The summer half-year weather remained consistently wet from the early 16" century
until the late 18" century. There were some distinctly dry decades during the 16'h cen-
tury (1540s, 1580s) but the 17' and 18' centuries experienced a predominance of wet
summer half-year weather.
There was a dry trend at the turn of the 19'h century, which continued in the second
half of the 19", and continued into the 20th century, as shown by the decade and half-
century averages of the Budapest precipitation time series.
Climate Change Characteristics
The summer half-year weather from the second half of the 16" century through the
end of the 18" century exhibited stable temperatures and was slightly wet. The weather
of the summer half-years in the first half of the 19th century turned drier and slightly
warmer.
The decade and the half-century averages of the Budapest temperature time series
show that the climate of the summer half-years became significantly colder and drier
from the mid-19" until the mid-20' century. This dry trend continued in the second
half of our century as well, but the cool trend reversed into a slight warming trend in
latter decades.
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Figure 46 Summer Half-Year temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the
decades from the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is
based on the time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the
second diagram is based on the time series for instrument observations from
the Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
ABP-H-10
yam
450
400
350
t CS-H-10
100 r.)
250
200
123
- —
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 47 Summer Half-Year temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the
decades from the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is
based on the time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the
second diagram is based on the time series for instrument observations from
the Budapest observatory (1780-1996)
—111)— NYF-H-H-541
—0—NYF-H-50
e NYSCS-H-50
1554)
1600
16541
1700
—
175(1
18041
0—NYF-E-511
1 0
1000
1
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
6.3. Yearly Temperature and Precipitation Time Series
Temperature
The decade and half-century temperature averages show a predominance of cool
years from the early 16" through the late 19th century. The decades of the 16" century
which exhibited very unstable average temperatures (and which are quite poorly docu-
mented), the long cold period in the first half of the 17'h century, the milder years at
the turn of the 18th century, and the cold period of the 18" century can all be separately
defined within this predominantly cool trend. Both the historical data and the
Budapest temperature time series show that the years turned milder in the first half of
the 19" century. But this mild trend was followed first by a slightly cool period in the
mid-19'h century, and later by a significant cold period in the last third of the 19" centu-
ry. The warming trend that started early in the 20th century has continued, while
exhibiting major fluctuations, throughout our century.
Precipitation
The time series based on climate history reconstruction shows that the years from
the early 16th century through the late 18" century were constantly wet in Hungary. The
transition to drier trends started at the turn of the 19th century, and continued through
the 1860s, according to the data of the Budapest precipitation time series. The years in
the last third of the 19" and the first half of the 20'h century were mostly wet. In the
1960s a significant and stable drying trend began that continues to the present day.
Climate Change Characteristics
The years from the early 16th century through the late 18th century were moderately
cool and consistently wet. The weather in the first half of the 19'h century turned some-
what milder and less wet. The Budapest time series shows that the yearly precipitation
rates did not change considerably during the strong cooling period during the second
half of the 19th century. There was a warming trend early in the 20th century, which basi-
cally determined the climate processes of the whole century. The warming trend,
which came in with the 20" century, was not accompanied by a change in precipitation
decade averages until the 1930s. The yearly precipitation rate started to significantly
decrease from the 1940s through the end of our century.
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Figure 48 Yearly temperature and precipitation 10-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the
time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram
is based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest
observatory (1780-1996)
years
850
800
750
700
650
I
e
600
550
500
450
400
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Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Figure 49 Yearly temperature and precipitation 50-year averages over the decades from
the 16th century until today. The first diagram (1500-1850) is based on the
time series of a history based climate reconstruction, while the second diagram
is based on the time series for instrument observations from the Budapest
observatory (1780-1996)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
II
-0.2
1""
.0
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Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
7. CLIMATE CHANGE CHARACTERISTICS IN
HUNGARY DURING THE LITTLE ICE AGE AND THE
RECENT WARMING
In the last chapter of my study my goal is to summarise the most significant ele-
ments of my research regarding climate history. I will attempt to explore the inner
structure of the climate changes in the Carpathian Basin with the help of correlation
studies. Furthermore, I will endeavour to characterise the Hungarian specific features
of the climate changes in the Little Ice Age and during the recent warming, based on
the results of the climate-process-analyses and from a statistical point of view. Finally I
will establish a prognosis of the expected direction and characteristics of future
changes in climate.
7.1. Correlation Study of the Climate History and
Meteorological Monthly Time Series
From the time series based on the reconstructed climate history and the time series
based on instrument measurements, I used only the results of the correlation studies of
the temperature time series, as I found no relevant correlation within the precipitation
time series.
I selected three periods for the correlation studies, respecting traditional methods
of climate research. The first period is from 1675 and 1715, which is referred to in
European climate research as a typical period of the Little Ice Age and for which there
exists sufficient climate history information sources (unlike the situation for the last
third of the 16' century). The second period selected is the forty year period of the
recent warming trend from 1960 through the 1990s, which is also considered typical
within the discipline. Finally, I used the data for the sixty-year period from 1901
through 1960 as the control period, the averages of which are considered as a base for
reference and comparison in international meteorological research.
I used the monthly temperature averages for the correlation studies, as the time
series of the 17"-18" century could be compared with the meteorological measurement
based time series only with this as a condition.
1675 1715
-
The correlation studies illustrate quite well that the cooling trend in this cold period
of the Little Ice Age is reflected most significantly in the average temperatures of the
January and February months, but it was also clear that the March temperature fol-
lowed the pattern of the two winter months. The actual transition to spring during this
period occurred between March and April, which is well reflected in the difference of
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
the average temperatures from the two winter months. The close correlation of the
April and June average temperatures is worthy of note from a climate history point of
view, i.e. the June months had nothing in common with the temperature processes of
the two other summer months. Correlation was, however, found between July and
August, as well as between July and September, but there is no correlation between the
August and September temperature time series. The correlation study of the three
autumn months reflected the same trends, and a similar movement of temperature
averages. It is also worthy of note that the December weather in this period of the
Little Ice Age became rather more like autumn, and a positive correlation can be
established to the temperature changes of the October and November months. The
result was negative however when attempting to correlate December with the winter-
like March months.
Based on my correlation studies it seems that the structure of the natural seasons
changed in this expansive period of the Little Ice Age. The truly cold weather began
early in January, but often ended as late as the end of March. Spring started with
April, but in reality June also became a spring month. The summer period was reduced
to July and August. The normally transitory weather of autumn, on the other hand,
continued from September till December.
Table 3
Correlation studies between the monthly temperature time series from 1675-
1715. The values in darker shading show a 99 %, while those in lighter shad-
ing reflect a 95 %, significance level.
1675- Jan
Feb.
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1715
Jan
1
-0.264 -0.243 -0.286 -0.154 0.226
-0.086 -0.016 56
Feb.
-0.183 -0.242 -0.061 -0.052
-0.055 0.191
-0.111
1
-0.099 0.162 0.224 0.099 0.118
-0.023 -0.060
-0.099 1
0.222
0.107 0.026 0.008 0.038 0.144
-0.025
May
-0.264 -0.183 0.162 0.222 1
0.124
0.004 -0.225 0.219 -0.110 0.125
0.025
Jun
-0.243 -0.242 0.224
0.124
1
0.270 0.056 0.257 0.098 0.268 0.090
Jul
-0.286 -0.061 0.099 0.107 0.004 0.270
Aug
-0.154 -0.052 0.118 0.026 -0.225 0.056
Sep.
0.226
0.008 0.219 0.257
Oct
-0.086 -0.055 -0.023 0.038 -0.110 0.098
Nov
-0.016 0.191
-0.060 0.144 0.125
0.268
Dec
-0.156 -0.111
-0.025 -0.025 0.090
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
1901-1960
The strong correlation between January and February was remarkable in this 60-
year period as well, but there is no real correlation between the March or April tem-
perature time series. It is, however, quite interesting to observe the significant negative
correlation between the January and June months. The February time series is a good
indicator of the winter and spring temperature process, as it has significant positive
correlation with the time series of each month between January and April.
Analysing the summer months, the relative 'isolation' of the June months and the
strong common move of the 'summer season' July-August-September becomes appar-
ent. It is quite interesting that there is a significant positive correlation between the
July and June, and July and May months respectively.
There are not any very significant correlations between the autumn months, and it is
worth noting that the December temperature time series shows no significant correla-
tion with any other month.
The results of the correlation studies seem to prove that the contrasts between the
seasons decreased during the sixty years analysed. Winters are not so strongly delineat-
ed from the spring, as was experienced during the Little Ice Age. The period of the
summer weather became longer and lasted from May till the end of September.
Table 4
Correlation studies between the temperature time series by month between 1901
and 1960. The values in darker shading show a 99 %, while those in lighter
shading show a 95 %, significance level.
1901- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1960
Jan
1
0.131
0.164 -0.064
0.012 -0.026 -0.211 -0.116 -0.098 -0.145
rt.
Feb.
1
-0.005 -0.067 0.129 -0.091 -0.231 -0.160 0.064
-0.071
Mar.
0.131
1
0.177 -0.053 0.034 -0.008 0.102 -0.070
1Z1 0.021 0.114
Apr
0.164
0.177
1
0.073
0.044 0.243 0.163
0.231
-0.160 0.058
0.040
May
-0.064 -0.005 -0.053 0.073
1
0.109
0.094 0.123
-0.009 -0.023 0.166
Jun
-0.067 0.034
-0.044 0.109
1
0.097 0.013
-0.129 0.049 0.017
Jul
0.012 0.129
-0.008 0.243
1
0.150 -0.238 0.140
-0.108
Aug
-0.026 -0.091 -0.102 0.163 0.094 0.097
1
0.154 0.198 -0.014
Sep.
-0.211 -0.231 -0.070 0.231
0.123 0.013
0.150
1
0.013
Oct
-0.116 -0.160
-0.160 -0.009 -0.129 -0.238 0.154
1
0.198
0.018
Nov
-0.098 0.064 0.021
0.058 -0.023 0.049 0.140 0.198
0.198
1
0.048
Dec
-0.145 -0.071 0.114 0.040 0.166 0.017
-0.108 -0.014 0.013
0.018 0.048
1
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
1961-1990
In the four decades of the present warming trend, the correlation between the
January and February temperature time series decreased, but the time series of both
winter months are strongly correlated to the March temperature time series.
The other apparent interesting feature of the correlation study is that the summer
months 'diverged'. The June temperature time series correlate neither with the spring,
nor with the summer months, while the July temperature time series apparently corre-
late with no other month at all. Interestingly enough the August time series showed a
significantly positive correlation with the May time series, and a similarly significant,
but negative correlation, with the June temperature time series.
With regard to the autumn weather it is interesting to note the strong 'opposite
movement' of the November and December temperature time series.
The most important climate characteristic of the forty years analysed during the
recent warming trend is that the winter months have become remarkably 'spring-like'.
Moreover it cannot be ignored that the climatic character of summers has weakened as
well.
Table 5 Correlation studies between the temperature time series of the months
between 1961-1990. The values in darker shading show a 99 %, while those
in lighter shading show a 95 %, significance level.
1961- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1990
Jan
1
0.262
0.042 0.235 -0.296 0.024 0.250 -0.137 -0.145
0.113
Feb
0.262
1
0.0004 0.068 0.049 -0.166 0.070 -0.282 0.113 -0.081 0.231
Mar
1
-0.105 0.170 0.074 -0.229 0.136 0.010 -0.024 -0.189 0.219
Apr
0.042 0.0004 -0.105 1
0.096 0.077 0.258 0.152 -0.015 0.201
0.226 -0.271
May
0.235 0.068 0.170 0.096
1
0.035 0.272
0.086 0.019 -0.052 0.104
Jun
-0.296 0.049 0.074 0.077 0.035
1
0.090
0.077 -0.021
-0.169
Jul
0.024 -0.166 -0.229 0.258 0.272 0.090
1
0.014 0.162 -0.051 0.046 -0.048
Aug
0.250 0.070 0.136 0.152
0.014
1
0.140 -0.210 0.068 0.043
Sep
-0.137 -0.282 0.010 -0.015 0.086 0.077 0.162 0.140
1
0.265 -0.029 0.090
Oct
-0.145 0.113
-0.024 0.201
0.019 -0.021 -0.051 -0.210 0.265
1
0.037
-0.240
Nov
-0.081 -0.189 0.226 -0.052
0.046 -0.068 -0.029 0.037
1
Dec
0.113 0.231
0.219 -0.271 0.104 -0.169 -0.048 0.043 0.090 -0.240
1
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
7.2. Hungarian Features of the Climate Changes
In respect of the results of my climate history analysis, I believe I have identified
four basically new conclusions:
a.
One of the most important signs of the climatic changes in the Carpathian Basin is
the change in the duration and defining time limits of the 'natural seasons'. March
practically turned into a winter month during the Little Ice Age, while June was more
like a spring month and the summer period was limited to July and August. Due to the
recent warming trend, the weather of the winter months became more spring-like,
while the summer months separate climate character was detracted from.
b.
Analysing the temperature and precipitation time series of the seasons it becomes
apparent that, with the exception of summer, all the turned cooler and colder, respec-
tively from the second half of the 16' century until the end of the 18th century. The
picture is even simpler with regard to the precipitation time series, as all four seasons
were predominantly wet from the second half of the 16'h till the end of the 18th centu-
ry. The 19' century brought a transitory period from a weather point of view, but there
were cooling trends in all four seasons in the second half of the century. The average
temperatures of springs, autumns and winters began to rise significantly from the turn
of the 20" century, and trend which also established itself in summers in the second
half of the 20'h century.
All four seasons were mostly wet from the second half of the 16'' century until the
end of the 18'' century. Precipitation levels decreased for all four seasons during the
first half of the 19" century as springs and summers became dry. The Budapest time
series shows that the trends of the precipitation time series for autumns, winters and
springs were the same with regard to long-term century precipitation trends. Winters,
springs and autumns turned wetter in the first half of the 20th century compared to the
second half of the 19 1h century, but there is a strong drying trend in the second half of
our century which relates to all three of these seasons. The curve of the summer pre-
cipitation time series goes in the opposite direction of that for the other three seasons
for this one hundred and fifty years. The wet summers in the second half of the 19th
century were followed by significantly drier seasons in the first half of the 20th century,
while the second half of our century became wetter again.
c.
The climate regime of the Little Ice Age characterised by cool and wet weather
determined the climate in the Carpathian Basin from the second half of the 16'h centu-
ry until the end of the 18" century, as shown by the temperature and precipitation time
series for the whole year. Good proof of the water-balance change is that water-level
of Lake Balaton was 4 m higher that period than nowadays. The following one hun-
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
dred and fifty years, from the first half of the 19 1h century until the middle of the 20'h
century, exhibited weather of a transitory nature, during which milder and cooler, and
wetter and drier decades followed one another. The climate regime of the recent
warming period characterised by warm and dry weather appears to develop at the mid-
dle of the 20th century.
d.
The danger of the recent warming increases, while forecasting its rate and ultimate
intensity becomes more difficult, due to the fact that it is the result of both natural
environmental processes and industrial activities. The issue is further complicated as
the effects of these two factors effectively reinforce each other. In summarising the cli-
mate changes by century over the last two thousand years, one can venture to state that
the recent warming trend that can be attributed to natural-environmental reasons
would normally last for about 300-500 years, of which 140 years have already passed.
However we do not have the data that would be required to properly factor in the past
and present anthropogen effects, nor can the effects of future human activity, on the
process of climate change be properly estimated. My research results imply that it is
advisable to prepare for a climate characterised by warming and drying trends in the
foreseeable future. Furthermore the implication is clear that we should expect that the
frequency of winter half-year warm anomalies and the summer half-year dry anomalies
will probably rise as well. It is these circumstances that will presumably determine the
vital conditions of people living in the Carpathian Basin for a long to come.
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Discussion Papers, No. 28.
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Bar6ti Lajos (1893-96, 1900-04): Adattar Delmagyarorszag XVIII.szazadi
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kiadta: Benko Jozsef, Nagyszeben
Bielz Chronicle Collection; Bielz, E.A. (1862-63): Beitrag zur Geschichte merkwOrdi-
ger Naturbegebenheiten in Sieben()Orgen, Nagyszeben
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Veranderungen der Erdoberflache. Gotha 1840
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a)
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b)
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5. Trauschenfels, Dr. E. v., Deutsche Fundgruben etc. neue Folge.
Kronstadt 1860.:
a)
Album Oltardinum. Kronstadt 1526-1629.
b)
Hegyes Andreas 1562-1570 (Kronstadt), es 1603-1612, 1613-1617.
c)
NOssner, Simon 1570-1619. Helsdorf.
d)
Czauk, Simon. Ephemer Libellus, Kronstadt 1590-1602.
e)
Weiss, Michael, 1590-1615. Kronstadt
f)
Banfi, Peter, 1599-1616. Kronstadt
134
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Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
g)
Hermann, Michael, 16314660. Kronstadt
h)
Irthell, Johann. 1628-1710. Hermannstadt.
6. Archiv des Vereins filr siebenbUrgische Landeskunde. IV. Nachrichten von
den ehemals in den alten grossen Kirchen zu Hermannstadt und Kronstadt
befindlichen Wandchroniken:
a)
in Hermannstadt 1409-1556.
b)
in Kronstadt 1143-1590.
7. Desselben neue Folge, III. Band. Mittheilung fiber eM Medwischer Stadtbuch
aus den 16. und 17. Jahrhunderten von Josef Freiherrn Bedeus von Scharberg
D. Jiing
8. Trausch, Josephus, Chronicon — Fuchsio — Oltardinum editit Brasso 1847.
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Begebenheiten im Burzenland von Josef Teutsch 1509-1595.
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Karpathen-Landern, Berlin 1860.
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14. Kalender aus dem Jahre 1582. (manuscript)
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Nagyszeben
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APPENDIX
Temperature indices of Hungary
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Yeiik
1500
1501
- 1
- 1
- 1
1502
1503
1504
1506
1507
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
1508
- 1
- 1
- 1
- 1
- 1
1509
1510
1511
1512
-1
- 1
- 1
1513
1514
1515
1516
1
1
1
1
-1
1
1
1
1517
1518
1519
1520
1521
0
0
0
1522
-1
- 1
- 1
1523
1
1
1
1524
1525
-3
-2
1526
0
0
0
0
0
0
1527
1528
1529
0
0
-2
0
0
- 1
- 1
1530
1
- 1
0
0
1531
1532
0
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
1533
1534
-2
-2
-2
1535
1536
0
0
0
1537
1538
142
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Year
1539
2
-1
2
- 1
0
1540
2
2
1541
2
1
1
2
1
1542
1543
-2
0
-2
0
- 1
1544
-1
-1
- 1
1545
1546
1547
1548
1549
3
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1550
0
- 1
0
-1
1551
2
2
2
-3
2
2
-2
1
1552
-1
0
-1
- 1
0
0
1553
-1
2
-1
2
1
1554
1555
2
2
2
2
1556
2
2
-1
2
1
2
1557
- 1
-3
-1
-2
1558
-3
1559
1
- 1
- 1
0
-1
0
1560
-3
-1
0
-3
-1
-2
1561
- 1
2
-1
1
1562
2
2
2
2
2
1563
2
-1
-1
1564
1
-1
0
0
0
0
-1
0
-1
0
0
0
1 1565
-2
-3
-3
-2
-1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-3
-3
0
-1
-3
1566
1
0
0
-1
-1
2
0
0
- 1
0
1567
-2
-3
0
0
2
3
0
2
-
-
1568
2
0
0
2
0
1
1569
0
0
0
1570
1571
1
1
1
1572
1573
1574
1575
-3
-2
-2
1576
1577
1578
0
0
0
1579
0
1
0
0
0
0
1580
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
143
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jut , Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Year
1581
1582
1583
2
2
2
1584
1585
0
0
0
3
2
0
0
2
1
1
1586
-1
1
-
-1
1587
1588
1589
1
1590
1
1
1
1591
1592
0
1593
0
0
1
-
0
0
0
1594
-2
0
-1
-2
1
-
-2
1595
1
1
-
-2
0
-2
-1
1596
0
0
0
0
0 0
1597
-1
1
-
-1
-2
1
-
-2
-2
1598
1
1
-
1
-
0
1
1
-
0
0
1599
-1
1
-
1
-
1600
0
1
-
-2
1
-
-2
-1
1601
3
-
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-
1602
1
-1
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
-1
1
1603
-1
-1
-1
1
-1
-1-1
1604
0
1
0
0
1605
0
0
0
1606
-1
-2
-1
2
-
-2
1607
2
2
3
2
2
2
1608
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1609
1610
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1611
-1
-1
-
1612
0
-1
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
1613
1
0
1
-
2
0
-1
0
1614
1
-
0
-3
0
-2
-1
1615
-1
0
1
-
0
0
1616
-1
0
1
-
0
0
1617
1
1
I
1618
0
0
2 0
0
1
1619
1
-
0
-1
3
-1
0
0
1
-
- 1
1
2
-
0
1620
0
-1
1621
-1
0
0
-1
0
0
1622
1
1
-
-
2
1
1
-
-
2
0
144
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Year
1623
1624
1
1
1
1625
-1
-1
-1
1626
1627
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1628
0
-1
0
1629
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1630
-1
-1
-1
-1
1631
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
1632
-1
-2
-1
-2
-2
1633
-1
0
-1
0
0
1634
0
-3
0
-2
-
1635
-2
-1
-1
-2
-1
-1
-2
1636
1
-1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
0
1
0
-1
0
1637
0
-1
-1
-1 1
1
1 2
-1
0
-1
0
-1
0
2
-1
0
1638
-1
0
0
0
1
-1
0
-1
-1
0
0 0
0
1639
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
-1
1
-1
0
0
1
0
1640
0
0
-1
-1
0
0
1
0
1
1 -1
0
-1
0
0
0
1641
-3
0
-1
1
0
-2
0
-1
0
3
-2
0
-1
0
-1
1642
2
-1
-1
-1
-2
1
0
-1
0
0
0
-2
2
-2
0
0
0
1643
1
0
-1
-1
0
0
0
1
-1
-1
0
0
-1
0
-1
-1
1644
-1
0
0
0
-1
1
0
2
-1
-1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1645
-2
0
0
0
1
1
0
-2
0
0
0
-1
1646
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
0
1647
-1
-1
-1
1648
0
0
-1
0
0
0
1649
0
0
0
0
0
1650
-1
-1
0
1
1
1
-1
0
1
1651
-2
0
1
0
0
1652
0
-3
-3
0
0
0
-2
-2
0
0
-2
1653
0
1
-1
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
1654
-1
0
0
0
-1
0
-1
0
0
0
0
1655
-2
-1
0
0
-1
-1
0
0
-1
1656
-2
0
0
0
0
-2
0
0
-
1657
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
1658
-1
-1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1659
1
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
-1
0
-1
0
-1
1660
-2
0
0
0
0
-1
-1
-2
0
0
-1
-1
1661
1
-1
3
-1
0
-1
2
0
1662
-1
0
0
0
-1
0
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
1663
1
1
0
-2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
1664
-1
1
0
-1
-1
0
0
1
0
-1
1
1
0
-1
0
0
0
145
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Year
1665
-1
0
-1
-1
1
0
0
1
0
-1
0
-1
0
0
0
1666
0
-1
-2
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
1
0
-1
0
0
0
1667
-1
0
-1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1 -1
0
0
0
1
0
1668
0
1
0
-2
-1
1
0
0
0
1
0
-2
0
0
- 1
1669
-3
1
1 -1
0
1
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
1670
-1
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
0
0
1671
-1
-1
0
-1
0
-1
0
1672
-1
0
1
-1
-1
-1
1673
0
0
1
0
0
0
1674
-1
1
-1
-1
-1
1
-1
-1
-1
1675
-1
-1
-2
-1
-1
0
1
-2
-1
0
-2
1676
0
0
0
-2
0
-1
0
0
-2 0
-1
-1
1677
1
1
-1
0
-1
0
1
0
-1
0
0
0
1
-1
0
0
0
1678
1
1 0
-1
0
1
1 2
1
1
1
1 1
0
2
1
1
1679
0
-1
1
0
-1
0
1
1
0
0
-1
-1 0
0
1
0
0
1680
-1
-1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
0
0
1681
-1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1682
1
1
1
0
1
1
1683
-1
-1
-2
0
1
-1
2
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
-
1684
-2
-2
0
1
1
0
1
1
2
0
1
1
0
1685
-3
-3
-2
1
1
1
0
-2
0
0
1
-1
0
-1
-2
1686
1
0
2
-1
-1
-1
1
0
-2
-1
0
-1
0
0
1681
-1
0
0
0
1
0
1
-1
0
0
1
0
1688
-1
-1
0
1
2
1
1
-1
1
1
-
2
0
0
1689
-2
1
-1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1690
0
-1
0
1
0
-1
0
0
0
-1
0
1691
1
-1
-2
-1
-1
-1
0
0
-1
-1
-1
1
0
-2
0
-1
-1
1692
-1
0
-1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1693
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
2
0
0
1
1
1694
-2
-1
-1
0
0
1
-1
1
-1
0
0
1
-1
0
1
0
0
1695
-2
0
0
-1
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1696
1
1
-1
-2
-1
0
-1
1
1
0
0
2
-
0
1
0
1697
-2
-2
-2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
2
-
0
0
1
-
-1
1698
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
1699
1
-1
0
0
1
-1
0
0
0
1700
0
0
-1
-2
0
-1
0
-1
0
0
0
2
1
0
-
-
1
-
1701
0
0
-1
3
3
2
2
1
0
1
3
2
2
-
1702
1
3
1
-1
0
-1
1
1 -1
-1
-1
-1
2
0
0
1
0
-
1703
1
0
1
1
2
2
-1
-2
2
0
1
0
0
2
1
-
1
1704
-1
1
-
-1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1705
-1
-2
-1
0
-1
-1 0
2
-2
1
1
1
2
-
1
1
0
-
-1
1706
-1
-1
-
146
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Year
1707
0
1
-1
-2
2
1
2
1
0
0
1
1
2
1
0
0
-
-
1708
1
2
1
0
0
-1
-1
1
2
0
2
0
2
0
-1
2
1
1709
2
2
1
1 -1
1
1
1
0
0
0
-1
-2
0
1
0
0
-
-
-
1710
-1
-1
2
1
3
3
-1
-1
1
2
3
1
-
-
1711
-1
0
0
3
-1
1
-1
1
0
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
-
1712
1
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-1
0
1
1
-1
-
-
-
1713
1
2
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
2
-2
1
1
-1
-
-
-
-
1714
0
0
1715
0
0
1
0
0
-
1716
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1717
1
1
1
1
1 0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
-
-
-
-
1718
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
-
-
-
-
1719
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1720 ' 1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
-
- 1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1721E 1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
-
-
-
1722
1
0
-1
-1
1
0
0
1
1 0
0
1
1
0
0
0
-
-
1723
-1
1
-1
-1
-2
-1
0
0
0
1
1
0
-1
-2
0
-1
-1
-
-
-
1724
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
-
-
-
-
1725
-1
-2
-2
1
1
1
1
-2
0
0
0
0
-2
-2
0
0
-2
-
-
1726
1
0
1
0
2
2
0
-1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-
-
1727
2
1
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
-1 0
-1
1
2
1
0
1
0
-
-
1728
1
-1
2
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
2
0
0
1
-
1729
0
1
0
0
-1
1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1730
-1
1
1
-1
-1
0
1
-1
-2
-2
0
-1
0
0
-2
-1
1731
-2
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
1732
0
-1
0
-1
-1
1733
0
0
-1
-1
1
0
-1
-1
-1
1734
1
1
-1
0
0
-1
0
1
-1
0
0
0
1735
1
1
0
0
1
-1
0
0
0
-1
0
-
1736
1
1
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
-
1737
-1
-2
1
0
-2
0
-1
-
1738
-1
0
1
-1
0
0
1739
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
1
0
-1
-1
-1
1740
-2
-2
1
-2
-1
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
-2
0
0
-2
-
1741
1
1
1
0
-1
-1
1
-1
0
-1
0
-
1742
0
-1
-1
0
0
1
-1
0
0
-1
0
0
0
1743 ' -2
0
-1
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
1744' -1
-1
0
2
0
0
0
0
-1
1
0
0
0
1745 ' -2
-1
1
0
0
-1
-2
0
0
1
-1
-
1746
-1
0
-1
0
-1
0
- 1
1747
0
1
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
-1
0
0
1748
-1
-1
1
0
-1
0
0
0
147
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Year
1749
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1750
-1
-1
0
1751
1
0
0
0
0
-
-
- 1
0
1752 M 0
0
1753
-1
0
-1
0
0
0
0
1754
-1
-1
-1
0
0
-2
-1
0
0
1755
-2
0
0
0
2
0
-2
1
1
0
1756
0
0
-1
-1
0
0
1757
0
1
0
0
1758
0
0
0
1
0
0
1759
-1
-2
0
0
0
1
-1
0
0
0
-1
1760
-2
-1
-1
1
-2
1
0
1761
1
-2
-1
1
0
1
-2
0
0
1762
0
0
-1
-1 0
0
0
-1
0
0
1763
0
2
-2
-1
3
2
0
0
1
0
-2
3
0
0
1764
2
2
-2
0
-1
0
0
0
2
-1
-1
0
0
1765
1
0
1
-1
-1
0
0
1
1
-1
1
0
0
0
0
1766
0
-1
-1
0
0
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1767
-1
0
-2
0
-1
-2
-1
1
0
-1
-2
1
-1
1768
-1
-1
-2
-1
-1
0
1
1
1
-1
-2
1
-1
1769
1
0
1
-1
-1
0
0
-1
1
0
0
0
0
1770
0
0
-1
-1
2
0
0
1
0
-1
1
0
1771
2
0
-1
-2
1
-1
0
-1
1
-1
1
-1
-1
0
0
1772
2
1
-1
0
0
0
2
-1
0
0
0
1773
-2
-1
1
0
1
0
1
-1
0
0
0
1774
-1
0
0
1
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
0
1775
0
1
-2
-2
-2
0
0
0
-2
-1
-1
1776
2
1
-1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1777
0
0
-1
-1
-2
0
-1
1
0
0
-1
0
-1
1778
-1
-1
-1
0
0
3
1
0
-1
-1
1
0
2
-1
0
1779
1
1
1
0
0
-1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1780
-1
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
-1
0
1
0
-1
-1 0
-1
1781
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
3
3
-1 0
-2
-1
2
1
0
1782
-1
-1
-1
0
1
3
3
-1
1
-2
-1
-2
3
-1
0
1783
1
1
1 -1
0
1
2
0
-1
1
-1
-1
2
0
1
1784
-1
-2
-2
-1
1
1
2
1
-1
0
0
2
0
-1
1785
-1
-3
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
0
0
-1
-2
1786
0
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
0
0
1
-1
0
0
0
1787
0
-1
0
-1
-1
0
0
-1
0
-1
0
0
-1
0
0
0
1788
2
-
-
-
-3
0
0
2
0
1789
-1
0
-1
-1
1
0
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-2
0
0
-1
-1
1790
-1
- 1
0
1
1 0
0
0
0
0
148
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Year
1791
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
1
2
-1
-1
-1
1
1
0
1
-1
0
1792
0
0
0
-1
-1
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
1
0
0
1793
-1
0
-1
-1
0
-1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
1
0
0
1794
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
1
0
0
1795
-1
-1
-1
0
-1
0
0
0
0
0
-1
0
-1
-1
0
0
-1
1796
1
1 -1
0
0
0
0
-1
-1 0
0
1
0
0
-1
1797
-1
1
0
0
3
1
2
0
2
0
0
0
0
2
2
1
2
i798
0
0
-1
0
0
0
1
2
1
-1
-1
-1
0
0
2
0
1799
-2
-1
0
-1
-1
-1
0
1
-1
0
-1
-2
-2
-1
0
-1
-2
1800
0
0
-2
0
1
1
1 0
-1
-1
0
-1
0
1
-1
0
1801
- 1
1
- 1
0
- 1
0
0
0
1
0
- 1
0
0
1802
0
-1
-2
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
-1
1
1803
-1
-1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
-1
0
1
0
0
0
1804
2
0
-1
0
-1
0
0
0
-2
0
0
-1
0
-1
-1
1805
0
-1
1
0
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1806
1
2
-1
0
-1
1
1
0
0
0
1807 ' 0
0
-1
0
0
1
2
0
0
0
2
1
1808
1
-1
0
0
0
0
-1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
1809
0
1
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
0
1
0
-1
0
0
1810
1
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
1
1 0
-1
1
-1
0
0
0
1811
-2
0
1
0
0
1
2
0
1
2
1
-1
0
1
2
1
1812
-1
1
0
-2
-1
0
0
0
-1
0
-1
-2
0
-2
0
-1
-1
1813
-3
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
-1
0
0
-3
0
-1
0
-2
1814 f 1
-1
1
-1
-1
-1
0
0
-1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1815
0
1
- 1
0
- 1
0
0
0
- 1
- 1
- 1
- 1
1
- 1
0
- 1
0
1816
-1
-2
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
0
0
-1
0
-2
-1
-1 0
-2
1817
1
2
0
-1
1
2
2
1
1
0
1
1 1
0
2
1
2
1818
1
3
-1
0
0
0
0
-1
0
-1
-1 -1
2
0
0
-1
0
1819
-1
0
0
0
-1
0
-1
0
1
2
-1
1
-1
0
0
1
0
1820
0
1
-2
0
-1
-1
1
2
1
1
1
0
1
-2
1
1
0
1821
1
1
-1
1
0
-2
-1
0
0
0
2
1
1
0
1
0
1822
2
1
-1
1
1 1
1
2
1
1 1
-2
2
0
2
1
2
1823
-1
0
1
-2
0
0
0
1
0
-1
0
1
-1
0
0
0
0
1824
2
2
-2
-2
-1
1
1
2
0
0
1
1
2
-2
2
0
-1
1825
2
1
-2
1
-1
-1
-1
0
-1
-2
1
3
2
0
-1
-1
0
1826
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
-2
0
0
-1
1827
1
0
0
1
0
1
2
1
0
1
-1
1
1 0
1
0
1
1828
0
0
-1
0
1
1
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
1829
1
-1
-1
0
-3
-1
0
0
0
0
-2
-2
0
-2
0
-1
-1
!;
' 1830
-2
-2
-2 -1
3
1
3
2
1
0
0
1
-3
0
3
0
0
1831
0
0
-1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
1
0
1
0
0
-1
0
0
1832
2
0
-1
-1
-1
-2
-1
0
0
1
0
0
1
-1
-2
0
-1
149
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Year
1833
-2
0
-1
-1
2
2
-1
-2
-1
1
0
1
-1
0
-1
0
-1
1834
3
2
-2
-1
-1
3
3
3
2
0
0
1
3
-2
3
1
2
1835
1
2
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
0
0
1
1
-1
2
-1
-
0
0
0
1836
1
0
1
-1
-2
1
1
0
-
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
-
-
0
1837
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
-
-
-
-
-
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
-
-
-
1838
1
0
-2
1
-
-
1
0
0
-2
2
0
0
1
0
-1
1
-1
-
1839
1
1
-2
-2
-1
2
3
2
1
1
1
1
1 -2
3
1
1
1840
1
1
-2
1
1
1
0
-
-
-
-1
1
-1
1
2
1
-2
-1
0
-
-1
1841
1
-1
1
1
1
1
2
2
-
0
2
1
2
-1
0
2
2
1
1842
0
-1
-1
-2
-1
0
-1
1
0
-1
0
1
0
-2
0
0
-1
1843
2
3
-2
-1
1
1
-1
-
-
-1
-1
0
1
2
-2
-1
0
0
1844
1
0
-1
-1
1
0
1
1
-
-
0
0
1
1
0
-1
0
0
1845
2
0
-2
0
-1
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
-2
0
1846
2
2
1
1
1
1
-
-
1
1
0
2
0
0
2
0
1
1
2
1847
1
1
-2
-1
1
-1
0
0
-1
0
0
1
1
1
-
0
1848
-2
1
-1
-1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
-1
1
0
1849
0
1
-1
-1
-1
0
1
1
0
1
-
1
0
1
-
-1
0
0
0
1850
1
0
-2
-1
-1
1
-
1
2
-1
0
0
2
Precipitation indices of Hungary
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Year
1500
1501
1
1
1
1502
1503
1504
1505
1506
1507
1
1
1
1
1
1508
2
2
2
2
2
1509
1510
1511
1512
1
1
1
1513
1514
1515
1516
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1517
150
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan Feb -M.IY Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov, Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Year
1518
1519
1520 '
1521
1
1
1
1522 .
1
1
1523
0
0
0
1524
1525
0
0
0
1526
1
2
1
2
1
1
1527
1528
1529
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1530
0
2
1
1
1531
1532
1
-
3
0
2
3
3
3
0
-
-
1533
, 1534 '
1
1
1
1535
1536
1
1
1
. 1537
1538
1539
0
1
0
1
0
1540
2
2
-1
-
-
1541
0
0
0
0
0
0
1542
1543
1
2
1
2
1
1544
1
1
1
1545
1546
1547
1548
1549
-3
-1
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
- 2
1550
1
0
-1
0
0
-
1551
-2
-2
-2
0
-2
-2
0
-2
1552
3
1
1
2
1
1
1553
0
0
0
0
0
1554 ,
1555 -p 0
0
0
0
' 1556
0
0
0
0
0
0
1557
0
0
0
1558
0
1559
-1
1
1
0
1
0
151
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Year
1560
0
0
0
0
0
0
1561
0
0
0
0
1562
-2
1
-2
-1
1563
0
1564
1
1
0
1
0
3
0
0
1
0
2
1565
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1566
0
0
2
0
1
0
0
2
1
1
1567
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
1568
0
0
0
0
0
0
1569
1
0
1
0
1570
1571
1
1
1
1572
1573
1574
1575
0
0
0
1576
1577
1578
1
1
1579
1
0
0
1
0
0
1580
-2
1
-2
-2
-2
-2
2
-
1581
1582
1583
0
0
0
1584
1585
-2
1
1
-2
-
-2
1
-2
-1
-1
-2
1586
1
1
1
1587
1588
1589
1
1590
0
0
0
0
1591
1592
1
1593
1
1
0
1
1
1
1594
0
2
2
1
1
1
1595
0
0
0
0
0
0
1596
1
2
1
1
2
1
1597
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
1598
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
1599
0
0
0
1600
0
1
1 0
1
1
1601
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
152
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan FeP Mar
May Jun Jul
Sep Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Year
1602
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
1603
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1604
1
1
1
1605
1
1
1
1606
0
1
0
1
0
1607
2
0
-3
1
-2
0
1608
0
0
0
0
0
1609
1610
0
1
0
0
0
0
1611 -
1
1
1
1612
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1613
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1614
1
3
1
2
1
1
1615
0
-1
0
-1
0
1616
0
-2
0
-2
1
-
1617
1
1
1
1618
1
1
-1
1
1
0
0
1619
0
1
0
3
1
1 1
1
0
1
2
1
1
-
-
-
-
-
1620
1
1
1
1621
0
1
1
0
1
0
1622
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1623
1624
0
0
0
1625
0
0
0
1626
1627
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1628
2
0
1
1
1629
1
0
0
0
0
1630
0
0
0
0
1631
1
0
0
0
0
1632 =
0
0
0
0
0
1633
1
-3
1
-1
* 1634
-2
1
-2
1
-1
1635
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1636
0
1
0
0
-3
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
-2
0
1
0
1637
1
1
1
0
0
-1
1
-2
0
1
1
0
1. 0
0
1
1
1638
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1639
0
0
1
1
0
1
-2
-1
0
0
1
-2
0
1640
0
0
1
0
-2
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1641
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
1
1
' 1642
0
2
0
-1
0
0
1
0
1
-2
0
0
1
0
0
-1
0
1643
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
153
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma) Jun Jul Aug Sot Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sun4 Aut Year
1644
0
0
1
0
0
-1
1
-2
1
-1
0
0
0
0
-1
0
1645
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
1646
-1
1
1
0
-1
1
1
0
1647
2
1
1 li
1648
1
0
1
1
0
0
1649
1
2
2
1
2
1
1650
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1651
1
0
0
0
0
0
1652
0
0
0
1
-3
0
0
1
0
1653
0
0
1
1
1
0
-1
1
1
0
1654
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1655
2
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1656
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1657
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1658
0
0
0
2
1
1
1
0
0
2
1
1
1659
0
1
0
1
1
2
0
1
0
1
2
1660
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1661
0
0
0
0
1662
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1663
0
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
2
r
1664
0
0
-2
-1
1
1
0
1
1
1
2
1
0
-1
1
1665
1
1
1
0
1
2
2
0
1
0
1
1
1666
0
1
1
1
1
-2
-2
1
1
1
1
0
1
-2
1
0
1667
0
0
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
0
1
0
1
2
1668
1
0
0
2
1
1
2
1
1
0
1
2
2
1669
0
0
-1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1670
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1671
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1672
0
1
0
0
1673
0
1
1
0
1
1
1674
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1675
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
2
2
1676
-1
-1
-2
-2
1
1
1
-1
1
1677
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
2
1
1
1
0
1678
0
1
0
1
0
1
-1
-1
-1
1
0
0'1
0
0
1679
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
168
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1681
0
0
-1
-2
-2
0
-1
-2
1682
-3
-2
0
0
-2
-1
1683
1
0
0
1
0
0
-1
-2
1
0
-
1681 2
1
-2
0
0
1
0
1
2
2
-2
1685
1
1
0
-1
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
154
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Year
1686
-1
-2
0
-1
0
1
-2
-2
1
1 -1
0
1
-2
-1
1687
0
-1
-1
1
0
-1
0
1
0
0
0
1688
1
1
-1
0
3
0
0
1
1
1
1
2
1
-
-
1689.
1
0
0
2
0
0
-1
2
1
1
0
1
0
1
1690
1
1
1
-2
1
1
1
1
0
0
-
1691
1
0
0
1
0
2
1
-1
0
1
1 0
0
1
0
0
1692
1
1
1
0
1
1 1
-2
-1
1
1
1
2
0
-
1693
1
0
0
1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1694
2
1
0
1
0
1
1
-1
1
0
1
1 1
0
1
1
1
1695
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
0
1
1 0
1
1
1
1696
-1
-2
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
1 0
0
0
-
1697
2
1
0
0
0
-1
1
1
1
2
0
0
1
1
1698
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1699
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1700
0
0
1
1
2
1
1 1
2
2
0
2
1
2
2
1701
0
0
0
-1
-2
-2
1
1
0
0
2
0
-1
-
1702
1
-1
-1
0
0
1
0
0
-1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1703
0
0
0
0
-1
-1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1704
1
0
1
-1
-1
-2
0
-1
-1
-1
0
0
-1
-2
-1
-2
1705
-1
-2
1
1
2
1
2
-1
2
-1
0
0
1
2
1
1
1
-
1706
0
0
1
-1
1
0
-1
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1707
1
-1
2
2
-1
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
2
0
1
1708
1
2
1
1
-1
3
1
0
-2
0
0
1
2
0
2
0
2
1709
1
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
0
1
2
2
1
1 0
1
2
-
1710
-1
0
-2
0
-3
-3
1
0
0
0
3
1
-1
-
1711
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
1 0
0
1
1
1
1
1712
3
0
0
2
0
0
2
1
1
1
1
1713
0
2
0
2
1
1 1
1
0
1
1 1
1 2
1
1
1714
1
1
1715
-2
1
0
0
0
1716
1
0
-1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1717
-1
1
-1
-1
0
0
1
1
2
1
0
1
0
1
1
2
1
-
1718
0
-1
0
-1
-1
-1
0
-1
1
0
0
1
1
0
-1
-
-
1719
1
1
1
2
1
-1
1
0
0
-1
0
0
1
2
0
0
1
1720
0
1
0
0
0
-1
0
2
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1721
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
1722
0
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
-
1723
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1724
0
0
1
1
-1
-2
0
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
-2
0
-1
1725
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
2
1
1 0
1
0
1
2
1
1
1726
1
1
0
0
-2
-2
0
0
-2
0
1
-1
1
-1
-1
-
1727
1
1
1
1
-2
1
2
2
2
1
1
0
1
0
2
2
2
155
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Year
1728
0
0
0
0
1
-1
-2
0
0
2
1
2
0
0
-2
2
0
1729
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
1
0
0
1
1
1730
0
1
1
1
2
1
1 1
1
1
2
0
1
2
1
1731
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1732
0
1
1
0
1
0
1733
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1734
0
0
1
2
1
0
0
0
1
2
0
1
1735
0
0
2
1
0
-1
0
1
1
0
1
1736
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1737
0
2
1
1
2
1
1
1738
0
-1
0
0
-1
0
1739
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1740
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
2
-1
1
0
1
0
0
2
0
1
1741
0
0
0
0
-1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1742
0
1
1
-2
1
1
1
1
0
1
-2
1
0
1743
-1
0
1
1
1
-1
0
1
0
0
1744
0
-1
1
-2
-1
1
1
1
0
-1
1
1
0
1745
0
0
0
2
-1
0
0
1
-1
0
0
1746
1
-1
-1
-2
0
-2
-1
1747
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1748
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
1749
0
0
0
0
0
1750
0
1
0
1
0
1751
0
1
0
2 2
1
1
0
0
1
1
2
1
1752
-1
0
0
1753
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1754
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
1755
0
0 -1
-1
-2
0
0
-1
-1
-1
1756
0
0
1
1
0
1
-1
1757
1
1
1
1
1758
2
1
1 1
0
2
1759
0
0
-1
-2
1
1
0
1
0
-1
0
1760
0
-2
-2
0
0
-2
0
-1
1761
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
1762
1
1
1
0
-1
-1
-2
1
-1
0
1763
1
-2
0
0
-2
-2
1
1
1
-1
0
-2
1
-1
1764
1
0
0
0
0
1
2
2
2
1
0
0
2
1
1765
1
2
0
0
0
1
1
-1
0
-1
0
2
0
0
0
1
1766
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
1767
0
1
2
1
1
2
2
0
1
2
2
0
2
1768
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1769
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
156
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan Fed} Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Win Spr Sum Aut Year
1770:0
0
1
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
2
1
1771
2
0
0
0
-1
2
1
1
0
0
1
0
2
0
1
1772
1
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
-1
0
1773
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
0
1
0
1774
2
1
0
-1
0
1
-1
0
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
1
1775
0
0
0
2
2
2
1
0
2
1
1776
0
2
1
0
0
-2
-2
1
0
2
0
-2
0
1777
1
1
1
1
0
2
0
0
0
1
1
1
1 0
1
1778
1
-1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1 -1
2
0
0
0
0
0
1779
0
0
0
-1
-1
0
0
-2
-1
2
2
1
-1
0
-1
0
1780
0
0
0
1
1
2
1
2
1
-1
2
1
1
2
1
1781
0
2
0
-2
-1
2
0
-2
-2
1
1
0
2
-2
0
0
0
1782
0
0
2
1
0
-2
-2
-2
2
1
2
1
0
2
-2
2
1
1783
1
0
0
-1
-1 0
0
1
1
-1
-1 0
1
-1
0
0
0
1784
1
1
0
1
0
0
-1
-2
-1
1
1
1 1
0
-2
0
0
1785
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
2
1
2
0
0
1
2
1
1786
1
1 0
1
1
2
1
1
0
1
1
1 2
1
2
1
2
1787
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1 1
1
1
1
1
1788
2
0
0
-1
0
0
-2
-2
0
1
1
2
1
0
-2
1
0
1789
0
1
1 0
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1790
1
1
0
-1
0
-1
0
-1
0
1
1
2
1
0
-1
1
0
1791
1
0
1
0
0
1
-1
-2
-1
0
1
1 1
0
-1
0
0
1792
1
1
1
-1
0
1
1
0
1
1 0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1793
1
-1
0
-1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1794
-1
0
-3
-2
0
1
-1
-2
2
1
1
1
0
-3
-1
2
-1
1795
1
0
0
0
0
-1
1
0
-1
0
1
1 1
0
0
0
0
1796
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
-1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1797
0
1
1
1
-2
-1
-2
-1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
-2
0
-1
1798
1
1
1
-1
0
0
1
-1
-1
-1
0
1
1
0
0
-1
0
1799
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1 1
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1800
1
0
0
1
-1
0
-1
-1
0
-1
0
1
0
-1
0
0
1801
0
0
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
2
2
2
1802
0
0
-2
-1
0
0
-2
-3
0
0
0
-2
0
-3
-2
1803
1
1
0
0
1
2
1
1
-2
0
0
0
1
0
2
-1
1
1804
0
2
1
1
1
1 -2
1
0
0
1
1
-1
0
0
1805
-1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
ti- 1806
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1807
0
-1
0
-2
1
-2
-2
0
0
-2
-2
- 2
1808
0
0
-1
-3
1
2
0
0
0
-2
1
1
1809
0
1
0
1
-1
1
2
2
1
0
1
0
2
1
0- 1810
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
-2
-2
-1
0
0
0
-2
-2
-2
1811
0
0
0
0
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
0
0
0
-1
-2
-1
-2
157
Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future.
Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p.
Discussion Papers, No. 28.
Jan Feb M
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Sum Aut Year
1812
0
0
0
-1
0
-1
-1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
1813
0
0
1
-2
0
0
1
1
2
1
0
0
1
1 0
1814
0
0
-1
0
1
2
1
0
0
0 0
0
2
0
0
1815
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1816
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1817
0
0
0
0
-1
0
-2
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
-1
1
0
1818
0
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-1
1
2
0
0
0
0
-1
-1
1
0
1819
0
0
-1
-1
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
-1
1
0
0
1820
0
0
0
0
0
2
-1
-2
-1
1
1
0
0
0
-1
1
0
1821
-1
-2
0
1
0
2
1
0
0
1
0
0
-1
0
2
0
0
1822
-1
0
1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2 -1
-1
-1
0
0
-1
-2
-1
-2
1823
1
1
-2
1
0
1
0
-1
-1
-2
0
0
1
-1
0
-2
-1
1824
0
0
0
-1
0
0
-1
-2
-2
-1
0
0
0
0
-2
-2
-2
1825
0
0
-1
-2
-2
1
2
1
1
2
0
0
0
-2
2
1826
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
-1
-1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1827
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-2
-1
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
-2
-1
-2
1828
0
0
0
0
-1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1829
0
0
1
-1
2
1
-1
-1
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1830
1
1
0
0
0
-1
-2
-2
-1
-1
0
1
1
0
-2
-1
-1
1831
0
0
0
0
1
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
1
1832
0
-1
-2
0
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-2
0
1
0
0
-1
-2
-1
1833
0
0
1
0
-2
-3
2
2
2
0
1
1
0
0
0
2
1834
0
0
0
-1
-1
-3
-3
-3
-2
0
0
0
0
-1
-3
-1
-2
1835
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
-1
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
0
1836
-1
0
0
-1
0
-2
-2
-2
-2 -1
1
1 -1
0
-2
-1
-2
1837
0
0
0
0
2
3
2
-1
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
1838
3
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
1
1839
1
1
1
1
2
-2
-3
-2
0
0
0
1
1
2
-3
0
0
1840
0
0
1
0
-1
0
1
1
0
2
1
0
0
0
1
2
1
1841
0
0
0
-1
-2
-1
-1
-2
0
0
0
2
0
-2 0
-2
1842
1
0
0
-2
1
-1
-2
-2
0
1
1
1
1
0
-2
1
0
1843
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1 0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1844
0
0
0
0
-1
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1845
0
0
1
0
2
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
2
1846
0
0
0
-1
-2
-2
-2 -1
1
0
0
1
0
-2
-2
0
-2
1847
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
1
2 1 1
1848
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
-1
0
1
0
-1
0
0
0
0
0
1849
0
0
0
0
1
0
-1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1850
1
0
0
0
1
-1
-1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
158
Discussion Papers 1999. No. 28.
Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past, Present and Future
The Discussion Papers series of the Centre for Regional Studies of the Hungarian Academy of
Sciences was launched in 1986 to publish summaries of research findings on regional and urban
development.
The series has 4 or 5 issues a year. It will be of interest to geographers, economists, sociologists,
experts of law and political sciences, historians and everybody else who is, in one way or another,
engaged in the research of spatial aspects of socio-economic development and planning.
The series is published by the Centre for Regional Studies.
Individual copies are available on request at the Centre.
Postal address
Centre for Regional Studies of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
P.O. Box 199,7601 PECS, HUNGARY
Phone: (36-72) 212-755,233-704
Fax: (36-72) 233-704
Director general
Gyula HORVATH
Editor
Zoltan GAL
* * *
Forthcoming in the Discussion Papers series
The Hungarian Urban Network at the End of the Second Millennium by
Pal BELUSZKY
159
Discussion Papers 1999. No. 28.
Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past, Present and Future
Papers published in the Discussion Papers series
No. 1 OROSZ, Eva (1986): Critical Issues in the Development of Hungarian Public Health
with Special Regard to Spatial Differences
No. 2 ENYEDI, Gyorgy — ZENTAI, Viola (1986): Environmental Policy in Hungary
No. 3 HAJDU, Zoltan (1987): Administrative Division and Administrative Geography in
Hungary
No. 4 SIKOS T, lamas (1987): Investigations of Social Infrastructure in Rural Settlements of
Borsod County
No. 5 HORVATH, Gyula (1987): Development of the Regional Management of the Economy
in East-Central Europe
No. 6 PALNE KOVACS, Ilona (1988): Chance of Local Independence in Hungary
No. 7 FARAGO, Laszlo — HRUBI, Laszlo (1988): Development Possibilities of Backward
Areas in Hungary
No. 8 SZORENYINE KUKORELLI, hen (1990): Role of the Accessibility in Development
and Functioning of Settlements
No. 9 ENYEDI, Gyorgy (1990): New Basis for Regional and Urban Policies in East-Central
Europe
No. 10 RECHNITZER, Janos (1990): Regional Spread of Computer Technology in Hungary
No. 11 SIKOS T., Tamas (1992): Types of Social Infrastructure in Hungary (to be not pub-
lished)
No. 12 HORVATH, Gyula — HRUBI, Laszlo (1992): Restructuring and Regional Policy in
Hungary
No. 13 ERDOSI, Ferenc (1992): Transportation Effects on Spatial Structure of Hungary
No. 14 PALNE KOVACS, Ilona (1992): The Basic Political and Structural Problems in the
Workings of Local Governments in Hungary
No. 15 PFEIL, Edit (1992): Local Governments and System Change. The Case of a Regional
Centre
No. 16 HORVATH, Gyula (1992): Culture and Urban Development (The Case of Pecs)
No. 17 HAJDU, Zoltan (1993): Settlement Network Development Policy in Hungary in the
Period of State Socialism (1949-1985)
No. 18 KOVACS, Terez (1993): Borderland Situation as It Is Seen by a Sociologist
No. 19 HRUBI, L. — KRAFTNE SOMOGYI, Gabriella (eds.) (1994): Small and medium-sized
firms and the role of private industry in Hungary
No. 20 BENKONE Lodner, Dorottya (1995): The Legal-Administrative Questions of
Environmental Protection in the Republic of Hungary
No. 21 ENYEDI, Gyorgy (1998): Transformation in Central European
Postsocialist Cities
No. 22 HAJDU, Zoltan (1998): Changes in the Politico-Geographical Position of Hungary
in the 20th Century
No. 23 HORVATH, Gyula (1998): Regional and Cohesion Policy in Hungary
No.24 BUDAY-SANTHA, Attila (1998): Sustainable Agricultural Development in the Region
of the Lake Balaton
No. 25 LADOS, Mihaly (1998): Future Perspective for Local Government Finance in
Hungary
No. 26 NAGY, Erika (1999): Fall and Revival of City Centre Retailing: Planning an Urban
Function in Leicester, Britain
No. 27 BELUSZKY, Pal (1999): The Hungarian Urban Network at the End of the Second
Millennium
No. 28 RACZ, Lajos (1999): Climate History of Hungary Since the 16th Century: Past, Present
and Future
160